Items by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #130: Greater Atlantic Bank, Reston, Virginia

  —Calculated Risk

  Note: Employment Posts today:
  Employment Report: 11K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.
  Seasonal Retail Hiring, Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers
  Unemployment: Record number Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index
  If the Economy lost Jobs, why [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 7:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #129: Benchmark Bank, Aurora, Illinois

  —Calculated Risk

  Benchmark sets new high
  (Is "down" the new "up" today?)
  Not a wanted prize
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: MB Financial Bank, National Association, Chicago, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Benchmark Bank, Aurora, Illinois Benchmark Bank, Aurora, Illinois, was closed today by [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 6:48pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failures #127 & 128: Down Goes AmTrust

  —Calculated Risk

  Wow, a bright comet...
  Giant "Amtrust-Rex" looks up.
  Annihilation
  
  Cold Winter bears down
  Many banks fall like snowflakes
  No two are alike
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: HeritageBank of the South, Albany, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Tattnall [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 6:12pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failures #125 & 126: Two more in Georgia

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  New white elephants
  Gifts to US from Sheila Bair
  No return receipt.
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, was closed [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 5:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Market Update

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  While we wait for the FDIC ... a couple of market graphs:
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.
  
  The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 4:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• If the Economy lost Jobs, why did the Unemployment Rate decline?

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  In August, when it was reported that the July unemployment rate dipped slightly to 9.4% from 9.5% in June, I pointed out that the dip in unemployment was just monthly noise: Jobs and the Unemployment Rate FAQ: How can the unemployment rate fall if the economy is losing net [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 12:02pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unemployment: Record number Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Two more graphs ...
  
  Unemployed over 26 Weeks
  
  Back in September, David Leonhardt wrote on the job churn rate in the NY Times: Try thinking of it this way: All of the unemployed people in the country are gathered in a huge gymnasium that’s been turned into [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 11:09am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Seasonal Retail Hiring, Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here are a few more graphs based on the employment report ...
  
  Seasonal Retail Hiring
  
  Retailers are hiring seasonal workers at slightly above the pace of last year ...
  
  Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 9:24am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment Report: 11K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BLS: The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Click on graph for larger image.
  
  This graph shows the unemployment rate [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment Report Forecasts

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Just a few forecasts ...
  
  From CNBC: Look Ahead: Jobs Report Has Markets on EdgeEconomists expect November's decline in non farm payrolls to come in at about 125,000, and unemployment is expected to hold steady at 10.2 percent. ... Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 12:16am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• BofA Raises $19.3 Billion

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Bloomberg: Bank of America Raises $19.3 Billion in Share Sale at $15 Each Bank of America Corp., which plans to repay $45 billion of U.S. government bailout money, raised $19.3 billion in a sale of securities at $15 apiece, a 4.8 percent discount to its common stock. This [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 8:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Chairmen Never Learn

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  In his 2001 testimony, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before the House Committee on the Budget, and while offering his usual cautions and caveats, Greenspan talked of surpluses for the foreseeable future.
  
  Greenspan spoke of "an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion ... in fiscal year 2010". [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 4:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• AmTrust Lawyers Discuss Bank Seizure

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Plain Dealer: AmTrust sale appears inevitable, according to attorneys Peter Goldberg doesn't expect to be the CEO of AmTrust Bank much longer, but his expertise will be needed to help the AmTrust and its employees once the bank is taken over by regulators and sold to another' [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 2:44pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 8.4 Percent

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From HotelNewsNow.com: Luxury leads occupancy increases in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 1.7 percent to end the week at 40.7 percent. Average daily rate dropped 6.7 percent to finish the week at US$84.81. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 8.4 percent [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 11:57am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows Contraction in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after two consecutive months of expansion, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
  
  The report was issued today [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 10:04am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bernanke Confirmation Hearing

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.
  
  Here is the CNBC feed.
  
  And a live feed from C-SPAN.
  
  Prepared Testimony: Confirmation hearing [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 10:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 457,000

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 462,000 [revised from 466,000]. The 4-week moving average was 481,250, a decrease of 14,250 from [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 8:36am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Sack: MBS Purchases Lowered Mortgage Rates by 100 bps

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WSJ Real Time Economics: The Fed’s Market’s Guy Eyes Asset Sales and Rate Increases (ht Paul) Brian Sack, who runs the markets group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke to the Money Marketeers of New York University ...
  
