Calculated Risk

• Negative Equity Report for Q3

  Here is the Q3 negative equity report from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report: Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.
  
  Data Highlights
  Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 4:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FOMC Minutes: "Unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time"

  The FOMC now sees economic risks balanced, as opposed to tilted towards the downside (I think this is too optimistic). And they also expect unemployment to remain elevated for some time.
  
  Here are the November FOMC minutes. Committee Policy Action: [M]ost members projected that over the next [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income

  Here are three key measures of house prices: Price-to-Rent, Price-to-Income and real prices based on the Case-Shiller quarterly national home price index.
  
  Price-to-Rent
  
  In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Q3 Banking Profile: 552 Problem Banks

  The FDIC released the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile today. The FDIC listed 552 banks with $345.9 billion in assets as “problem” banks in Q3, up from 416 banks with $299.8 billion in assets in Q2, and 252 and $159.4 billion in assets in Q4 2008.
  
  Note: Not [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case Shiller Home Price Graphs

  S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for September this morning.
  
  This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). NOTE: This is the Not Seasonally Adjusted data - the link is broken for the SA data.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:56am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case-Shiller House Prices Increase in September

  Note: I will have graphs as soon as S&P releases the data online.
  
  S&P reports the Composite 10 index increased 0.3% in September, and the Composite 20 index increased 0.3% (both SA). Eleven cities posted increases, nine showed price declines.
  
  From S&P: “We have seen broad improvement in [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:12am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Q3 GDP Revised Down to 2.8%

  From the BEA: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgages: 23% of Borrowers have Negative Equity

  From the WSJ: 1 in 4 Borrowers Under Water The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23% ...
  
  Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages that are [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:43am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Forecasts: Unhappy Holidays for Restaurants and Hotels

  Update on the Chicago Fed Index post: According to the Chicago Fed, the "CFNAI-MA3 moves significantly into positive territory a few months after the official NBER date of the trough". Earlier I was excerpting from the entering recession section. This suggests - using this index - it is [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:23pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Fed asks Big Banks for TARP Repayment Plans

  From Bloomberg: Fed Said to Ask Banks to Submit Plans to Repay TARP (ht MrM) The central bank this month asked Bank of America Corp. and eight other banks to [submit repayment plans with a timetable]. ... Together the nine banks have received about $142 billion in TARP funds [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody’s: Credit Card Delinquencies Rise

  From Bloomberg: Late Card Payments Rose in October, Moody’s Reports Loans at least 30 days overdue, a signal of future defaults, rose to 6.12 percent in October from 5.97 percent in September, Moody’s said ... defaults fell last month to 10.04 percent from 10.72 percent in September, reflecting lower [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 5:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales: Distressing Gap

  After the expected spike in existing home sales last month, I quoted legendary basketball coach John Wooden:"Never mistake activity for achievement." It is worth repeating this month.
  
  First, it is important to remember that existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. What matters for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 1:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales Graphs

  Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):
  
  This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. For the fifth consecutive month, sales were higher in 2009 than in 2008.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales increase sharply in October

  The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Chicago Fed Index: "Economic activity leveled off in October"

  From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity leveled off in October The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –1.08 in October, down very slightly from –1.01 in September.
  ...
  The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.91 in October from –0.67 in September, declining for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WWII Slogan Makes a Comeback

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier posts ...
  Summary and a Look Ahead (A busy week for housing data!)
  
  Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases
  
  Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages
  
  
  From the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:36pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases

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  From the WSJ Real Time Economics: Fed’s Bullard: Asset Buying Efforts Should Remain Active (ht (Bob_in_MA) “I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 7:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages

  Number of comments: 0
  Kenneth Harney at the SF Chronicle lists a few possible changes: FHA looking for ways to pump up its reserves. Harney lists four possible changes:
  
  Higher down payments. The current downpayment requirement is 3.5%, and Harney mentions proposals for an increase to 5% or more. This will [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 4:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

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  This will be a busy week for housing news starting with October existing home sales on Monday, Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday.
  
