Calculated Risk

• More Dubai

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  From The Times: Fear of creditor wipe-out as Dubai jettisons conglomerate Dubai World, the state-owned conglomerate, was effectively abandoned to its fate by the Emirate's Government yesterday despite previous assumptions that Dubai would stand behind the company. That has raised the likelihood that lenders to Dubai World, which has [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 8:58pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Tanta: A Sad Anniversary

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  One year ago today, my friend and co-blogger Doris “Tanta” Dungey passed away.
  
  This has been a very difficult couple of weeks for her family - Tanta's birthday was Nov 15th and she would have been 48. Cathy, Tanta's sister, asked me to pass along the gratitude of her [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 6:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CNBC on Dubai World Debt Restructuring

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  From CNBC: Dubai World to Restructure About $26 Billion of Debt Dubai World said it would try to restructure about $26 billion of debt, far less than the nearly $60 billion in total liabilities that the Dubai government's investment arm had as of August.
  ...
  "Creditors need to" [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 3:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Restaurant Index Shows Contraction in October

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.
  
  Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index. The index is a year-over-year index, so the headline index might [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 1:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• US Treasury Announces "Mortgage Modification Conversion Drive"

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  From the U.S. Treasury: Obama Administration Kicks Off Mortgage Modification Conversion Drive The U.S. Department of the Treasury and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today kick off a nationwide campaign to help borrowers who are currently in the trial phase of their modified mortgages under the Obama [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 11:20am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Increases in November

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  From MarketWatch: CNov. Chicago PMI rises to 56.1%, a 15-month highThe business activity index rose to 56.1% in November from 54.2% in October. ... The employment index rose to 41.9% from 38.3% ... Readings above 50% indicate expansion, and below 50% indicate contraction, so this suggests business activity is [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 9:46am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai: Government Will Not Stand Behind Dubai World Debt

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  From The Times: Investors face huge losses as Dubai abandons debt company The Government of Dubai said today that it will not stand behind its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai World, prompting fears that the company’s creditors could lose billions of dollars.
  
  Today's comment, from Abdulrahman al-Saleh, the director [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 8:39am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More Dubai and Futures

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  From the WSJ: Worries Grow Over Gulf Rift The central bank said it "stands behind" U.A.E. banks and would make available funds to local institutions, including local subsidiaries of foreign banks.
  
  But the statement pointedly didn't mention Dubai, disappointing many market observers. And from the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Times: United Arab Emirates takes hard line on Dubai

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  For some reason The Times has been removed from news stands in Dubai ...
  
  From The Times: Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates takes hard line as Dubai counts soaring cost ... The rulers of Abu Dhabi are expected to make a statement before the markets open [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 7:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

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  The week will start with questions about Dubai, and a Treasury announcement on Monday about a plan to put pressure on lenders to complete modifications.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph is from the most [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 3:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NRF: Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down

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  From the NRF: Black Friday Verdict: As Expected, Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down ... a National Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the expected: more people spent less. According to NRF’s Black Friday shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 1:33pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai Update

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: I'll have a Black Friday retail post in a few hours ...
  
  From Bloomberg: U.A.E. Central Bank Stands Behind Lenders, Adds Funds The United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s local and foreign banks, which face losses from Dubai World’s possible default, and' [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 11:26am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Apartment Rents Fall 4.9% in SoCal

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  From Alejandro Lazo at the LA Times: Falling rents aid homeowners in mortgage trouble Southern California rents peaked at $1,501 in the third quarter of 2008 ... Since then, rents have fallen 4.9%, to an average of $1,427 in the third quarter of this year, according to a survey [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 9:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Abu Dhabi and Dubai: Dueling Headlines

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  From The Times: Abu Dhabi rides in to rescue Dubai from debt crisis
  
  And from the Telegraph: Abu Dhabi will not race to Dubai's rescue
  
  Actually both stories are pretty much the same. From The Times article: An Abu Dhabi official said yesterday it would “pick [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Growth of Problem Banks (unofficial)

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  By request here is a graph of the number of banks on the unofficial problem bank list.
  
