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Best idea I've heard in a while... » Create Your Own "Extended Warranty Fund"Create an "extended warranty fund" Instead of buying warranty after warranty, why not create an "extended warranty fund." In other words, whenever a retailer offers you' [...]
I've been trying to track this article down for months... must read for those interested in setting the record straight.
Persistence of Myths Could Alter Public Policy Approach - washingtonpost.com ' [...]A new Gallup Poll finds 48% of Americans saying the amount of federal income taxes they pay is "about right," with 46% saying "too high" -- one of the most positive assessments Gallup has measured since 1956. Typically, a majority of [...]
We're hiring a labor economist at EPI... see link for details on how to apply...
Employment opportunities at EPILiving Standards/Labor Economist
The Economic Policy Institute is looking for an experienced economist for our flagship Living Standards program. In that position, the successful candidate would work with the Living Standards team to [...]
Romer/Bernstein estimate job impact to be between 3 and 4 million... see The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.
[...]Just posted at EPI...
A rescue plan for Main StreetA package that provides funding for infrastructure, aid to states, and other provisions would begin to reverse our economic course by creating jobs while meeting national priorities. The package should also include a down-payment on longer-term reforms, as well. This memo [...]
The GAO is out with its first report on the Treasury's TARP/CPP program. Implementing the transparency and accountability requirements should be a high priority for the new administration.
(Also, be sure to check out the nifty TED spread chart on page 50, and the bond-treasury spread on 51. And, if you [...]
Irons/Bivens - May 1, 2008:
While it will be many months before an "official" recession is declared, evidence shows that the economic expansion that began in 2001 has almost surely ended.1 Furthermore, if these trends continue, the start of a new recession will likely be dated either at the end [...]
Things have been crazy at the day job with the economy melting down and the election. Any hopes for a post election letdown are slipping away. Here's my public event schedule for the next few weeks...
Now on to the hard work of fixing the economy...
[...]Obama gets endorsements from two <sarcasm>socialist</sarcasm> publications: The Economist and Financial Times
An endorsement of Barack Obama | It's time | The Economist
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Editorial comment - Obama is the better choice
[...]It's been a busy couple of weeks. Below is some of what I've done...
Quoted on stimulus in CQ below. Also, stay tuned - I'm scheduled to testify before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee next week.
CQ Politics | A Concrete Stimulus Plan: Infrastructure and RecoveryThe research and policy director at the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute, John Irons, says that if the [...]
The Prize in Economics 2008 - Press ReleaseThe Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2008 to Paul Krugman Princeton University, NJ, USA
"for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity"
International Trade and Economic Geography
[...]
I think we all know now to read the fine print when it comes to mortgages....
Gene and Jared note the fine print of the McCain bailout.
Jared Bernstein and Gene Sperling: Ouch! McCain's Housing Solution Is a Gift from Taxpayers to BanksBut today we learned of a detail that makes [...]
What did I say?
Finance et Investissement : Le plan Paulson toujours entre les mains du CongrèsLe plan Paulson toujours entre les mains du Congrès
Le temps presse...
23 septembre 2008
Par Léonie Laflamme Savoie
Publicité
Â
« Un plan de sauvetage ne doit pas être simplement un cadeau pour des compagnies qui [...]
Up today at EPI with two colleagues.
I think there are better options out there for a bailout, but the failure today is not something to celebrate. A better package would include more liquidity infusion in exchange for equity in bailed-out firms; but options are limited given the political [...]
New survey of economists...
Economists Favor Obama -- Political Wire[...]Economists Favor Obama A new poll of economists finds Sen. Barack Obama is overwhelmingly preferred over Sen. John McCain by a 66% to 28% margin.
The survey consisted of 523 economists who are both U.S. citizens and members of the American Economic Association.
Exactly which of these fundamentals are "strong"?
ChartJunk does a better chart of Obama vs. McCain tax policy. Be sure to click through for the chart.
chartjunk » Blog Archive » Tax Plans (that's one for you, nineteen for me).Tax Plans (that's one for you, nineteen for me). There's a graph that Obama supporters are sending around, [...]
Still on paternity leave, but I may be making some opening remarks at the event below...
Corporate and High Income Tax Cuts and The EconomyThe Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies
September 12, 2008, 12:00pm - 2:30pm
About This Event
Since the late 1970s and building through the era of [...]
Long article on Obama and economics coming this weekend. Haven't read it yet, but noted this quote which I think sums up much of Obama's approach.