  Existing home sales will probably be very high - close to a 5.8 million SAAR - because of the rush of [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CRE Owners Seeking Property Tax Relief

  Number of comments: 0
  From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: S.F. commercial properties seek tax relief Landmark skyscrapers, signature hotels and upscale retailers glitter in the San Francisco skyline and enhance its cachet. But with commercial real estate slumping, they soon may subtract badly needed cash from the city's coffers.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 9:34am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Strategic Defaults

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  From Lew Sichelman at the LA Times: Owners' willingness to 'strategically default' on loans depends largely on how far underwater they are (ht Ann)
  
  Most of the LA Times article is based on the paper by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales that I covered in June: Moral' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:22pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jon Stewart on Silver Dome, Goldman Sachs and more

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a link if the embed doesn't work.
  
  ' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 7:40pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Fed and Mortgage Rates

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  Meredith Whitney expressed concern about what will happen when the Fed stops buying GSE MBS by the end of the first quarter 2010. From Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued The Federal Reserve has begun slowing purchases in the $5 trillion market for so-called agency [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 3:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Bank Failure Update

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  Note: The FDIC will probably release the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile next week. The report will show the number of banks on the problem bank list, and the status of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF).
  
  The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Watch: "The Fed in a Corner"

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  From Tim Duy: The Fed in a Corner Over the years, I have warned a seemingly countless number of undergraduates that Fed's hold on monetary independence was tenuous at best. Independence is not guaranteed by the Constitution. Congress made the Fed, and Congress can unmake the Fed. The Fed [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:02am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jim the Realtor: Trustee Sale

  Number of comments: 0
  Jim is featuring a few trustee sale opportunities recently ... the total loan on this one is about $650,000 and the opening bid is $331,500 for a 2100 sq ft house on over 4 acres in a remote area of San Diego:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 12:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 513

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  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net six institutions to 513 while aggregate assets declined to $302.3 billion from $304 billion.
  
  There were 12 institutions added to [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 9:03pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #124 in 2009: Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida

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  Turkey on table
  Carved up by the Central Bank
  MMMM Commerce Bank, Yum!
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Central Bank, Stillwater, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FloridaCommerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida, was [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 5:04pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody's: CRE Prices Off 43% from Peak

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  From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 2:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• National Survey: Data on Home Buying Financing

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is some national data on home buyer financing in October. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission) released today.
  
  Source: October Trends in Existing Home Sales, a presentation from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey on Real Estate Market Conditions.
  
  Thomas Popik, Campbell [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 1:43pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Krugman on AIG

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  From Paul Krugman writing in the NY Times: The Big Squander During the bubble years, many financial companies created the illusion of financial soundness by buying credit-default swaps from A.I.G. — basically, insurance policies in which A.I.G. promised to make up the difference if borrowers defaulted on their debts. [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 12:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unemployment Rate Increases in 29 States in October

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• A Few House Price Forecasts

  Number of comments: 0
  From housing consultant Ivy Zelman commenting on the MBA Delinquency report in the NY Times U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High"I’ve been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down."From Bloomberg: Housing [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 8:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on FHA Loans

  Number of comments: 0
  David Streitfeld at the NY Times adds some color: Easy Loans in Expensive Areas In January, Mike Rowland was so broke that he had to raid his retirement savings to move [to San Francisco] from Boston.
  
  A week ago, he and a couple of buddies bought a two-unit [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• On Negative T Bills

  Number of comments: 0
  There was some buzz earlier today about short term T bill rates turning slightly negative. This happened last year too, but for different reasons ...
  
  From the Financial Times: Short-term US interest rates turn negative Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 9:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• States: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages vs. Unemployment Rate

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  Here is a scatter graph comparing the seriously delinquency rate for mortgage loans vs. unemployment rate for all states. The seriously delinquent rate include 90+ days delinquent loans, and loans in the foreclosure process for Q3 2009 (Source: MBA).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 6:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures by Period Past Due

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  First, on the market ...
  