  We started posting the Unofficial Problem Bank list in early August (credit: surferdude808). The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 6:52pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Consensus on Permanent Mods: "Program has proved inadequate"

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  It sounds like the permanent mod numbers will be grim ...
  
  From Peter Goodman at the NY Times: U.S. to Pressure Mortgage Firms for Loan Relief The Obama administration on Monday plans to announce a campaign to pressure mortgage companies to reduce payments for many more troubled homeowners, [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 3:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Thanksgiving Weekend Mortgage Litigation Roundup

  Number of comments: 0
  CR Note: This is a guest post from albrt.
  
  Thanksgiving Weekend Mortgage Litigation Roundup
  
  CR forwarded me a couple of links recently, so I told him I’d write up a summary for your holiday weekend entertainment. I’m also including a little ubernerd bonus at the end.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 11:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Your Morning Dubai

  Number of comments: 0
  A collection of articles ...
  
  From The Times: Dubai debt fears threaten credit crunch 2 — and RBS is exposed
  
  From Bloomberg: India Studying Effect of Dubai’s Debt Delay Plan on Its EconomyIndia, the world’s top recipient of migrant remittances, is examining the effect Dubai’s attempt [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 8:02am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Flipper in Trouble?

  Number of comments: 0
  A flipper bought this one in September for $330,000, and has reduced the asking price to $379,000. Still no takers.
  
  Jim the Realtor is watching for "flips turning to flops" and this might be one. For more - and a couple of interviews with Adam (a flipper who [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 9:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Northern Trust on Dubai

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  James Pressler at Northern Trust provides an overview of the Dubai situation: Dubai’s Latest Mega-project – A Massive Default? (pdf) A few excerpts: The complexities of the UAE’s governmental structure make the situation difficult to grasp at first glance, but the problem can be captured by a few basic [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 6:29pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases Significantly

  Number of comments: 0
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The FDIC finally released its enforcement actions for October today, which led to a large increase in the number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List.
  
  This [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 3:07pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Dubai

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  First, since the markets closed early ...
  
  This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
  
  Note that the Great Depression crash is based on [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WaPo: A Liar Loan Example

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  From Donna St. George at the WaPo: The $698,000 mistake [A]ll of this began in the heady days of the mortgage boom ... [Ms. White] only knew that there seemed to be possibilities, even to those with little means such as herself, which is how a woman who had [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 10:53am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• UBS Analysts: Dubai Debt may be more than $80 Billion

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  A little more Dubai news ...
  
  From Bloomberg: Dubai Debt May Be Higher Than $80 Billion, UBS Analysts Say Dubai... may owe more than the $80 billion to $90 billion in liabilities assumed by investors, UBS AG analysts said in a note.
  
  “Perhaps Dubai’s debt includes [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 8:33am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Europe, Asia Sell-Off on Dubai Reports

  Number of comments: 0
  Some Turkey Night reports and futures ...
  
  From The Times: Dubai in deep water as ripples from debt crisis spread Fears of a dangerous new phase in the economic crisis swept around the globe yesterday ... Shares plunged, weak currencies were battered and more than £14 billion was [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 9:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• $430 Billion in CRE Losses?

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  From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: How banks may lose $430 billion more Banks are projected to lose $430 billion on commercial real estate loans in the next two to three years [said] Stan Mullin, an associate with California Real Estate Receiverships in Newport Beach
  ...
  Highlight’s of [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 5:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Music: It's Beginning to Look a Lot More Riskless

  Number of comments: 0
  Happy Thanksgiving! Make sure to check out the previous post on Dubai.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 2:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Dubai Default

  Number of comments: 0
  No one saw this coming ...
  
  From Bloomberg: Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers Dubai is shaking investor confidence across the Persian Gulf after its proposal to delay debt payments risked triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001.
  ...
  Moody’s Investors Service and [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgages: Few Permanent Mods

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  One of the keys to the housing market is the success of the modification programs. The Treasury Department is expected to release a key measurement next month: the number of permanent modifications for the Making Home Affordable program.
  