Magazine Preview - Barack Obama, A Free-Market-Loving, Big-Spending, Fiscally Conservative Wealth Redistributionist - NYTimes.com"My core economic theory is pragmatism," [Obama] said, "figuring out what [...]
One for the clips file from LA Times...
McCain and Obama tax plans diverge on wealth - Los Angeles TimesMcCain and Obama tax plans diverge on wealth True to party doctrine, the GOP candidate's economic proposals would ease the burden on the rich, while the Democratic candidate's would increase it. By Stephen [...]
Phil Gramm - who called Americans a bunch of whiners about the economy - seems to be back in favor at the McCain camp.
Op-Ed Columnist - It's the Economy Stupor - Op-Ed - NYTimes.comMeanwhile, The Times reports that, according to associates, Mr. McCain still "dials up" Phil Gramm, the [...]
New research by Broda/Parker suggests the answer is "yes". The rebate checks seem to have increased consumption.
Did the 2008 US tax rebates work? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economistsThis spring, the US government handed out $100 billion in tax rebates. Twentieth century economic [...]
In the wake of McCain's latest misleading ad, MSNBC echoes the Tax Policy Center's analysis:
Who'd give more to the middle class? - First Read - msnbc.comFrom NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain claims in an ad released today that "Obama voted to raise taxes on people making just $42,000. He promises [...]
Looks like I have some night-time reading with Bush's final budget document. Here's Stan Collender:
Bush Midsession Budget: Absolute Silliness | Capital Gains and GamesThere is also absolutely no indication that the White House understands in any way that this year's deficit is not just the result of things [...]
Obama has been pushing hard on energy policy recently. His comprehensive approach combines a broad-based approach to carbon reductions (through cap-and-trade) with a variety of targeted incentives to move us to a more efficient economy fueled by renewable energy. The plan also comes with rebates to help consumers get by. [...]
My EPI colleagues have analyzed the Tax Policy Center's analysis of the Obama and McCain's health are plans. Main points below...
Obama health plan outperforms McCain plan in coverage and efficiency
- Efficiency. Over the 10-year period analyzed by the TPC, Senator Obama's plan provides far greater "bang-for-the-buck," spending far less per [...]
GDP posts a modest gain - but still not strong enough to tighten the labor market. Also look at the revision in Q4 from last year.
GDP Picture, July 31, 2008Even with boost from stimulus, economy just limps along
by EPI economist L. Josh Bivens
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew [...]
Following on the heals of my previous post:
The Candidates' Tax Plans: Fuzzy Math - TIMEHere is Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's chief economic policy adviser. "I used to say that Barack Obama raises taxes and John McCain cuts them, and I was convinced," he told me in a phone interview this [...]
More fallout from the McCain tax policy bait and switch...
Wonk Room » Holtz-Eakin On $2.8 Trillion Gap: Just Because McCain 'Said Things In Town Halls...Doesn't Mean It's Official'McCain adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin responded yesterday to a recent report by the Tax Policy Center, which found a $2.8 trillion gap [...]
The Tax Policy Center has released an updated analysis of the two campaign's tax plans.
The outcomes are similar to the first iteration (see below) - with Obama's tax plan reducing taxes for middle-income (quintile) taxpayers by about $1,000, which is 3 times as large as McCain's reductions for that [...]
Neat-o. (Though a couple months old.)
From the NYTimes, an interactive graphic: "Each shape below represents how much the average American spends in different categories. Larger shapes make up a larger part of spending." Click on the image for full functionality.
CBO director Peter Orszag weighs in on the allocation of carbon permits under a cap-and-trade regime. Orszag argues the standard economics of the program --- that only with an auction can the revenue be recycled, through lower taxes or rebates. Without the auction, polluters would be able to raise prices, [...]
Avi-Yonah sums up the problems with McCain's expensing proposal...
Wonk Room » McCain's Expensing Idea Revisited: Still A Massive Tax ShelterMcCain's Expensing Idea Revisited: Still A Massive Tax Shelter»
Our guest blogger is Reuven S. Avi-Yonah, the Irwin I. Cohn Professor of Law at University of Michigan Law School.
For a while, [...]
With Obama out of the country, there's not been much econ discussion recently. But here is McCain blaming Obama for higher gas prices.
Seems like a wee-bit of a stretch to me. Obama's campaign response points out that McCain has been the one in Washington for over [...]
Congress is looking to put together a second economic stimulus package (see below). This one may include funding for national infrastructure including roads, bridges and schools.
An often-heard criticism of this approach is that spending on infrastructure can come too slowly to have an impact.
One counter example to [...]
"One is a glass half full kind of guy and the other is an expert on the economy."