  Mr. Sack’s group estimates that [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 12:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Goldman Forecast: Unemployment to Peak in 2011

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  James Pethokoukis at Reuters provides excerpts from the most recent Goldman Sachs forecast and writes about the political implications, but the economic implications are also significant. From Goldman: The key features of our 2011 outlook: (1) a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 8:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• BofA to Repay $45 Billion in TARP

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Update: Press Release from BofA: Bank of America to Repay Entire $45 Billion in TARP to U.S. Taxpayers
  
  From CNBC: Bank of America Out of TARP, Says Gasparino (ht Mr. Mortgage) CNBC’s Charlie Gasparino tells the desk that Bank of America is going to repay [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 5:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• HUD's Donovan: "Next Steps" for FHA

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is Secretary Donovan's testimony (pdf). The following are the Next Steps for the FHA. Key points:
  
  Focus on enforcement and lender accountability
  Reduce the maximum seller concession from 6% to 3%.
  Raise the minimum FICO score.
  Increase the up-front cash for borrower (it [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 4:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Beige Book: Economy "improved modestly"

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Fed: Beige Book Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic conditions have generally improved modestly since the last report. Eight Districts indicated some pickup in activity or improvement in conditions, while the remaining four--Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta--reported that conditions were little changed and/or [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Holding Company files for Bankruptcy, Bank Still Operates

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  In a somewhat unusual move, a bank holding company filed for bankruptcy yesterday while the insured subsidiary (AmTrust Bank) continued to operate. Here was the news from Bloomberg: AmTrust Financial Files for Bankruptcy in Cleveland (ht Brian) AmTrust Financial Corp., owner of the Cleveland-based AmTrust Bank that expanded rapidly [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 12:31pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ABI: Pesonal Bankruptcy Filings Decline in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: The monthly data is noisy and is not adjusted for days in the month.
  
  From the American Bankruptcy Institute: November Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Drop 18 Percent from Previous Month The 112,152 consumer filings in November represented a decrease of 18 percent from the 135,913 filings registered in [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 11:06am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Lend America Closes Down After FHA Cancels Approval

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The FHA is expected to announce steps today to raise reserves, tighten standards and crack down on poor performing lenders. For Lend America (aka Ideal Mortgage Bankers), there were allegations of submitting false documents, but I expect further approval cancellations just for poor performance.
  
  From Ellen Yan at [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 9:31am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ADP: Private Employment Decreased 169,000 in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  ADP reports: Nonfarm private employment decreased 169,000 from October to November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from September to October was revised by 8,000, from a decline of 203,000 to a decline of 195,000. Note: ADP [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 8:15am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA to Ask Congress for Changes

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Diani Olick at CNBC: FHA to Toughen Mortgage Rules in Lenders Crackdown (ht Brad) ... the Federal Housing Administration is proposing new rules to crack down on lenders and asking Congress for the authority to raise certain borrower requirements ... Those steps will include raising minimum borrower FICO [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 12:44am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Leonhardt on Long Term PEs

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Economix: Stocks Start Looking Dear Again Over the last few years, I’ve come to know and trust a version of the price-earnings ratio preferred by the economists Robert Shiller and John Campbell. It is based on an average of the past 10 [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 10:04pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Impact of Stimulus on GDP

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The CBO released a new report today: Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output as of September 2009. Here is their estimate of the impact on GDP: [The] CBO estimates that in the third quarter of calendar year 2009 ... real (inflation-adjusted) [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 7:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Light Vehicle Sales 10.9 Million SAAR in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for November (red, light vehicle sales of 10.93 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 3:52pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ISM and Manufacturing Employment

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the ISM Manufacturing report on employment: ISM's Employment Index registered 50.8 percent in November, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the 53.1 percent reported in October. This is the second month of growth in manufacturing employment following 14 consecutive months of decline. An Employment Index above 49.7 [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 2:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Ford: U.S. November Sales Flat

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From MarketWatch: Ford U.S. Nov. sales flat at 123,167 units
  
  Update: CNBC is reporting Ford Motor November US Sales Rise 8.6% on an Adjusted Basis
  
  UPDATE2:
  MarketWatch: Chrysler Nov. sales down 25%
  
  MarketWatch: Toyota U.S. Nov. sales rise [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 12:02pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ISM Manufacturing Index shows Slower Expansion in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  PMI at 53.6 in November, down from 55.7% in October.
  