  Scott Reckard at the LA Times has an overview: Few [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2009, 8:53am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fannie Mae to Tighten Some Standards

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  From the WaPo: Fannie Mae to tighten lending standards (ht Ann, Pat, Tim) Starting Dec. 12, the automated system that Fannie Mae uses to approve loans will reject borrowers who have at least a 20 percent down payment but whose credit scores fall below 620 out of 850. Previously, [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 11:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing: A Weak Start to November

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  A short excerpt from the WSJ Developments: Think Twice About Cheering New Home Sales Already, builders report weak November traffic. One private builder in Raleigh, N.C. - long considered a strong market because of tech and higher-education employers - reports no shoppers in the first week, according to John [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:14pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jim the Realtor Interviews a Real Estate Flipper

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  Jim shows a property and interviews the investor. The investor recently bought the property for $590,000 on the court house steps, and sold it fairly quickly for $685,000.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 7:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bankruptcy Filings Increase 34 Percent

  Number of comments: 0
  From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Up 34 Percent over Last Fiscal Year Bankruptcy cases filed in federal courts for fiscal year 2009 totaled 1,402,816, up 34.5 percent over the 1,042,993 filings reported for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2008, according to statistics released today by the Administrative [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 5:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales

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  Here is more on the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales.
  
  The following graph shows the ratio of existing home sales divided by new home sales through October.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 3:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Rates Fall Slightly

  Number of comments: 0
  I skipped the MBA market index earlier ...
  
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...
  
  The Refinance Index decreased [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 12:38pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• New Home Sales in October

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  The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 430 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 405 thousand in September (revised from 402 thousand).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• October PCE and Saving Rate

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  From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2009 Personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $68.3 billion, or 0.7 percent.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:48am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 466,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 501,000 [revised from 505,000]. The 4-week moving average was 496,500, a decrease of 16,500 from [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• ATA Truck Tonnage Index Declines in October

  Number of comments: 0
  From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Dipped 0.2 Percent in October
  
  Click on graph for slightly larger image in new window.
  
  The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.2 percent in October, [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:37pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators

  Number of comments: 0
  So much data, so little time ... just catching up. This was released earlier today:
  
  Click on map for larger image.
  
  Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Thirty seven [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 6:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Negative Equity Report for Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is the Q3 negative equity report from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report: Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.
  
  Data Highlights
  Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 4:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FOMC Minutes: "Unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time"

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  The FOMC now sees economic risks balanced, as opposed to tilted towards the downside (I think this is too optimistic). And they also expect unemployment to remain elevated for some time.
  
  Here are the November FOMC minutes. Committee Policy Action: [M]ost members projected that over the next [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income

  Number of comments: 0
  Here are three key measures of house prices: Price-to-Rent, Price-to-Income and real prices based on the Case-Shiller quarterly national home price index.
  
  Price-to-Rent
  
  In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Q3 Banking Profile: 552 Problem Banks

  The FDIC released the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile today. The FDIC listed 552 banks with $345.9 billion in assets as “problem” banks in Q3, up from 416 banks with $299.8 billion in assets in Q2, and 252 and $159.4 billion in assets in Q4 2008.
  
  Note: Not [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case Shiller Home Price Graphs

  S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for September this morning.
  
  This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). NOTE: This is the Not Seasonally Adjusted data - the link is broken for the SA data.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:56am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Case-Shiller House Prices Increase in September

  Note: I will have graphs as soon as S&P releases the data online.
  
  S&P reports the Composite 10 index increased 0.3% in September, and the Composite 20 index increased 0.3% (both SA). Eleven cities posted increases, nine showed price declines.
  
  From S&P: “We have seen broad improvement in [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:12am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Q3 GDP Revised Down to 2.8%

  From the BEA: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgages: 23% of Borrowers have Negative Equity

  From the WSJ: 1 in 4 Borrowers Under Water The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23% ...
  
  Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages that are [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 12:43am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Forecasts: Unhappy Holidays for Restaurants and Hotels

  Update on the Chicago Fed Index post: According to the Chicago Fed, the "CFNAI-MA3 moves significantly into positive territory a few months after the official NBER date of the trough". Earlier I was excerpting from the entering recession section. This suggests - using this index - it is [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:23pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Fed asks Big Banks for TARP Repayment Plans

  From Bloomberg: Fed Said to Ask Banks to Submit Plans to Repay TARP (ht MrM) The central bank this month asked Bank of America Corp. and eight other banks to [submit repayment plans with a timetable]. ... Together the nine banks have received about $142 billion in TARP funds [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody’s: Credit Card Delinquencies Rise

  From Bloomberg: Late Card Payments Rose in October, Moody’s Reports Loans at least 30 days overdue, a signal of future defaults, rose to 6.12 percent in October from 5.97 percent in September, Moody’s said ... defaults fell last month to 10.04 percent from 10.72 percent in September, reflecting lower [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 5:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales: Distressing Gap

  After the expected spike in existing home sales last month, I quoted legendary basketball coach John Wooden:"Never mistake activity for achievement." It is worth repeating this month.
  
  First, it is important to remember that existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. What matters for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 1:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales Graphs

  Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):
  
  This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. For the fifth consecutive month, sales were higher in 2009 than in 2008.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:42am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Existing Home Sales increase sharply in October

  The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Chicago Fed Index: "Economic activity leveled off in October"

  From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity leveled off in October The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –1.08 in October, down very slightly from –1.01 in September.
  ...
  The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.91 in October from –0.67 in September, declining for the [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WWII Slogan Makes a Comeback

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier posts ...
  Summary and a Look Ahead (A busy week for housing data!)
  
  Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases
  
  Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages
  
  
  From the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:36pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WSJ Real Time Economics: Fed’s Bullard: Asset Buying Efforts Should Remain Active (ht (Bob_in_MA) “I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 7:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages

  Number of comments: 0
  Kenneth Harney at the SF Chronicle lists a few possible changes: FHA looking for ways to pump up its reserves. Harney lists four possible changes:
  
  Higher down payments. The current downpayment requirement is 3.5%, and Harney mentions proposals for an increase to 5% or more. This will [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 4:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

  Number of comments: 0
  This will be a busy week for housing news starting with October existing home sales on Monday, Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday.
  
  Existing home sales will probably be very high - close to a 5.8 million SAAR - because of the rush of [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CRE Owners Seeking Property Tax Relief

  Number of comments: 0
  From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: S.F. commercial properties seek tax relief Landmark skyscrapers, signature hotels and upscale retailers glitter in the San Francisco skyline and enhance its cachet. But with commercial real estate slumping, they soon may subtract badly needed cash from the city's coffers.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 9:34am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Strategic Defaults

  Number of comments: 0
  From Lew Sichelman at the LA Times: Owners' willingness to 'strategically default' on loans depends largely on how far underwater they are (ht Ann)
  
  Most of the LA Times article is based on the paper by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales that I covered in June: Moral' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:22pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jon Stewart on Silver Dome, Goldman Sachs and more

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a link if the embed doesn't work.
  
  ' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 7:40pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Fed and Mortgage Rates

  Number of comments: 0
  Meredith Whitney expressed concern about what will happen when the Fed stops buying GSE MBS by the end of the first quarter 2010. From Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued The Federal Reserve has begun slowing purchases in the $5 trillion market for so-called agency [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 3:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Bank Failure Update

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: The FDIC will probably release the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile next week. The report will show the number of banks on the problem bank list, and the status of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF).
  