Without comment:
McCain's chief economic advisor: "the Main Street guys are hanging in there. The Wall Street guys are in a world of hurt."
Candidates starkly divided on economy - Jeanne Cummings and Eamon Javers - Politico.comIn the Obama camp, the worry is that middle-class families, who were already [...]
Difference of opinion on a second stimulus: Obama has suggested additional infrastructure investments (in roads, bridges, etc) could make rebuild our aging structures while providing stimulus. McCain disagrees.
I agree with Zandi below that combining stimulus with infrastructure can meet both long-term challenges while stimulating the economy in the short run.
[...]
Stan Collender on McCain's balanced budget pledge:
Please Don't Promise To Balance The Budget | Capital Gains and GamesThe candidate's pledge to balance the budget by 2013 repeats the Snow mistake by again refusing to acknowledge that budget policy should fit the economy. Reducing or eliminating the deficit should never [...]
In a recent AARP event, McCain Advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin says a balanced budget is about saying "no" and good governance; not about "economic reality."
Well, if it's not about "economic reality" why not say "yes" to investments in, for example, energy independence, national infrastructure, and education?
Campaign 2008 and [...]
First, a McCain adviser calls us whiners about a "mental recession," now this...
Bush: Troubled financial system is basically soundWASHINGTON --
[Bush also called on the Democratic-run Congress to follow his example and lift a ban on offshore drilling to help increase domestic oil production.
"I readily concede it won't produce [...]
From Forbes magazine, this distributional chart shows the impact of the candidates tax plans (using data from the Tax Policy Center's analysis.)
[...] As I was saying, the McCain plan is not so much a plan as a rhetorical fog. I can understand setting a deficit reduction goal, but a "plan" should articulate how you get there under reasonable assumptions. Here's the Post editorial.
McCain Math - washingtonpost.comSEN. JOHN McCain says that President [...]
Two big housing-related stories out of the Fed today.
Here's the link to the economists statement opposing the Gas Tax Holiday. Bottom line is that it wouldn't lower prices.
Opposing the Gas Tax HolidayOPEN LETTER FROM ECONOMISTS OPPOSING THE GAS TAX HOLIDAY 321 SIGNERS AND COUNTING
An Open Statement Opposing Proposals for a Gas Tax Holiday
In recent weeks, there have [...]
For those that know me, no surprise here:
I support Obamanomics |
 |
Feel free to use the image above...
(Note: the McCain ads you may see at the top of the page are being dropped in [...]
Obama and McCain have recently laid out their economic plans; and, I suspect, they will be revisiting the issues of jobs, energy, etc., throughout the election season. There is a stark contrast between the two candidates' approaches across the board.
I would urge people to read through each of [...]
The phrase "out-of-touch" comes to mind...
Washington Times - McCain adviser talks of 'mental recession'"You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," he [Phil Gramm] said, noting that growth has held up at about 1 percent despite all the publicity over losing jobs to India, China, [...]
The McCain website is claiming that over 300 economists have endorsed his economic plan. Politico tracked down many of those supposed endorsers and find that this is not true (see excerpt below.) Apparently the letter was circulating months before McCain released his actual plan - so [...]
Lost 62k jobs last month. Manufacturing continues the drop despite the weak dollar... manufacturing has lost 353,000 jobs since this time last year.
Employment Situation SummaryNonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the [...]
From The New Republic...
TRB: The IllusionistMcCain is promising to cut taxes by $300 billion per year on top of the Bush tax cuts, which he would make permanent. In addition to this, he promises to balance the budget in his first term. When asked how he could possibly pull [...]
Bush's claim that his tax cuts for high-income individuals are good for small business again fails to hold up under scrutiny. (For more on small businesses and taxes, see "Reforming the Tax Code to Assist Small Businesses" (pdf))
Bush: 43M families hurt if tax cuts expire - Jun. 2, [...]
I was on a panel yesterday talking climate change, specifically my cap-and-lease proposal. My segment begins at 1:23:50
C-SPAN | Capitol Hill, The White House and National Politics - C-SPANCenter for American Progress Discussion on the New Progressive Agenda With the inauguration of a new [...]
The New York Review of Books looks to try and pigeonhole Obama as a "behavioralist".. That's too simple. Behavioral economics has many useful insights, but it's still too early and too incomplete to be a cohesive theory of everything economics.
Economics: Which Way for Obama? - The New [...]
Via Wonkette...