  From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the seventh consecutive month, [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 10:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Construction Spending Flat in October

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  We started the year looking for two key construction spending stories: a likely bottom for residential construction spending, and the collapse in private non-residential construction.
  
  It appears residential construction spending may have bottomed, although any growth in spending will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Treasury Guidance on Short Sales

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  UPDATE: Here is the document (pdf): Introduction of Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives – Short Sale and Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure
  
  From Reuters: Treasury sets guidance to simplify "short sales" (ht Anthony)
  
  Here are the basics of the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program financial incentives for completing short [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 8:39am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai's Structured Debt

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Ok, one more post on Dubai before all the U.S. economic news this week ...
  
  A couple of articles from the NY Times: Dubai Crisis Tests Laws of Islamic Financing Shariah-compliant investments prohibit lenders from earning interest, and effectively place lenders and borrowers into a form of partnership. [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 12:07am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More Dubai

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From The Times: Fear of creditor wipe-out as Dubai jettisons conglomerate Dubai World, the state-owned conglomerate, was effectively abandoned to its fate by the Emirate's Government yesterday despite previous assumptions that Dubai would stand behind the company. That has raised the likelihood that lenders to Dubai World, which has [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 8:58pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Tanta: A Sad Anniversary

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  One year ago today, my friend and co-blogger Doris “Tanta” Dungey passed away.
  
  This has been a very difficult couple of weeks for her family - Tanta's birthday was Nov 15th and she would have been 48. Cathy, Tanta's sister, asked me to pass along the gratitude of her [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 6:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CNBC on Dubai World Debt Restructuring

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From CNBC: Dubai World to Restructure About $26 Billion of Debt Dubai World said it would try to restructure about $26 billion of debt, far less than the nearly $60 billion in total liabilities that the Dubai government's investment arm had as of August.
  ...
  "Creditors need to" [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 3:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Restaurant Index Shows Contraction in October

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.
  
  Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index. The index is a year-over-year index, so the headline index might [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 1:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• US Treasury Announces "Mortgage Modification Conversion Drive"

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the U.S. Treasury: Obama Administration Kicks Off Mortgage Modification Conversion Drive The U.S. Department of the Treasury and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today kick off a nationwide campaign to help borrowers who are currently in the trial phase of their modified mortgages under the Obama [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 11:20am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Increases in November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From MarketWatch: CNov. Chicago PMI rises to 56.1%, a 15-month highThe business activity index rose to 56.1% in November from 54.2% in October. ... The employment index rose to 41.9% from 38.3% ... Readings above 50% indicate expansion, and below 50% indicate contraction, so this suggests business activity is [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 9:46am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai: Government Will Not Stand Behind Dubai World Debt

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From The Times: Investors face huge losses as Dubai abandons debt company The Government of Dubai said today that it will not stand behind its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai World, prompting fears that the company’s creditors could lose billions of dollars.
  
  Today's comment, from Abdulrahman al-Saleh, the director [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 8:39am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More Dubai and Futures

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WSJ: Worries Grow Over Gulf Rift The central bank said it "stands behind" U.A.E. banks and would make available funds to local institutions, including local subsidiaries of foreign banks.
  
  But the statement pointedly didn't mention Dubai, disappointing many market observers. And from the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Times: United Arab Emirates takes hard line on Dubai

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  For some reason The Times has been removed from news stands in Dubai ...
  
  From The Times: Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates takes hard line as Dubai counts soaring cost ... The rulers of Abu Dhabi are expected to make a statement before the markets open [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 7:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The week will start with questions about Dubai, and a Treasury announcement on Monday about a plan to put pressure on lenders to complete modifications.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph is from the most [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 3:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NRF: Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the NRF: Black Friday Verdict: As Expected, Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down ... a National Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the expected: more people spent less. According to NRF’s Black Friday shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 1:33pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai Update

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: I'll have a Black Friday retail post in a few hours ...
  