  The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Watch: "The Fed in a Corner"

  Number of comments: 0
  From Tim Duy: The Fed in a Corner Over the years, I have warned a seemingly countless number of undergraduates that Fed's hold on monetary independence was tenuous at best. Independence is not guaranteed by the Constitution. Congress made the Fed, and Congress can unmake the Fed. The Fed [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:02am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jim the Realtor: Trustee Sale

  Number of comments: 0
  Jim is featuring a few trustee sale opportunities recently ... the total loan on this one is about $650,000 and the opening bid is $331,500 for a 2100 sq ft house on over 4 acres in a remote area of San Diego:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 12:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 513

  Number of comments: 0
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net six institutions to 513 while aggregate assets declined to $302.3 billion from $304 billion.
  
  There were 12 institutions added to [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 9:03pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #124 in 2009: Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida

  Number of comments: 0
  Turkey on table
  Carved up by the Central Bank
  MMMM Commerce Bank, Yum!
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Central Bank, Stillwater, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FloridaCommerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida, was [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 5:04pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody's: CRE Prices Off 43% from Peak

  Number of comments: 0
  From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 2:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• National Survey: Data on Home Buying Financing

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is some national data on home buyer financing in October. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission) released today.
  
  Source: October Trends in Existing Home Sales, a presentation from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey on Real Estate Market Conditions.
  
  Thomas Popik, Campbell [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 1:43pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Krugman on AIG

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  From Paul Krugman writing in the NY Times: The Big Squander During the bubble years, many financial companies created the illusion of financial soundness by buying credit-default swaps from A.I.G. — basically, insurance policies in which A.I.G. promised to make up the difference if borrowers defaulted on their debts. [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 12:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unemployment Rate Increases in 29 States in October

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• A Few House Price Forecasts

  Number of comments: 0
  From housing consultant Ivy Zelman commenting on the MBA Delinquency report in the NY Times U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High"I’ve been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down."From Bloomberg: Housing [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 8:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on FHA Loans

  Number of comments: 0
  David Streitfeld at the NY Times adds some color: Easy Loans in Expensive Areas In January, Mike Rowland was so broke that he had to raid his retirement savings to move [to San Francisco] from Boston.
  
  A week ago, he and a couple of buddies bought a two-unit [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• On Negative T Bills

  Number of comments: 0
  There was some buzz earlier today about short term T bill rates turning slightly negative. This happened last year too, but for different reasons ...
  
  From the Financial Times: Short-term US interest rates turn negative Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 9:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• States: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages vs. Unemployment Rate

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a scatter graph comparing the seriously delinquency rate for mortgage loans vs. unemployment rate for all states. The seriously delinquent rate include 90+ days delinquent loans, and loans in the foreclosure process for Q3 2009 (Source: MBA).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 6:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures by Period Past Due

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  First, on the market ...
  
  This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
  
  Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:49pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 15.7 Percent

  Number of comments: 0
  From HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans leads ADR, RevPAR declines in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 6.4 percent to end the week at 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47.[...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 1:14pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak in 2011

  Number of comments: 0
  On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q3 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:
  
  The problem is moving to prime loans, including fixed rate prime loans, and also FHA loans. "We are seeing the first hit on the weaker prime fixed borrowers." [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:08am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Record 14.4 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  The MBA reports a record 14.4 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2009. This is an increase from 13.2% in Q2 2009.
  
  From the MBA: Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey The delinquency [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 505,000

  Number of comments: 0
  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. [Revised from 502,000] The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's' [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Failure of Regulatory Oversight

  Number of comments: 0
  This is a recurring theme: a bank fails, the Inspector General reviews the failure and discovers that the field examiners saw problems starting around 2002, and ... nothing happened for years.
  
  We saw this with the Federal Reserve and the failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:33pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to 12 Year Low

  Number of comments: 0
  Another busy day and I skipped the MBA market index earlier ... note: The MBA Q3 delinquency report will be released tomorrow.
  
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• One million Workers to Exhaust Unemployment Benefits in January

  Number of comments: 0
  "It's déjà vu all over again".
  Yogi Berra
  From the NY Times (edit): Jobless Benefits Set to Expire Unless Congress Acts About one million laid-off workers will see their unemployment benefits end in January ...
  