Gas Tax Holiday: Hillary Places Economists Beneath Large Transportation UnitFrom this morning's ABC "town hall" with Hillary Clinton, about the gas tax holiday:
STEPHANOPOULOS: "But can you name an economist who thinks this makes sense?"
CLINTON: "Well, I'll tell you what, I'm not going to put my lot in [...]
Want to work with me? See below. Feel free to forward to anyone you think might be interested...
Employment opportunities at EPIPolicy Analyst
The Economic Policy Institute is seeking to hire an economic policy analyst to work on a variety of high-profile, policy-related projects, with a focus on federal fiscal policy.
The [...]
Here's a preview of the link to a new paper due out today...
A Feeble Recovery: The fundamental economic weaknesses of the 2001-07 expansionEvidence is mounting that the U.S. economy is in a recession. If this is the case, a complete business cycle from 2001 through the end of [...]
I agree with Len Burman on this one - the gain from a gas tax holiday would likely go to refining companies, not consumers.
(Econ 101 students: be sure to prep yourselves for final exam questions analyzing the impact of the tax holiday; if I were still teaching, I'd [...]
Was on CNN today talking about what you should do with your stimulus check... some thoughts...
DO! Go out to dinner.
And make it a restaurant that serves locally-grown food. Your rebate will boost the need for waiters, cooks, and other employees. Your money will then be recycled directly back [...]
Come see me in real life...
EPI's Agenda for Shared ProsperityInvesting in U.S. Infrastructure April 29, 2008 9:30 AM - 12:00 PM
An Agenda for Shared Prosperity forum
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
9:30 AM-NoonEPI, 1333 H Street, NW; East Tower, Suite 300, Washington, DC
[See below to RSVP]
In a time of economic weakness, public investments [...]
A minor redesign is in the works. The banner ads posed a problem with the old layout...
[...]
Snapshot on the share of taxes from various sources...
Corporate tax declines and U.S. inequalityOver the last 60 years, the U.S. tax code has dramatically shifted away from corporate taxes and toward taxes on individuals, especially through the payroll tax, the financing backbone of Social Security and Medicare. In [...]
From a couple years ago...
The Check Is in the MailOK, I admit it. I like doing my taxes. This annual ritual gives me the chance to sit down and reflect on the financial year that just passed and to think about my family's financial future. Tax time reminds me [...]
I've said this before... the use of private debt collectors is a bad idea...
Collectors Cost IRS More Than They Raise - washingtonpost.comThe Internal Revenue Service expects to lose more than $37 million by using private debt collectors to pursue tax scofflaws through a program that has outraged [...]
Regular readers will notice new banners top and right. They should soon be populated with something more than Ad Council filler...
Forbes.com to Launch Business and Finance Blog Network - Forbes.comForbes.com to Launch Business and Finance Blog Network 03.24.08, 9:37 AM ET Today Forbes.com, home page for the world's business leaders, announced [...]
I don't think the unease cited in the Pew report is just because of the recession. The latest recovery (since 2001) seems to be one of the worst, and maybe the worst, of the post WWII era.
Middle class grow fearful about their prospects - Stocks & [...]
For the press clips file...
Obama Casts Wide Blame for Financial Crisis and Proposes Homeowner Aid - New York TimesBoth warned of a national credit crisis and advanced proposals to amend bankruptcy laws to aid those facing housing foreclosure. Each endorsed Democratic legislation -- sponsored by Senator Christopher J. [...]
Cap and Lease Carbonby John Irons
Global warming is fast becoming a reality. Unless significant action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect irreversible environmental and economic damage. While there is little serious debate on the need to reduce emissions-especially of carbon dioxide-there is a substantial debate [...]
In a preview of what will likely be a hot issue in the general election, the 3 remaining presidential candidates took a stance on Bush's tax changes during the budget debate yesterday.
Both Democrats and McCain supported extending reductions for low-income taxpayers, families with kids, and married couples. Only [...]
Yesterday the House and Senate passed nearly identical versions of a budget blueprint for next year. The congressional budgets are largely status quo--spending and revenues are similar to this year's levels, and include slight increases to domestic spending relative to Bush's proposal.
Over time, however, the budgets assume a [...]
My colleague Jared points out the recent drop in real hourly and weekly wages.
Real wage reversal persistsby Jared Bernstein
Data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that a combination of slower wage growth and faster inflation has led to falling real hourly [...]
DeLong has moved towards stimulus (see below).
To be most effective, however, the Senate still needs to add on 1) unemployment insurance, 2) aid to states, and 3) direct job creation via school and bridge repair.
UI may be added today. State aid is not part of the mix, but I suspect [...]