  This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
  
  Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:49pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 15.7 Percent

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  From HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans leads ADR, RevPAR declines in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 6.4 percent to end the week at 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47.[...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 1:14pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak in 2011

  Number of comments: 0
  On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q3 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:
  
  The problem is moving to prime loans, including fixed rate prime loans, and also FHA loans. "We are seeing the first hit on the weaker prime fixed borrowers." [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:08am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Record 14.4 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  The MBA reports a record 14.4 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2009. This is an increase from 13.2% in Q2 2009.
  
  From the MBA: Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey The delinquency [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 505,000

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. [Revised from 502,000] The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's' [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Failure of Regulatory Oversight

  Number of comments: 0
  This is a recurring theme: a bank fails, the Inspector General reviews the failure and discovers that the field examiners saw problems starting around 2002, and ... nothing happened for years.
  
  We saw this with the Federal Reserve and the failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:33pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to 12 Year Low

  Number of comments: 0
  Another busy day and I skipped the MBA market index earlier ... note: The MBA Q3 delinquency report will be released tomorrow.
  
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• One million Workers to Exhaust Unemployment Benefits in January

  Number of comments: 0
  "It's déjà vu all over again".
  Yogi Berra
  From the NY Times (edit): Jobless Benefits Set to Expire Unless Congress Acts About one million laid-off workers will see their unemployment benefits end in January ...
  
  The [recently] added federal benefits were built on a series of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 5:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Leads the Economy, Existing Home Sales are Irrelevant

  Number of comments: 0
  After reading some of the commentary regarding the housing starts report this morning, it might be useful to reiterate these three points:
  
  Residential investment is the best leading indicator for the economy.
  
  Residential investment will not recover rapidly because of the large overhang of existing [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Quarterly Housing Starts and New Home Sales

  Number of comments: 0
  The Census Bureau has released the "Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design" report for Q3 2009.
  
  Monthly housing starts (even single family starts) cannot be compared directly to new home sales, because the monthly housing starts report from the Census Bureau includes apartments, owner built [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 1:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Falling Rents and Minneapolis

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BLS report on the Consumer Price Index this morning: The rent index decreased 0.1 percent, the index for owners' equivalent rent [OER] was unchanged ... The rent index decreased at a -1.3% annualized rate, and OER declined in three of four ranges (only the Northeast Urban Region' [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 11:25am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Contraction

  Number of comments: 0
  From the American Institute of Architects : Index remains in negative category despite improvement Amidst a continued high level of inquiries for possible new projects, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reached its highest mark since August 2008, just before the serious credit problems emerged in our economy. As a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 9:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts Decline Sharply in October

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 10.6% from the revised September rate, and up from the all time record low in April of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• California Still Faces Large Budget Deficit

  Number of comments: 0
  From the LA Times: California faces a projected deficit of $21 billion Less than four months after California leaders stitched together a patchwork budget, a projected deficit of nearly $21 billion already looms, according to a report to be released Wednesday by the state's chief budget analyst.
  
  The [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 11:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Cash for Caulkers?

  Number of comments: 0
  David Leonhardt writes in the NY Times: A Stimulus That Could Save Money White House officials are now looking at creating a new version of cash for clunkers — this time for home weatherization.
  ...
  [John] Doerr calls his proposal, which would give households money to pay for weatherization [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Next Stimulus: "Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs"

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WaPo: House shifts focus to 'jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs' "It's jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs," Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) ... said ... "Members of this caucus feel ... that a jobless recovery is just simply unacceptable to us." And Reuters list some possible items "under consideration": [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 7:34pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Industrial Production

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier I posted a graph on capacity utilization: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October
  
  Spencer at Angry Bear is tracking the recovery in industrial production compared to previous recessions.As the chart shows, this changes the impression the previous reports had given that this was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 4:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales Increase

  Number of comments: 0
  From DataQuick: Southland home sales up again, drop in median price smallest in 2 years Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 2:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NAHB: Builder Confidence Flat in November

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
  
  The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in November. October was revised down [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Lacker: Fed Can't be "paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness"

  Number of comments: 0
  From Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker The Economic Outlook: Earlier this year some economists were highlighting the risk that the low level of economic activity could push the rate of inflation down, perhaps even below zero. I think the risk of a substantial further reduction in inflation has diminished [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 10:46am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October ... Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent and the output of mines decreased 0.2 percent, but the index for utilities rose 1.6 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:15am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Record Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates in Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  TransUnion reports that the 60 day mortgage delinquency rate increased to a record 6.25% in Q3, from 5.81% in Q2.
  