  The [recently] added federal benefits were built on a series of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 5:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Leads the Economy, Existing Home Sales are Irrelevant

  Number of comments: 0
  After reading some of the commentary regarding the housing starts report this morning, it might be useful to reiterate these three points:
  
  Residential investment is the best leading indicator for the economy.
  
  Residential investment will not recover rapidly because of the large overhang of existing [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Quarterly Housing Starts and New Home Sales

  Number of comments: 0
  The Census Bureau has released the "Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design" report for Q3 2009.
  
  Monthly housing starts (even single family starts) cannot be compared directly to new home sales, because the monthly housing starts report from the Census Bureau includes apartments, owner built [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 1:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Falling Rents and Minneapolis

  Number of comments: 0
  From the BLS report on the Consumer Price Index this morning: The rent index decreased 0.1 percent, the index for owners' equivalent rent [OER] was unchanged ... The rent index decreased at a -1.3% annualized rate, and OER declined in three of four ranges (only the Northeast Urban Region' [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 11:25am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Contraction

  Number of comments: 0
  From the American Institute of Architects : Index remains in negative category despite improvement Amidst a continued high level of inquiries for possible new projects, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reached its highest mark since August 2008, just before the serious credit problems emerged in our economy. As a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 9:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts Decline Sharply in October

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 10.6% from the revised September rate, and up from the all time record low in April of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• California Still Faces Large Budget Deficit

  Number of comments: 0
  From the LA Times: California faces a projected deficit of $21 billion Less than four months after California leaders stitched together a patchwork budget, a projected deficit of nearly $21 billion already looms, according to a report to be released Wednesday by the state's chief budget analyst.
  
  The [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 11:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Cash for Caulkers?

  Number of comments: 0
  David Leonhardt writes in the NY Times: A Stimulus That Could Save Money White House officials are now looking at creating a new version of cash for clunkers — this time for home weatherization.
  ...
  [John] Doerr calls his proposal, which would give households money to pay for weatherization [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Next Stimulus: "Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs"

  Number of comments: 0
  From the WaPo: House shifts focus to 'jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs' "It's jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs," Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) ... said ... "Members of this caucus feel ... that a jobless recovery is just simply unacceptable to us." And Reuters list some possible items "under consideration": [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 7:34pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Industrial Production

  Number of comments: 0
  Earlier I posted a graph on capacity utilization: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October
  
  Spencer at Angry Bear is tracking the recovery in industrial production compared to previous recessions.As the chart shows, this changes the impression the previous reports had given that this was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 4:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales Increase

  Number of comments: 0
  From DataQuick: Southland home sales up again, drop in median price smallest in 2 years Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 2:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NAHB: Builder Confidence Flat in November

  Number of comments: 0
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
  
  The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in November. October was revised down [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Lacker: Fed Can't be "paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness"

  Number of comments: 0
  From Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker The Economic Outlook: Earlier this year some economists were highlighting the risk that the low level of economic activity could push the rate of inflation down, perhaps even below zero. I think the risk of a substantial further reduction in inflation has diminished [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 10:46am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October ... Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent and the output of mines decreased 0.2 percent, but the index for utilities rose 1.6 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:15am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Record Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates in Q3

  Number of comments: 0
  TransUnion reports that the 60 day mortgage delinquency rate increased to a record 6.25% in Q3, from 5.81% in Q2.
  
  From TransUnion: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates on Course to Hit Record in 2009 Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 8:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Merle Hazard: Give me that Old Time Recession

  Number of comments: 0
  Some late night entertainment from Merle Hazard (other hits include Inflation or Deflation?, Mark to Market and H-E-D-G-E)
  
  Note: Merle will be performing live at the annual convention of the American Economic Association, Sunday, January 3, 2010, 8 p.m. in Atlanta.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 11:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Update on Las Vegas Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino

  Number of comments: 0
  In June 2008, reader Brian sent me an email that started: "When the bankers are selecting color schemes, you know a project isn't going well"He was referring to Deutsche Bank foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino in Las Vegas.
  
  Bloomberg has an update: Deutsche' [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 10:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk