David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

• Manufacturing expands more slowly, house prices up

  The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing fell back from 53.4 in October to 51.8 in November, indicating that the sector is expanding (the index is above 50) but at a slower rate. Though the markets expected better, some payback was...' [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 5:30am EST
  by David Smith

• Mortgage approvals up, consumer credit down

  Bank of England data showed a modest rise in monthly mortgage approvals, from 56,205 in September to 57,345 in October. The eye-catching figure, however, was a £0.6 billion fall in consumer credit. It means another fall in the total owed... [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 5:15am EST
  by David Smith

• Don't expect too much blood from Darling's axe

  Normally at this time of year I would be reflecting on the chancellorÂ’s pre-budget report rather than looking forward to it. But the PBR is late - not until December 9 - so there are two Sundays to go.... [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 4:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Strange things are still happening in the GDP data

  Revised GDP figures for the third quarter showed the economy declined by 0.3%, against the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, but remained in recession. As I commented at the time of the original estimate, the Office for National Statistics appeared to... [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 5:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Business investment down again

  Business investment has fallen sharply in this recession, dropping by 3% in the third quarter for a fall of 21.7% on a year earlier. The 12-month fall in manufacturing investment was 28.9%. At least the latest fall in business investment... [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 5:30am EST
  by David Smith

• The nutters can relax - for a while

  The word “nutter” and Bank of England are only occasionally used in the same sentence. It was used soon after Bank independence in 1997 when Diane Abbott, the Labour MP, accused the governor, then Eddie George, of being an... [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 4:00am EST
  by David Smith

• A windfall tax on bank bonuses?

  You'll need to log on to the FT site to read the two articles but an interesting little spat has broken out at the paper over whether the government should introduce a windfall tax on bank bonuses. His argument was...' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 5:00am EST
  by David Smith

• OECD more upbeat

  The spin the OECD put on its new forecasts was that growth would not be strong enough for a while to halt the rise in unemployment. Even so, it has significantly revised up its numbers, raising its 2010 forecast for... [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 7:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Retail sales up, borrowing still heavily in the red

  News on the demand side of the economy was relatively good, retail sales rising by 0.4% in October for a 3.4% rise on a year earlier. Sales volume in the latest three months was up by 1.1%. Clothing sales appear... [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 5:15am EST
  by David Smith

• Adam Smith in 10 minutes

  That's what Professor Chris Berry of the University of Glasgow, Smith's alma mater, claims to be able to do. His talk can be accessed here.... [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 5:30pm EST
  by David Smith

• A mini-split on the MPC

  The minutes of the Bank of England monetary policy committee's November meeting revealed a little bit of division on quantitative easing, seven members voting for a £25 billion increase to £200 billion, one (Spencer Dale) for no change and another... [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 9:45am EST
  by David Smith

• Inflation up to 1.5% - as expected

  Consumer price inflation rose to 1.5% in October, from its low of 1.1% in September. Retail price deflation eased from 1.4% to 0.8%, while RPIX inflation was up from 1.3% to 1.9%. The base effects that were so helpful in... [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 5:15am EST
  by David Smith

• Bank says let's party like it's 1994 again

  Life is full of mysteries. This week's is how to square the Bank of England's upbeat forecast for the economy a few days ago with governor Mervyn King's relentlessly downbeat tone in presenting it. Though the Bank is enough... [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 4:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Europe is growing again

  Germany is growing well, with gross domestic product up 0.7% in the third quarter, France slightly less so, 0.3%. Italy has also returned to growth, with a 0.6% third quarter GDP rise. The upshot is that Eurozone growth in the... [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 5:30am EST
  by David Smith

• Bank moderately upbeat - good unemployment news

  Though Mervyn King sounded downbeat at the press conference and refused to rule out further asset purchases under the quantitative easing programme, the Bank's new forecasts are more upbeat and predict higher inflation, compared with three months ago. In particular,... [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 7:30am EST
  by David Smith

• Trade deficit widens

  Exports are up but so are imports, according to the latest trade figures, which show the trade deficit in goods and services widening from £2.2 billion in August to £3.5 billion in September. Exports rose by £0.7 billion on the... [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 5:30am EST
  by David Smith

• Are central banks blowing new bubbles?