  From Bloomberg: U.A.E. Central Bank Stands Behind Lenders, Adds Funds The United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s local and foreign banks, which face losses from Dubai World’s possible default, and' [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 11:26am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Apartment Rents Fall 4.9% in SoCal

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Alejandro Lazo at the LA Times: Falling rents aid homeowners in mortgage trouble Southern California rents peaked at $1,501 in the third quarter of 2008 ... Since then, rents have fallen 4.9%, to an average of $1,427 in the third quarter of this year, according to a survey [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 9:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Abu Dhabi and Dubai: Dueling Headlines

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From The Times: Abu Dhabi rides in to rescue Dubai from debt crisis
  
  And from the Telegraph: Abu Dhabi will not race to Dubai's rescue
  
  Actually both stories are pretty much the same. From The Times article: An Abu Dhabi official said yesterday it would “pick [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Growth of Problem Banks (unofficial)

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  By request here is a graph of the number of banks on the unofficial problem bank list.
  
  We started posting the Unofficial Problem Bank list in early August (credit: surferdude808). The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 6:52pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Consensus on Permanent Mods: "Program has proved inadequate"

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  It sounds like the permanent mod numbers will be grim ...
  
  From Peter Goodman at the NY Times: U.S. to Pressure Mortgage Firms for Loan Relief The Obama administration on Monday plans to announce a campaign to pressure mortgage companies to reduce payments for many more troubled homeowners, [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 3:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Thanksgiving Weekend Mortgage Litigation Roundup

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  CR Note: This is a guest post from albrt.
  
  Thanksgiving Weekend Mortgage Litigation Roundup
  
  CR forwarded me a couple of links recently, so I told him I’d write up a summary for your holiday weekend entertainment. I’m also including a little ubernerd bonus at the end.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 11:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Your Morning Dubai

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  A collection of articles ...
  
  From The Times: Dubai debt fears threaten credit crunch 2 — and RBS is exposed
  
  From Bloomberg: India Studying Effect of Dubai’s Debt Delay Plan on Its EconomyIndia, the world’s top recipient of migrant remittances, is examining the effect Dubai’s attempt [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 8:02am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Flipper in Trouble?

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  A flipper bought this one in September for $330,000, and has reduced the asking price to $379,000. Still no takers.
  
  Jim the Realtor is watching for "flips turning to flops" and this might be one. For more - and a couple of interviews with Adam (a flipper who [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 9:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Northern Trust on Dubai

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  James Pressler at Northern Trust provides an overview of the Dubai situation: Dubai’s Latest Mega-project – A Massive Default? (pdf) A few excerpts: The complexities of the UAE’s governmental structure make the situation difficult to grasp at first glance, but the problem can be captured by a few basic [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 6:29pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases Significantly

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The FDIC finally released its enforcement actions for October today, which led to a large increase in the number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List.
  
  This [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 3:07pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Dubai

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  First, since the markets closed early ...
  
  This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
  
  Note that the Great Depression crash is based on [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WaPo: A Liar Loan Example

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Donna St. George at the WaPo: The $698,000 mistake [A]ll of this began in the heady days of the mortgage boom ... [Ms. White] only knew that there seemed to be possibilities, even to those with little means such as herself, which is how a woman who had [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 10:53am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• UBS Analysts: Dubai Debt may be more than $80 Billion

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  A little more Dubai news ...
  
  From Bloomberg: Dubai Debt May Be Higher Than $80 Billion, UBS Analysts Say Dubai... may owe more than the $80 billion to $90 billion in liabilities assumed by investors, UBS AG analysts said in a note.
  
  “Perhaps Dubai’s debt includes [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 8:33am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Europe, Asia Sell-Off on Dubai Reports

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Some Turkey Night reports and futures ...
  
  From The Times: Dubai in deep water as ripples from debt crisis spread Fears of a dangerous new phase in the economic crisis swept around the globe yesterday ... Shares plunged, weak currencies were battered and more than £14 billion was [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 9:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• $430 Billion in CRE Losses?

