December 11, 2009
By John Mauldin
We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out [...]
Long time Outside of the Box readers are familiar with John Hussman of the eponymous Hussman Funds. And once again he is my selection for this week’s OTB.
This week he touches on several topics, all of which I find interesting. As he notes:
“We face two possible states of the world. [...]
November 28, 2009
By John Mauldin
Subprime Dubai
I admit that of late my writings have had a rather dark tone. There are certainly a number of [...]
November 20, 2009
By John Mauldin
From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!
–Old Scottish Prayer
Where the Wild [...]
Today’s Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week’s Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below [...]
My long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must [...]
November 30, 2009
By John Mauldin
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I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of [...]
The Best of Times
October 23, 2009
By John Mauldin
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What’s a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization [...]
Today I offer you an insightful look at China’s real estate market – a “burgeoning bubble” that deserves a close eye as the possibility for breaking increases. Remember the chaos in Japan after their own housing dreamscape got violently yanked back to earth? As investors, we have to recognize opportunities [...]
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This [...]
October 2, 2009
By John Mauldin
“To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover [...]
The Hole in FDIC
September 18, 2009
By John Mauldin
This [...]
One of my favorite sources of information is The Liscio Report by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood. Among other things, each month they survey all the states about tax revenues, expenses and then give us the results in a very pithy fashion. No one pays taxes unless they have to, [...]
As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and
oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that
starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far
from being simple, the “equation” for [...]
August 28, 2009
By John Mauldin
We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which now leave us with [...]
The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according to Shiller, is one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought. EMH should be consigned to the dustbin of history. We need to stop teaching it, and brainwashing the innocent. Rob Arnott tells a lovely story of a speech he was [...]
This week I am in the office for just one day, but I can rely on my friend Dave Rosenberg to give us solid insight on the latest GDP numbers for this week’s Outside the Box. Dave slices and dices to show us what really happened. David was the former [...]
The question we have been focused on for some time now is whether we end up with inflation, or deflation, and what that endgame looks like. It is one of the most important questions an investor must ask today, and getting the answer right is critical. This week, we have [...]
A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we [...]
We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly [...]
Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion? July 10, 2009
By John Mauldin
There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But [...]
This week’s Outside the box looks at some very interesting research done by two economic historians, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O’Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin They give us comparisons between the Great Depression and today’s downturn. They continue to update their data from [...]
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are “This Time It’s Different.” If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn’t different. It almost never [...]
Before we get into this week’s Outside the Box, let me give you a few pieces of data that came across my desk this morning, which will help set the stage for the OTB offering.
Fitch (the ratings agency), in a downgrade of yet another 543 mortgage-backed securities of 2005-07 vintage, [...]
We are coming to a critical inflection point, perhaps the most critical point that we have had in 70 years for the US and to a great extent the global economy. The choices we make (or that Congress and the Fed make for us) will affect not just our investment [...]
Things That Go Bump in the Night A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See The Global Recession Gets Worse Where Will the Money Come From? The Paradox of Deficits Naples, London, and Eastern Europe
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From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that [...]
Faith-Based Economics
May 15, 2009
By John Mauldin
Go to Google. Type in “green shoots.” In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can [...]
Sell in May and Go Away
May 1, 2009
By John Mauldin
The old adage that one should “sell in May and walk away” has been around for [...]
Two weeks ago I presented my thoughts on the current economic situation at my 6th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla (co-hosted with Altegris Investments). The speech was well-received, at least to judge from the comment forms. So this week and next, we are going to revisit that talk [...]
Is That Recovery We See?
April 10, 2009
By John Mauldin
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The market, we keep [...]
Deep Inside the Dow April 3, 2009
By John Mauldin
Tonight (Saturday) some 450 people will come together in San Diego to honor Richard
Russell, who has been writing the Dow Theory Letter for over 50 years. In that spirit, in today’s letter we are going to look deep inside the [...]
Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds.
Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed
returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining
whether or not investors have gotten better returns [...]
This last Tuesday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by my friend Gary Shilling and Richard LeFrak. They offer a simple solution for the housing crisis: give foreigners who will come to the US and buy a home resident status (green cards). This is a very important proposal and [...]
This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It’s time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I [...]
The Law of Unintended Consequences
March 6, 2009
By John Mauldin
Unintended Consequences
The I-Factor
Rating Agencies Gone Wild
Knights to the Rescue
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Rules have consequences. And sometimes they have unintended consequences. If I told you that the US government was going to give multiple tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to [...]
Buy and Hope Investing
February 27, 2009
By John Mauldin
More About the Long Run
Stocks for the REALLY Long Run
If You Don’t Like the Numbers, Then Change Them
Buy and Hope
A Few Thoughts on Taxes and Budgets
Nouriel Roubini, Yahoo Tech Ticker, and Me
New York, Las Vegas, and [...]
When I sit down each week to write, I essentially do what I did nine years ago when I started writing this letter. I write to you, as an individual. I don’t think of a large group of people, just a simple letter to a friend. It is only half [...]
One of the best gauges of an economy is tax collections. No one pays taxes unless they have to, so collections are a real-world, real-time analysis of the US economy. And the best source I know of for tracking taxes is The Liscio Report, by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood.
Tax [...]
February 6, 2009
By John Mauldin
When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are [...]
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for [...]
Trading With the Big Boys
January 30, 2009
By John Mauldin
This week we are going to do something a little different. I am in Bermuda taking a little weekend R&R after a speech, as well as working on my book. There is not the time for the usual letter [...]
The Endgame by John Mauldin
January 17, 2009
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? [...]
I meant to take yet another Friday away from my writing, but as I am researching for next week’s annual prediction issue, there is so much material that begs to be covered that I thought I would put out a short letter with 3 or 4 points as a preface [...]
This week I have a special Outside the Box for you. My long-time friend Doug Casey wrote a very prescient piece back in 1997. He has updated it somewhat for today’s times. The critical part is a summary of the work of Richard Strauss and (friend) John Howe and their [...]
I Meant to Do That
December 19, 2008
By John Mauldin
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for [...]
The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering
“It will therefore be crucial that you see the world anew. That means looking from the outside in to reanalyze much that you have probably taken for granted. This will enable you to come to an understanding. If you fail to transcend conventional [...]
Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word
November 21, 2008
By John Mauldin
Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into [...]
The Economy Gets a Margin Call
November 15, 2008
By John Mauldin
The Economy Gets a Margin Call
Where Have All the Consumers Gone?
Why Is the Dollar Rising?
Can We Actually Muddle Through?
The Potential for a Large Stock Market Rally
Is GM too Big to Let Fail?
New [...]