  Another month, another £25 billion in quantitative easing from the Bank of England. The latest addition to the Bank's asset purchases will take the total to a nice round £200 billion. The Bank seems to be winding down this... [...]
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  Posted: November 08, 2009, 4:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Another £25 billion from the Bank

  I had suggested £30 billion, the Bank has gone for £25 billion, and what's a few billion these days? Today's announcement takes the quantitative easing target up to £200 billion and continues the strategy of gradually reducing the additional stimulus,... [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2009, 7:30am EST
  by David Smith

• Manufacturing bounces back

  Manufacturing output jumped by 1.7% between August and September as factories recovered from summer shutdowns. Overall industrial production rose by 1.6%. These were better than the Office for National Statistics had allowed for in the GDP figures but earlier data... [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2009, 4:45am EST
  by David Smith

• Service sector strong

  The service sector purchasing managers' index recorded another strong rise, up 1.6 points to 56.9, and is now above its long-term average of 56.2. This is powerful recovery evidence. Also today, the Markit report on jobs showed a rise in...' [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2009, 6:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Halifax up, construction down

  The Halifax has taken to publishing its house price index when you least expect it. Today's lunchtime release showed that prices rose by 1.2% in October, their fourth consecutive monthly rise. They are up by 2.9% since the end of... [...]
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  Posted: November 03, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Bank should prime the pump with another £30 billion

  To QE or not to QE? It is the big question for the Bank of EnglandÂ’s monetary policy committee (MPC) this week, and it is a big question for the economy. After those unexpectedly weak gross domestic product figures... [...]
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  Posted: November 01, 2009, 4:00am EST
  by David Smith

• Hold Bank Rate and persist with Quantitative Easing (QE) say IEAÂ’s Shadow MPC

  Following its latest quarterly gathering on 20th October, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by eight votes to one to leave Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters next meet on 5th November. The dissenting... [...]
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  Posted: November 01, 2009, 3:59am EST
  by David Smith

• House price rise slowing

  The most significant bit of economic news of the week was US third quarter GDP, up an annualised 3.5%. Most of the world, including I think Britain on any reasonable basis, has returned to growth. More parochially, the Nationwide reported... [...]
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  Posted: October 30, 2009, 7:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Deficit may undershoot despite GDP letdown

  Shooting the messenger is never a good idea. Even so, on Friday the Treasury must have thought about getting up a posse and heading down the M4 to the Office for National Statistics in Newport. Time and again in... [...]
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  Posted: October 25, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• More on those strange GDP numbers

  Goldman Sachs has put out a note on the GDP figures headed "Unbelievable. Literally", which points out the that the early estimates of GDP in the UK have a correlation of just 0.1 with the final data. Bizarrely, there is... [...]
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  Posted: October 23, 2009, 5:00pm EDT
  by David Smith

• GDP down 0.4% in Q3 - the ONS does it again

  The debate was over whether the third quarter gross domestic product numbers would be flat or show a small increase. In the event, the Office for National Statistics came out with another bizarre figure, a decline of 0.4%. True, August... [...]
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  Posted: October 23, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Retail sales flat

  Retail sales in September were weaker than the surveys had suggested. They were flat, as in August, though for the third quarter as a whole there was a 0.9% rise in volumes. Interestingly, non-food sales, including housing market sensitive household... [...]
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  Posted: October 22, 2009, 6:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• King on the banks

  The minutes of the Bank of England monetary policy committee's October meeting were mildly upbeat in tone but gave few clues on future policy. The next meeting, on November 5, is the key one for quantitative easing. The minutes are... [...]
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  Posted: October 21, 2009, 8:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Public borrowing marginally lower than feared

  The monthly horror show represented by Britain's public finance statistics turned out to be slightly less horrific than feared. Only slightly though. Net borrowing was £14.8 billion last month, slightly slower than the £15.5 billion consensus. The August figures were... [...]
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  Posted: October 20, 2009, 6:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Honey, I'd shrink the banks

  An interview with Adam Posen of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee After spells at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and as No 2 at WashingtonÂ’s leading economics think tank, Adam Posen might by now be... [...]
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  Posted: October 18, 2009, 10:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Job market lift should keep unemployment below 3m

  It should have been what golfers call a "gimme", in other words an easy tap-in, but the formal end of the recession has turned into a cliff-hanger. On Friday, the Office for National Statistics will publish gross domestic product... [...]
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  Posted: October 18, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Good news on unemployment

  Any rise in unemployment is unwelcome but the latest figures were encouraging, showing a smaller than expected rise in the claimant count, 20,800, and a much smaller rise in the Labour Force Survey measure, 88,000 over the latest three months,... [...]
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  Posted: October 14, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Downside surprise on inflation: 1.1%