  From TransUnion: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates on Course to Hit Record in 2009 Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 8:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Merle Hazard: Give me that Old Time Recession

  Number of comments: 0
  Some late night entertainment from Merle Hazard (other hits include Inflation or Deflation?, Mark to Market and H-E-D-G-E)
  
  Note: Merle will be performing live at the annual convention of the American Economic Association, Sunday, January 3, 2010, 8 p.m. in Atlanta.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 11:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Update on Las Vegas Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino

  Number of comments: 0
  In June 2008, reader Brian sent me an email that started: "When the bankers are selecting color schemes, you know a project isn't going well"He was referring to Deutsche Bank foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino in Las Vegas.
  
  Bloomberg has an update: Deutsche' [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 10:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• TARP Watchdog: AIG Bailout Transferred Billions from Government to Counterparties

  Number of comments: 0
  In a report (pdf) titled "Factors Affecting Efforts to Limit Payments to AIG Counterparties", Neil Barofsky, special inspector for TARP, wrote that the "negotiating strategy to pursue concessions from [AIG] counterparties offered little opportunity for success, even in the light of the willingness of one of the counterparty to" [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 9:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Meredith Whitney Expects Double-Dip Recession, FDIC dumps "Cease & Desist"

  Number of comments: 0
  From CNBC (added): Stocks Overvalued, Recession Will Return: Meredith Whitney
  
  From American Banker: FDIC Speaks More Softly, Retains Stick The FDIC changed the name of its cease-and-desist order to the less ominous-sounding "consent order" (a term already used by other regulators) ... David Barr, an FDIC spokesman, [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 3:51pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• LA Area Port Traffic in October

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.
  
  Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 2:24pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at Economic Club of NY

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a live video of Bernanke at the Economic Club of NY
  
  Here is the CNBC feed.
  
  Prepared Speech: On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy How the economy will evolve in 2010 and beyond is less certain. On the one hand, those who [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Business Inventories Decline in September

  Number of comments: 0
  The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed inventories are still declining.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  The Census Bureau reported: Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Retail Sales Increase in October

  Number of comments: 0
  On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 1.7% from October 2008. Excluding auto sales and parts, retail sales rose 0.2% in October.
  
  The increase in October was mostly a rebound from the decline in September.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• IMF: China Needs Stronger Currency

  Number of comments: 0
  From Reuters: Stronger Yuan Needed for Global Rebalancing: IMF Chief IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said ... [China needs to increase emphasis on domestic demand], especially private consumption ...
  
  "A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms," he said. "Allowing the renminbi (yuan) and other" [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 12:13am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts and Vacant Units: No "V" Shaped Recovery

  Number of comments: 0
  On Friday I posted a graph showing the historical relationship between housing starts and the unemployment rate (repeated as the 2nd graph below). The graph shows that housing leads the economy both into and out of recessions, and the unemployment rate lags housing by about 12 to 18 months.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 7:31pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Krugman Suggests $300 Billion Jobs Program

  Number of comments: 0
  "There’s no hard and fast number, but ... I have in mind something like $300 Billion, you could do quite a lot that’s actually targeted on jobs."
  Professor Paul Krugman, Nov 12, 2009 In the following interview, with Alison van Diggelen of Fresh Dialogues, Paul Krugman offers some suggestions for [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 3:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

  Number of comments: 0
  This will be a busy week for key economic news starting with October Retail sales on Monday, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization on Tuesday, and Housing Starts and CPI on Wednesday.
  
  Also on Monday, at noon ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Economic Club of [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 11:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• China Banking Regulator: U.S. Policy Fueling Asset Speculation

  Number of comments: 0
  From Bloomberg: China’s Liu Says U.S. Rates Cause Dollar Speculation “The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication, that in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:20am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Orion Bank CEO Had a Plan ...