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: How banks may lose $430 billion more Banks are projected to lose $430 billion on commercial real estate loans in the next two to three years [said] Stan Mullin, an associate with California Real Estate Receiverships in Newport Beach
  ...
  Highlight’s of [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 5:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Music: It's Beginning to Look a Lot More Riskless

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Happy Thanksgiving! Make sure to check out the previous post on Dubai.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 2:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai Default

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  No one saw this coming ...
  
  From Bloomberg: Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers Dubai is shaking investor confidence across the Persian Gulf after its proposal to delay debt payments risked triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001.
  ...
  Moody’s Investors Service and [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgages: Few Permanent Mods

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  One of the keys to the housing market is the success of the modification programs. The Treasury Department is expected to release a key measurement next month: the number of permanent modifications for the Making Home Affordable program.
  
  Scott Reckard at the LA Times has an overview: Few [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 8:53am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fannie Mae to Tighten Some Standards

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WaPo: Fannie Mae to tighten lending standards (ht Ann, Pat, Tim) Starting Dec. 12, the automated system that Fannie Mae uses to approve loans will reject borrowers who have at least a 20 percent down payment but whose credit scores fall below 620 out of 850. Previously, [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 11:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing: A Weak Start to November

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  A short excerpt from the WSJ Developments: Think Twice About Cheering New Home Sales Already, builders report weak November traffic. One private builder in Raleigh, N.C. - long considered a strong market because of tech and higher-education employers - reports no shoppers in the first week, according to John [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:14pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jim the Realtor Interviews a Real Estate Flipper

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Jim shows a property and interviews the investor. The investor recently bought the property for $590,000 on the court house steps, and sold it fairly quickly for $685,000.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 7:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bankruptcy Filings Increase 34 Percent

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Up 34 Percent over Last Fiscal Year Bankruptcy cases filed in federal courts for fiscal year 2009 totaled 1,402,816, up 34.5 percent over the 1,042,993 filings reported for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2008, according to statistics released today by the Administrative [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 5:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is more on the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales.
  
  The following graph shows the ratio of existing home sales divided by new home sales through October.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 3:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Rates Fall Slightly

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  I skipped the MBA market index earlier ...
  
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...
  
  The Refinance Index decreased [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 12:38pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• New Home Sales in October

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 430 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 405 thousand in September (revised from 402 thousand).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• October PCE and Saving Rate

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2009 Personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $68.3 billion, or 0.7 percent.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:48am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 466,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 501,000 [revised from 505,000]. The 4-week moving average was 496,500, a decrease of 16,500 from [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ATA Truck Tonnage Index Declines in October

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Dipped 0.2 Percent in October
  
  Click on graph for slightly larger image in new window.
  
  The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.2 percent in October, [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:37pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  So much data, so little time ... just catching up. This was released earlier today:
  
  Click on map for larger image.
  
  Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Thirty seven [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 6:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Negative Equity Report for Q3

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is the Q3 negative equity report from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report: Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.
  
  Data Highlights
  Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 4:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FOMC Minutes: "Unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time"

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  The FOMC now sees economic risks balanced, as opposed to tilted towards the downside (I think this is too optimistic). And they also expect unemployment to remain elevated for some time.
  
  Here are the November FOMC minutes. Committee Policy Action: [M]ost members projected that over the next [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here are three key measures of house prices: Price-to-Rent, Price-to-Income and real prices based on the Case-Shiller quarterly national home price index.
  
  Price-to-Rent
  
  In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Q3 Banking Profile: 552 Problem Banks

  —Calculated Risk

  The FDIC released the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile today. The FDIC listed 552 banks with $345.9 billion in assets as “problem” banks in Q3, up from 416 banks with $299.8 billion in assets in Q2, and 252 and $159.4 billion in assets in Q4 2008.
  
  Note: Not [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case Shiller Home Price Graphs

  —Calculated Risk

  S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for September this morning.
  
  This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). NOTE: This is the Not Seasonally Adjusted data - the link is broken for the SA data.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:56am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case-Shiller House Prices Increase in September

  —Calculated Risk

  Note: I will have graphs as soon as S&P releases the data online.
  