  Inflation did not fall quite far enough for Mervyn King to have to write a public letter of explanation but the drop to 1.1% was more than the markets expected, the first time this has happened for quite some time.... [...]
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  Posted: October 13, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Tax and spending squeeze to keep Bank rate low

  So what, now the party conferences are over, do we know about how the budget deficit will be tackled? The answer is not enough, but we are slowly getting there. Who is making the running? On tax, Labour is... [...]
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  Posted: October 11, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Trade gap narrows, producer prices pick up

  The goods and services trade deficit narrowed to £2.3 billion in August, from £2.6 billion in July, while the deficit on goods came down from £6.4 billion to £6.2 billion. Mildly encouraging data, though in August itself imports rose faster... [...]
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  Posted: October 09, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• An easy one for the Bank

  And an easy one for analysts. If anybody was expecting anything other than Bank rate being maintained at 0.5% and continuing with the £175 billion quantitative easing programme, they shouldn't have been. The Bank's statement is here, though it doesn't... [...]
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  Posted: October 08, 2009, 8:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• An output shocker

  Just when the recovery story was going smoothly, along comes the Office for National Statistics to throw a huge spanner in the works. Manufacturing output slumped by 1.9% in August, it said, to the lowest point in the recession. Industrial... [...]
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  Posted: October 06, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Services lead the recovery

  The purchasing managers' index for the services sector rose from 54.1 in August to 55.3 in September, its highest for two years and beating market expectations. While the usual health warning applies about the relationship between the surveys and official...' [...]
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  Posted: October 05, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Time for Osborne to lift the Tory veil

  From Brighton to Manchester. The lower reaches of the football league, the old Division Three, to the top of the Premier League. The analogy is not perfect — the Conservatives are losing their way in Europe — but it... [...]
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  Posted: October 04, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Hold Bank rate and continue QE, says shadow MPC

  In its latest e-mail poll, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) unanimously voted to leave Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters meet on 8th October. There was a widespread view that the present schedule of... [...]
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  Posted: October 04, 2009, 4:59am EDT
  by David Smith

• House price inflation back to zero, housing equity withdrawal

  The Nationwide building society said house prices rose by 0.9% in September and are now back to September 2008 levels. The average house price is £161,816. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices are up by 7.2% on their February low... [...]
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  Posted: October 02, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Manufacturing slips but credit conditions improve

  Britain's manufacturing sector was never gong to roar back into life so news that the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing slipped from 49.7 to 49.5 should not be too concerning. Exports at least appear to be benefiting from the weak...' [...]
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  Posted: October 01, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Second quarter GDP revised, saving ratio up

  Gross domestic product fell by 0.6% in the second quarter, from a previous estimate of 0.7% and an initial 0.8%, so the revisions are heading in the right direction. The change was expected following new estimates of construction output. More... [...]
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  Posted: September 29, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• We're still a nation of spenders, not squirrels

  Will we be spenders or savers? It is a big question for the economy. Without a rise in consumer spending it is hard to get economic growth. It is also a big question for retailers and other businesses relying... [...]
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  Posted: September 27, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• No surprises from the Bank

  The minutes of the Bank of England monetary policy committee's September meeting are more notable for what they did not say than for what they did. The committee voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.5% and persist with the... [...]
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  Posted: September 23, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Job market must be as flexible on the way up

  Unemployment up, wages down, or at least slowing to a record low. It is the story of Britain's labour market now, and it is likely to be so for some time to come. Within that story, however, there are... [...]
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  Posted: September 20, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Big borrowing, weak lending

  The August UK public finances were no worse and on some estimates a little better than expected, though everything is relative these days. Public sector net borrowing was £16.1 billion, compared with £9.9 billion a year earlier. The current budget... [...]
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  Posted: September 18, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Those spending numbers

  A couple of quick points on the great spending row. First, it explains why Alistair Darling, who knew the numbers, was so uncomfortable with Gordon Brown's "Labour investment versus Tory cuts" line. But second, these numbers are not yet set... [...]
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  Posted: September 17, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Unemployment up, earnings growth down

  Unemployment rose, as expected, but the Labour Force Survey measure remained just under the 2.5m level, at 2.47m, and the rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9%, just short of the expected 8%. The claimant count continued the pattern of relatively... [...]
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  Posted: September 16, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Inflation lowest in nearly five years

  Consumer price inflation dropped from 1.8% to 1.6% in August, slightly above expectations, though the lowest since January 2005. It should fall again next month, to just above 1%. Lower food and energy prices were responsible for the fall, with... [...]
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  Posted: September 15, 2009, 6:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Spending cuts won't stop the recovery

  Recessions usually end with a whimper rather than a bang. They peter out as downward momentum fades and the levers turn from negative to positive. What was a torrent of bad news becomes matched, then bettered, by good news.... [...]
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  Posted: September 13, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• No change at the Bank

  Speculation beforehand that the Bank of England might introduce a Swedish-style negative interest rate on commercial bank reserves proved unfounded, as expected. Bank rate was left at 0.5% and the £175 billion programme of quantitative easing maintained. The Bank's unexciting... [...]
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  Posted: September 10, 2009, 8:05am EDT
  by David Smith

• Halifax up in August

  The Halifax house price index rose by 0.8% in August, following a 1.2% rise in July and the annual price fall, measured in the Lloyds-Halifax's usual three-month way, has dropped from 17.7% in April to 10.1% now. House prices have... [...]
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  Posted: September 10, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Growing again

  Official industrial production figures for July suggested strongly that the economy is on course for growth in the third quarter. The 0.5% rise in industrial production between June and July left it 0.9% higher than its second quarter average, suggesting... [...]
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  Posted: September 08, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• 50 economic ideas

  You can never have enough economics, particularly at a time like this, and Ed Conway, economics editor of the Telegraph, has written a commendably comprehensive and concise book setting out 50 of the most important ideas in economics. Each... [...]
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  Posted: September 07, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Blame bankers and regulators, not the market

  As we approach the first anniversary of the great meltdown (having passed the second anniversary of the start of the credit crisis), many questions are unanswered. Financial markets are calming now. The gap between money-market interest rates and Bank... [...]
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  Posted: September 06, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Hold Bank rate, extend QE, says shadow MPC

  In its latest e-mail poll the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted to leave Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters meet next on 10th September. The unanimous SMPC vote reflected the belief that there was... [...]
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  Posted: September 06, 2009, 4:59am EDT
  by David Smith

• OECD versus the surveys

  The OECD, in an interim assessment of the economic outlook, says Britain's GDP will show a small decline in the current quarter and that it will be flat in the final quarter of the year, for an overall GDP fall... [...]
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  Posted: September 03, 2009, 2:00pm EDT
  by David Smith

• Debt stocks and lending flows

  All day yesterday, and this morning, the BBC reported that we had seen the first fall in household debt since 1993, when the current series began. Many of Wednesday's newspapers said the same. Yet that is plainly not the case.... [...]
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  Posted: September 02, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Net lending falls, manufacturing PMI slips

  The eyecatching figure from the Bank of England today was that net lending to consumers fell in July for the first time since comparable records began in 1993. Overall lending dropped by £0.6 billion, with net mortgage lending down by... [...]
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  Posted: September 01, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Recovery surprises leave markets floating on air

  Late August is a dangerous time to write about the stock market, ahead of the autumn storms. This time last year I might have remarked on the solid gains shares were showing during the holiday month, with the FTSE... [...]
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  Posted: August 30, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Second quarter GDP revised up

  The second quarter GDP numbers wrongfooted some City economists, who wrongly thought that exceptionally weak business investment figures for the quarter, released on Thursday, would produce a downward revision to the figures. Top marks to Ben Broadbent and Kevin Daly... [...]
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  Posted: August 28, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Nationwide starts to look like a trend

  The fourth consecutive rise in house prices from the Nationwide, up 1.6% in August compared with July, is also the fourth in a row to show a rise of 1% or more. Just as the monthly falls were larger than... [...]
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  Posted: August 27, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• US housing recession coming to an end

  A recovery in the US housing market is important for the American economy and a stabilisation in home prices is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a return to health of the financial system. Recent numbers on US home... [...]
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  Posted: August 25, 2009, 11:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Dovish King outvoted

  Mervyn King is said to observe that having Tim Besley on the monetary policy committee (MPC) has provided an important bulwark for his desire to put a bigger emphasis on broad money, M4. This King-Besley alliance provided two out of... [...]
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  Posted: August 19, 2009, 4:00pm EDT
  by David Smith

• Inflation sticky at 1.8%

  Consumer price inflation was unchanged in July at 1.8%, against expectations of a fall, while retail price deflation eased from 1.6% to 1.4%. Furniture and alcohol prices were mainly responsible for keeping inflation above expectations. The Bank of England, as... [...]
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  Posted: August 18, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• The UK private sector hasn't shrunk

  Yesterday's Sunday Telegraph contained an article, based on research from the think tank Policy Exchange, that Britain's private sector will be smaller next year than it was in 1998. Fascinating and alarming, if true. The article is here. The economic... [...]
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  Posted: August 17, 2009, 10:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• G7 is returning to growth

  The advanced country recession is coming to an end. After France and Germany last week, now Japan has recorded growth in the second quarter. It will be disappointing if the United States, Canada, Italy and Britain do not see positive... [...]
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  Posted: August 17, 2009, 6:15am EDT
  by David Smith

• Britain needs a global recovery

  Andrew Sentance of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) filled my Sunday Times slot in my absence. This is his piece. The Bank of England released its latest Inflation Report last Wednesday. Since the previous report in... [...]
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  Posted: August 16, 2009, 3:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Three bits of news - one big surprise

  Catching up with developments this week, the three key events as far as the UK economy is concerned were the Bank of England's inflation report, the labour market statistics and eurozone second quarter GDP data. The first two were more... [...]
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  Posted: August 14, 2009, 7:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Bank's easing clips the wings of the rising pound

  So there we were, celebrating the fact that Britain's recession was over bar the shouting, a fact endorsed by sterling's climb to $1.70, its highest level against the dollar since October. Not only that but the evidence was becoming... [...]
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  Posted: August 09, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Bank shocks the market with more QE

  Most people were lined up for a continued pause in quantitative easing by the Bank of England. Instead the monetary policy committee (MPC) chose to increase it by another £50 billion to £175 billion, above the previous £150 billion limit,... [...]
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  Posted: August 06, 2009, 8:05am EDT
  by David Smith

• Car sales up

  For all the sniping at the government's car scrappage scheme, both inside and outside the industry, it appears to have had the desired effect, alongside rising confidence. New car sales in July were up by 2.4% on a year earlier,... [...]
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  Posted: August 06, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Recovery hopes buoyed by strong data

  A string of good figures have boosted hopes of an early UK recovery, with the purchasing managers' index for the service sector rising to 53.2, its highest since February 2008 and the third reading in a row above the 50...' [...]
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  Posted: August 05, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Manufacturing growing again, PMI says

  The relationship between the purchasing managers' surveys and official data has been unpredictable in recent months but on the face of it the latest purchasing managers' index for manufacturing is very good news. It rose above 50 in July, indicating... [...]
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  Posted: August 03, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Young are hit hardest as jobs take a dive

  When does unemployment among young people become as big a political issue as it did in the 1980s? Perhaps not before too long. Nearly a fifth of 18 to 24-year-olds in Britain are out of work, part of a... [...]
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  Posted: August 02, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Hold Bank Rate, extend Quantitative Easing (QE), and beware adverse credit ‘eventsÂ’ says shadow MPC

  Following its latest quarterly gathering on 21st July, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted to leave Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters meet on 6th August. The unanimous SMPC vote reflected the belief that... [...]
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  Posted: August 02, 2009, 4:59am EDT
  by David Smith

• Three in a row from Nationwide

  The Nationwide building society said house prices have risen by 1.3% this month, their third monthly increase in a row. Prices have increased by 4.4% since their recent low in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, 7.5% when unadjusted. These... [...]
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  Posted: July 30, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Vat will surely rise to fill the Treasury hole

  One story that will not go away is the dreadful state of the public finances. It will be around when politicians return in autumn for their party conferences, it will be the defining theme of the run-up to the... [...]
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  Posted: July 26, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Second quarter GDP drops 0.8%

  The good news about the second quarter gross domestic product figures was that the quarterly fall, 0.8%, was only a third of that in the first quarter. The bad news was that it was twice what analysts expected. Some even... [...]
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  Posted: July 24, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Retail sales jump

  Retail sales have held up much better in this recession than many expected, as a result of the boost to disposable income from lower energy prices and mortgage rate cuts, aggressive discounting and the much-maligned VAT cut. June was no... [...]
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  Posted: July 23, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• No clear signal on quantitative easing

  Many in the markets think that the Bank of England's programme of quantitative easing has come to an end, while others believe there is further to go. The monetary policy committee's July minutes, for the meeting in which it decided... [...]
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  Posted: July 22, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Public finances - bad but not as bad as feared

  Maybe we are just getting used to very bad numbers but there was slight sense of relief that the June figures for the public finances were not even worse; they came out marginally better than expected. These things are relative,... [...]
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  Posted: July 21, 2009, 6:30am EDT
  by David Smith

• Britain's banks may be too weak to support the recovery

  The temptation this week is to focus on last week's big rise in unemployment and whether it changes the outlook. The subject has had a good going over, but let me deal briefly with it. Essentially, unemployment rose by... [...]
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  Posted: July 19, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• A strange set of job market figures

  The latest labour market statistics had something for everybody. Green shoots watchers will have taken encouragement from the small rise in the claimant count, up just 23,800 in June to 1.56m, its smallest monthly rise since May 2008. A much... [...]
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  Posted: July 15, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Inflation below target - house prices flat

  There was just a danger that the Bank of England's decision to pause with its quantitative easing programme might have been prompted by a bad inflation reading but that was not the case. Consumer price inflation dropped from 2.2% to... [...]
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  Posted: July 14, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Tear up the rule-book: It's all about borrowing

  If we didnÂ’t know it before last week, we surely do now. The economic policy landscape has changed. People will have different views on the period before the summer of 2007 - the longest run of non-inflationary growth in... [...]
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  Posted: July 12, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Output price deflation

  Factory gate prices for manufactured products were 1.2% lower last month than a year earlier, while input prices were down a significant 11%. The figures largely reflect an unwinding of last year's big increases in energy and commodity prices but... [...]
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  Posted: July 10, 2009, 5:45am EDT
  by David Smith

• Bank holds fire on more QE

  The Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) left Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% but deferred a decision on whether to extend the quantitative easing programme beyond the existing £125 billion until next month. It was always going to be... [...]
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  Posted: July 09, 2009, 8:15am EDT
  by David Smith

• Trade deficit narrows

  Waiting for the trade deficit to narrow in response to sterling's devaluation has required patience and this may be a false dawn but the May numbers, admittedly helped by oil, were better, with a deficit in goods and services of... [...]
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  Posted: July 09, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Halifax down 0.5% - trend flattens

  The Halifax said house prices slipped by 0.5% last month, following May's 2.6% jump. It says the pace of decline is slowing and the average price in June, £157,713, was marginally higher than in March, £157,320. The quarter-on-quarter decline, 1.9%,... [...]
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  Posted: July 08, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Industrial output disappoints - too soon to call the recovery

  After the last set of industrial production figures the National Institute of Economic and Social Research called the end of the recession in March. Now it appears that reports of its death were exaggerated, though the pace of decline is... [...]
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  Posted: July 07, 2009, 8:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Honda effect suggests we are out of the dive

  When people say to me they are confused about what is happening in the economy, I am not surprised. For weeks the talk has been of the recession ending and the possible start of recovery. Then along comes the... [...]
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  Posted: July 05, 2009, 5:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Hold Bank Rate and extend QE, says shadow MPC

  In its latest e-mail poll, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) again voted unanimously to leave Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters meet on 9th July. The unanimous SMPC vote reflected the belief that there... [...]
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  Posted: July 05, 2009, 4:59am EDT
  by David Smith

• All sector PMI up - housing equity withdrawal even more negative

  The service sector purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.6 in June from 51.7 in May but remains consistent with expansion in the sector. Indeed, according to Markit, which produces the data, the June PMIs signal growth for the economy as...' [...]
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  Posted: July 03, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• All-sector PMI up - housing equity withdrawal even more negative

  The service sector purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.6 in June from 51.7 in May but remains consistent with expansion in the sector. Indeed, according to Markit, which produces the data, the June PMIs signal growth for the economy as...' [...]
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  Posted: July 03, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• What Gordon Brown should say on public spending

  It isn't my job to advise Gordon Brown but his performances in prime minister's question time are becoming a national embarrassment. "Zero per cent growth" indeed. However hard he tries to disguise it, the Treasury's plans for the period 2011...' [...]
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  Posted: July 02, 2009, 11:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Credit conditions improve

  It's a slow process but at least it is moving in the right direction. The Bank of England's credit conditions survey suggests a modest improvement in credit availability over the past three months with a further improvement expected over the... [...]
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  Posted: July 02, 2009, 8:00am EDT
  by David Smith

• Manufacturing PMI up again

  The purchasing managers' index for UK manufacturing rose to 47 in June, from 45.4 in May, signalling that the sector is close to stabilising. The output index rose to 52.1. Taken together with official data showing a negligible 0.1% fall...' [...]
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  Posted: July 01, 2009, 6:00am EDT
  by David Smith