  Number of comments: 0
  In his comments with the Unofficial Problem Bank list, surferdude808 noted that the Federal Reserve issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Orion Bank on Thursday. Orion was seized the following day by the FDIC.
  
  The PCA order makes for interesting reading (Note: Stephen at FUMU Finance [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Home Builder's Return on Lobbying

  Number of comments: 0
  Gretchen Morgenson at the NY Times writes about the tax loss carry-back1 "gift" for home builders in the recently signed "Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009": Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift The Center for Responsive Politics reports that through Oct. 26 of this [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 7:18pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Zell on CRE: Too Soon for Grave Dancing

  Number of comments: 0
  From Barron's: Sam Zell: Too Soon for Dancing Sam Zell ... said ... that the time isn't ripe because owners of office, retail and warehouse properties and their lenders are living in a dream world, believing that property prices will recover and vacancies will drop. ...
  
  "Everybody is" [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 4:52pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Deficit Increases

  Number of comments: 0
  The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans. The PBGC deficit doubled over the last six months to $22 billion ... but this is only just the beginning as the agency's potential exposure to future losses increased sharply.
  
  From the' [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 11:58am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• U.K. Mortgage Lenders: Don't Treat Us like "Drug Dealers"

  Number of comments: 0
  This is amusing ...
  
  From the Telegraph: FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief Hitting back at the idea that lenders are “evil” and reckless, [Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) chief] Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 8:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More Losses for TARP

  Number of comments: 1
  When Pacific National Bank of San Clemente was closed by regulators Friday, the TARP lost $4.12 million (ht Matt Padilla). Last week the TARP lost $298.7 million when San Francisco-based United Commercial Bank (UCBH Holdings) failed.
  
  It looks like TARP losses are becoming a trend ... and, oh, [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 12:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 507

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: This was before the three FDIC bank seizures today.
  
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List changed by a net two institutions this week to 507.
  
  Seven institutions with assets of $1.6 billion [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 9:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #123 in 2009: Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, CA

  Number of comments: 0
  Near the waters edge
  Sun sets on Pacific Coast
  A bank, drowned by debt
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California, was [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 8:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failures #121 & 122: Two more in Florida

  Number of comments: 0
  Suited Bureaucrats
  Waiting for critical mass
  Century flames out
  
  What is that white light?
  Orion Supernovas
  Hot money burns bright
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 6:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• State Budget Quote of the Day, and more Bank Failure Preview

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead "I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the" [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 5:07pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure Preview

  Number of comments: 0
  A couple of banks in trouble ...
  
  From Reuters: US credit card issuer Advanta files for bankruptcy (ht jb) The company also said its Advanta Bank's capital is below regulatory requirements and that the bank could turned over to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp receivership.
  
  Advanta said' [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 3:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate

  Number of comments: 0
  This is an update to an earlier post. As I've noted for some time, housing leads the economy and is the best leading indicator for the economy - both into and out of recessions.
  
  Update: Employment tends to be a coincident indicator into recessions, and used to be' [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 12:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Euro Zone GDP Grows in Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  From the NY Times: Euro Zone Officially Out of Recession ... [T]he euro area emerged from recession during the third quarter, helped largely by export growth and improved industrial production in its largest economy, Germany.
  
  The European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Friday that gross domestic product for [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 11:19am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Trade Deficit Increases in September

  Number of comments: 0
  The Census Bureau reports: The ... total September exports of $132.0 billion and imports of $168.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.5 billion, up from $30.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $3.7 billion more than August exports of $128.3 billion. September imports were [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 8:37am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Next Stimulus Package

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier this week I mentioned a possible "upside surprise" for GDP in 2010: With unemployment above 10%, there will be significant political pressure for another stimulus package - especially if the economy starts to slow in the first half of 2010. This next package could be several hundred billion [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 12:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• TARP Inspector General: Taxpayers to suffer Losses

  Number of comments: 0
  From Bloomberg: Barofsky Says TARP ‘Almost Certainly’ Will Bring Loss (ht jb)Neil Barofsky ... said the [TARP] will “almost certainly” result in a loss to U.S. taxpayers.
  ...
  “Tens of billions of dollars are likely to be lost on the automotive bailout,” Barofsky said. In addition, some banks [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 8:17pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in November

  Number of comments: 0
  Update: Title corrected to October.
  
  From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time IndicatorsIn October 2009, U.S. freight railroads originated 1,100,714 carloads, an average of 275,179 carloads per week. That’s down 15.3% from October 2008 (when the weekly average was 324,836 carloads) and down 0.3% from September [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 5:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA on DAPs: "Too many homeowners not equipped for home ownership"

  Number of comments: 0
  The FHA commented on the damage caused by the Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs) today. These DAPs circumvented the FHA down payment requirements by having the seller funnel the "down payment" to the buyer through a "charity" (for a small fee of course). The FHA attempted to stop this practice, but [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 3:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 11.8 Percent

  Number of comments: 0
  From HotelNewsNow.com: Boston leads RevPAR gains in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 3.6 percent to 54.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 8.5 percent US$97.19, and RevPAR decreased 11.8 percent to US$53.29. Click on graph for larger image [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 1:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA Reserves Fall Sharply, Well Below Required Minimum

  Number of comments: 0
  From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Housing Agency Says Cash Reserves Are Down Sharply The Federal Housing Administration said Thursday morning that its cash reserves had dwindled significantly in the last year after a record drop in home prices.
  ...
  The results of the F.H.A.’s annual audit showed [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 11:08am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to Nine Year Low

  Number of comments: 0
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase, Purchase Applications at Nine Year LowThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...
  
  The Refinance Index increased 11.3 percent from the previous week and the [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 9:05am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 502 Thousand

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 502,000:In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000. [revised from 512,000] The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fannie, Freddie, Counterparty Risk and More

  Number of comments: 0
  Yesterday I posted some excerpt from Freddie Mac's 10-Q: We believe that several of our mortgage insurance counterparties are at risk of falling out of compliance with regulatory capital requirements, which may result in regulatory actions that could threaten our ability to receive future claims payments, and negatively impact [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• BofE's Mervyn King: Worst Over, "Long hard haul" Ahead

  Number of comments: 0
  From The Times: The worst is over, says Bank of England Governor Better-than-expected unemployment figures and a rosier growth forecast from the Bank of England raised hopes yesterday that Britain was beginning to claw its way towards economic recovery.
  ...
  Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank, said Britain had [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 7:25pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WSJ on Permanent Modifications

  Number of comments: 0
  Ruth Simon at the WSJ has some details on permanent modifications: Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start The administration won't release figures on completed modifications until December, but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation.
  ...[...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 4:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unsolicited Principal Reduction Offer from BofA

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is an unsolicited Principal Reduction Loan Modification (pdf) offer from BofA. (ht Dwight)
  
  A few background details:
  The homeowner bought the house in May 2005 for $420,000.
  
  The homeowner refinanced in March 2006. This included a negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgage (NegAM ARM) first [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 3:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Economic Outlook: Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks

  Number of comments: 0
  As I've noted several times, my general outlook is for GDP growth to be decent in Q4 (similar to Q3) and for sluggish and choppy GDP growth in 2010. I've been asked to list some possible upside surprises, and downside risks, to this forecast.
  
  Possible Upside Surprises:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 1:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA Temporarily Relaxes Condo Rules

  Number of comments: 0
  Last week the FHA released a temporary guidance that relaxed some of the rules for condominiums. From the FHA: Temporary Guidance for Condominium Policy
  
  The Miami Herald has the key points: FHA moves to boost condo market• Increase from 30 percent to 50 percent the number of [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 11:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Orange County: Foreclosure Notices Hit Record High

  Number of comments: 0
  Matt Padilla at the O.C. Register writes: Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Graph from O.C. Register.
  
  ForeclosureRadar.com reports that outstanding foreclosure auction notices in Orange County rose to 8,895 at [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 8:47am EST
  by CalculatedRisk