Spending
Bush's final budget will be released tomorrow - here's the link once it goes live. I don't think anyone is expecting this to be anything but DOA on capital hill.
The bottom line will probably show growing deficits in next year or two, and then some improvement thereafter. However, [...]
I've been out sick with a nasty cold this past week. I hope to return to posting soon.
In the meantime:
Opus Comics, by Bloom County's Berkeley Breathed - Salon[...]Payback for pollsters and the rabid, slobbering media
Marketplace: Huge deficit seen. Does it matter now?
The Congressional Budget Office has announced the deficit for fiscal 2008 is going to hit almost $220 billion -- not counting war spending or an economic stimulus package. But analysts say there are bigger things to worry about. Danielle Karson reports.
Science and the 2009 BudgetFederal Budgets Matter Tremendously for Science
President Bush's last budget is unlikely to expand dedicated and critical federal spending on science. It's a problem that must be overcome.
By John Irons | Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 | Share This | Print Print
In early February, the president [...]
Been busy with the day job - lot's to do thinking about economic stimulus. The link below contains a stimulus proposal, congressional testimony, blog posts from colleagues, etc. I will try to post some media appearances as time allows...
EPI Recession Watch | EPIStrategy for an economic rebound Because the [...]
More evidence of a general slowdown from the CBO...
FT.com / World / US & Canada - US public finances feel the pinchUS public finances feel the pinch
The economic downturn in the US is starting to hit government revenues, the head of the Congressional Budget Office has told the Financial [...]
Here's the monthly employment growth as well as the unemployment rate since 2000. Seems to be a clear labor market slowdown...
[...] It's always interesting to see myself translated, and what the result looks like when Babel Fished back. I sound very militant below...
Le pétrole cher frappe une économie américaine déjà fragilisée - Yahoo! ActualitésLa pilule sera-t-elle aussi facile à avaler cette fois? Certains en doutent.
"Beaucoup de gens ont été surpris [...]
I recently wrote about Huckabee's fair tax gambit and wondered why he was getting away with proposing a tax increase on the middle class.
Brad DeLong runs with the idea, and with one thrust of his mighty sword, skewers Huckabee, the FairTax, and the Media's reporting on economic issues.
[...]
Yuck.
Oil pushes to $100NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices kicked off the first trading day of 2008 by hitting a new high of $100 a barrel Wednesday on violence in oil-rich Nigeria, the prospect of more interest rate cuts, a halt in Mexican imports and the expectation of yet [...]
Larry Summers argues for a targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus. But is $50 to $75 billion, or 0.36% to 0.54% of GDP big enough?
The State of the U.S. Economy (application/pdf Object)Any actual fiscal stimulus program would have to be worked out in the context of events as they unfold [...]
Jon Henke thinks my description of the economic right is "obstructively cynical."
He's probably correct. Perhaps I've spent too much time debating Heritage Foundation economists.
http://www.qando.net/ - Left VS Right: the economic perspectiveJohn Irons at ArgMax offers a competing list of his own characterizations of the Right. They are, [...]
Since Huckabee's rise in the polls, I'm getting more and more press calls about the so-called "Fair Tax." The bottom line is that the FairTax -- a flat sales tax that would replace all other federal taxes including income, corportate, estate, etc -- really has no chance of going anywhere; [...]
I think Mankiw gets it wrong here. I think Mankiw's definition of the "right" economists is too idealistic (at least by inside-the-beltway standards.) His description of the "right" is really center, or even center-left. My characterization of the right is below.
Greg Mankiw's Blog: How do the right and left [...]
This can't be good for consumption during the holiday season...
CNN.com - CNN Political Ticker Economy outpaces war on list of voters' worries «More than half the American public -- 57 percent -- now believe the nation is in a recession, compared to 42 percent who do not, according [...]
Rant of the day...
I know people who are literally throwing out all of their kids' toys. Salvation army is bringing thousands of volunteers to check their toys, or even removing them from their shelves all together. I've had to take a Baby Einstein block away from my 9-month old [...]
ArgMax is #1! Ok, so they're in alphabetical order... but still...
Top 10 Economics Blogs You're Not Visiting (But Should Be)1. ArgMax Dec 3 Schiff Ranking: 69.
The Economics at About.com has had only two guides in its 10+ year history. I am the second, John Irons, who runs ArgMax, was the [...]
The mortgage deal coordinated by the White House initially seemed to be to be a good idea. Freezing rates for several years might strike a balance which would be cheaper to home lenders and borrowers, and also reduce the potential spillover to the macroeconomy.
However, as details emerge on the [...]