  S&P reports the Composite 10 index increased 0.3% in September, and the Composite 20 index increased 0.3% (both SA). Eleven cities posted increases, nine showed price declines.
  
  From S&P: “We have seen broad improvement in [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:12am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Q3 GDP Revised Down to 2.8%

  —Calculated Risk

  From the BEA: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgages: 23% of Borrowers have Negative Equity

  —Calculated Risk

  From the WSJ: 1 in 4 Borrowers Under Water The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23% ...
  
  Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages that are [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:43am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Forecasts: Unhappy Holidays for Restaurants and Hotels

  —Calculated Risk

  Update on the Chicago Fed Index post: According to the Chicago Fed, the "CFNAI-MA3 moves significantly into positive territory a few months after the official NBER date of the trough". Earlier I was excerpting from the entering recession section. This suggests - using this index - it is [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:23pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Fed asks Big Banks for TARP Repayment Plans

  —Calculated Risk

  From Bloomberg: Fed Said to Ask Banks to Submit Plans to Repay TARP (ht MrM) The central bank this month asked Bank of America Corp. and eight other banks to [submit repayment plans with a timetable]. ... Together the nine banks have received about $142 billion in TARP funds [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody’s: Credit Card Delinquencies Rise

  —Calculated Risk

  From Bloomberg: Late Card Payments Rose in October, Moody’s Reports Loans at least 30 days overdue, a signal of future defaults, rose to 6.12 percent in October from 5.97 percent in September, Moody’s said ... defaults fell last month to 10.04 percent from 10.72 percent in September, reflecting lower [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 5:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales: Distressing Gap

  —Calculated Risk

  After the expected spike in existing home sales last month, I quoted legendary basketball coach John Wooden:"Never mistake activity for achievement." It is worth repeating this month.
  
  First, it is important to remember that existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. What matters for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 1:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales Graphs

  —Calculated Risk

  Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):
  
  This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. For the fifth consecutive month, sales were higher in 2009 than in 2008.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales increase sharply in October

  —Calculated Risk

  The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Chicago Fed Index: "Economic activity leveled off in October"

  —Calculated Risk

  From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity leveled off in October The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –1.08 in October, down very slightly from –1.01 in September.
  ...
  The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.91 in October from –0.67 in September, declining for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WWII Slogan Makes a Comeback

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier posts ...
  Summary and a Look Ahead (A busy week for housing data!)
  
  Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases
  
  Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages
  
  
  From the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:36pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WSJ Real Time Economics: Fed’s Bullard: Asset Buying Efforts Should Remain Active (ht (Bob_in_MA) “I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 7:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Kenneth Harney at the SF Chronicle lists a few possible changes: FHA looking for ways to pump up its reserves. Harney lists four possible changes:
  
  Higher down payments. The current downpayment requirement is 3.5%, and Harney mentions proposals for an increase to 5% or more. This will [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 4:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  This will be a busy week for housing news starting with October existing home sales on Monday, Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday.
  
  Existing home sales will probably be very high - close to a 5.8 million SAAR - because of the rush of [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CRE Owners Seeking Property Tax Relief

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: S.F. commercial properties seek tax relief Landmark skyscrapers, signature hotels and upscale retailers glitter in the San Francisco skyline and enhance its cachet. But with commercial real estate slumping, they soon may subtract badly needed cash from the city's coffers.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 9:34am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Strategic Defaults

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  From Lew Sichelman at the LA Times: Owners' willingness to 'strategically default' on loans depends largely on how far underwater they are (ht Ann)
  
  Most of the LA Times article is based on the paper by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales that I covered in June: Moral' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:22pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jon Stewart on Silver Dome, Goldman Sachs and more

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a link if the embed doesn't work.
  
  ' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 7:40pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Fed and Mortgage Rates

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Meredith Whitney expressed concern about what will happen when the Fed stops buying GSE MBS by the end of the first quarter 2010. From Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued The Federal Reserve has begun slowing purchases in the $5 trillion market for so-called agency [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 3:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Bank Failure Update

  —Calculated Risk

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: The FDIC will probably release the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile next week. The report will show the number of banks on the problem bank list, and the status of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF).
  
  The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk