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The Everyday Economist

  • Are Money and Bonds Perfect Substitutes?

    Frequent reader might recall that I recently posed a simple thought experiment: Suppose that banks increase their demand for bank reserves. Now suppose that the Federal Reserve increases bank reserves correspondingly. What happens to the broader money supply? What happens to nominal income? What happens to inflation? I suggested that the answer [...]
    Posted: December 08, 2009, 11:16pm EST
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “I am prepared to offer pushback against the Sumner-Hetzel viewpoint. However, it really deserves the status of the “null hypothesis.” In a more reasonable world, everyone would be starting from the presumption that Sumner and Hetzel are correct. Those of us arguing folk-Minskyism and telling the Recalculation Story should be [...]
    Posted: December 04, 2009, 3:08pm EST
    by Josh
  • Money: A Thought Experiment

    Number of comments: 5
    Suppose that banks increase their demand for bank reserves. Now suppose that the Federal Reserve increases bank reserves correspondingly. What happens to the broader money supply? What happens to nominal income? What happens to inflation? The answer is nothing. I have been trying to make this point in several posts (see here, [...]
    Posted: December 03, 2009, 11:51am EST
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “The downturn phase of an Austrian cycle is often misunderstood — even by some of its proponents — as necessarily involving a reduced rate of monetary expansion. In fact it comes about as the result of the return of real interest rates to their “natural” levels, which is inevitable no [...]
    Posted: December 03, 2009, 11:45am EST
    by Josh
  • Gold and Inflation

    Number of comments: 2
    I recently agreed to have some of my posts reproduced over at Seeking Alpha. Yesterday’s post on monetary policy is one such post. In the comments, I was sarcastically criticized as, among other things, advocating a policy that would lead to gold selling at $12,000 an ounce. I am not [...]
    Posted: December 03, 2009, 11:37am EST
    by Josh
  • Can Money Be Tight If The Fed Does Nothing?

    Number of comments: 5
    There seems to be a lot of debate in the blogosphere about how to evaluate whether monetary policy is too tight. Specifically, Arnold Kling notes: According to Sumner, we know that the Fed tightened because we know that real interest rates on TIPS rose. The real rate is the nominal rate [...]
    Posted: December 02, 2009, 2:14pm EST
    by Josh
  • SEA Update

    I had a great time at the SEA meetings in San Antonio. I thought the session went very well. I also had the opportunity to discuss a variety of topics with my fellow panelists. Looking around the blogosphere, it appears that others enjoyed the session as well. David Beckworth, one of [...]
    Posted: November 28, 2009, 10:28am EST
    by Josh
  • “Made In” Labels

    Whenever I discuss international trade in a principles course, I like to put the name of a particular product on the board that is “made in” another country. We then discuss where components of that product are made. Location and the complexity of production often result in using an automobile [...]
    Posted: November 28, 2009, 10:15am EST
    by Josh
  • SEA Meetings

    Number of comments: 2
    The Southern Economic Association will be holding its meeting in San Antonio beginning on Saturday. I bring this up because I have put together a session entitled, “Nominal Income Targeting, the Productivity Norm, and Monetary Stability.” The panel consists of George Selgin, Scott Sumner, David Beckworth, and myself. We will [...]
    Posted: November 19, 2009, 12:21am EST
    by Josh
  • For Your Listening Pleasure

    Enclosure: [download]
    I have been rather busy as of late and haven’t had time to post. While you are waiting, you might enjoy a few podcasts that I have been listening to while driving and working out: Charles Plosser on Bloomberg on the Economy with Tom Keene (the link is to an .mp3 [...]
    Posted: November 16, 2009, 12:57pm EST
    by Josh
  • In Defense of Allan Meltzer

    Number of comments: 3
    Allan Meltzer is one of the greatest monetary economists to have ever lived (although credit is also due to his long-time collaborator Karl Brunner, who Meltzer would be the first to acknowledge). This is not hyperbole. Meltzer’s work emphasizes the role of imperfect information, uncertainty, and transactions costs in developing [...]
    Posted: November 03, 2009, 10:23pm EST
    by Josh
  • Assessing the Stimulus

    Number of comments: 1
    The current administration has unveiled an entirely new metric for measuring the success of stimulus spending. Rather than claim credit for “creating” jobs, they have focused on jobs that were “created or saved” by the stimulus. This, of course, is a preposterous notion. How do we know that a job [...]
    Posted: October 31, 2009, 3:16pm EDT
    by Josh
  • The Future of Too Big Too Fail

    As we emerge from the financial crisis, it is important to develop a framework for dealing with failing institutions. In particular, the nature of the doctrine of “too big to fail” must be addressed and re-examined. Recently, John Taylor and Larry White have spoken out about the need for a [...]
    Posted: October 29, 2009, 11:30am EDT
    by Josh
  • Prisoner’s Dilemma

    The prisoner’s dilemma illustrated via YouTube: HT: John Taylor UPDATE: Scott Sumner writes, “I’ve never been more proud to be human.” [...]
    Posted: October 26, 2009, 12:23am EDT
    by Josh
  • Taylor

    Why didn’t anyone tell me that John Taylor is blogging? In any event, Taylor does some of the best work in the profession — thoughtful, careful, and persuasive. Definitely check out the blog. [...]
    Posted: October 18, 2009, 11:04pm EDT
    by Josh
  • There is No Such Thing as ‘Clutch’

    Those who know me personally can attest to the fact that I am a big sports fan. More importantly, I am a sports fan who pays close attention to statistics and what those statistics mean — especially in baseball. One of my biggest pet peeves as a sports fan is [...]
    Posted: October 16, 2009, 2:54pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Dow 10,000!

    Again. [...]
    Posted: October 14, 2009, 3:14pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Measurement Before Theory, Part 3: A Further Reply to Arnold Kling

    Number of comments: 4
    Arnold Kling writes: What happened one year ago that caused the economy to tank over the winter? (a) a credit crunch. Banks would not lend to one another, and they cut back on credit to businesses, which in turn caused the contraction in economic activity. (b) a recalculation. People found out that their [...]
    Posted: October 03, 2009, 1:05am EDT
    by Josh
  • Measurement Before Theory, Part 2: A Reply to Arnold Kling

    Number of comments: 3
    Arnold Kling has posted a lengthy reply to David Beckworth, Nick Rowe, and myself. I will first respond only to his criticism of my previous post. (Hopefully, if I have time later, I will respond to the broader arguments that he puts forward.) Arnold writes: This issue of causality is a natural [...]
    Posted: September 29, 2009, 12:02pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Measurement Before Theory

    Number of comments: 1
    Arnold Kling has been developing a macroeconomic theory that he refers to as “Recalculation”. It is somewhat of a takeoff of real business cycle theory (Kling himself has referred to this as “not your father’s real business cycle theory). David Beckworth highlights three main features of Kling’s analysis: (1) Monetary policy [...]
    Posted: September 29, 2009, 12:31am EDT
    by Josh
  • Hamilton on Repos

    James Hamilton has written an excellent post on Federal Reserve repos. I would also recommend his contribution to The Road Ahead for the Fed if you are interested in this sort of analysis of the Fed’s balance sheet. [...]
    Posted: September 28, 2009, 12:47pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “Thomas Friedman talks a good game. He speaks as if he is sure he has identified the growth industries of the century, but has he put his money where his mouth is? If he is so certainly right, has he mortgaged his house(s) and invested accordingly? I’d bet he has [...]
    Posted: September 23, 2009, 1:07pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Costs and Benefits of Cash for Clunkers

    An abstract from a new paper from The Economists’ Voice: Burton Abrams and George Parsons of the University of Delaware evaluate the efficiency of the recently introduced ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program and conclude that the cost exceeds the benefit by approximately $2000 per vehicle. (Sorry, the link is gated.) [...]
    Posted: September 22, 2009, 8:24am EDT
    by Josh
  • The Tire Tariff

    Brad DeLong on the tire tariff: Let’s see… 250 million cars in America… need 4 tires per car… need new tires every 2.5 years. 400 million tires a year… $1.4 billion dollars a year… 10,000 worker jobs saved… $140,000 dollars per worker-job per year. Looks like we could (a) let the Chinese [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2009, 10:15pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Graph of the Day

    David Beckworth revives his excellent summary of the Depression debate — in graphical form. [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2009, 3:39pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Cato Unbound: Monetary Lessons

    This month’s Cato Unbound looks especially promising. It is entitled, “Monetary Lessons from the Not-So-Great Depression” and features a lead essay from Scott Sumner and will have contributions from James Hamilton, George Selgin, and Jeffrey Hummel. You can read Sumner’s lead essay here. [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2009, 10:17am EDT
    by Josh
  • Friedman, Schwartz, Keynes, and Bernanke

    Number of comments: 5
    Penn Bullock has written a piece for Reason explaining that, despite being called such by the popular press, Bernanke is not a Keynesian. Quite the contrary, Bernanke is following the prescriptions laid out in Friedman and Schwartz’s Monetary History of the United States. Unfortunately, while Bullock is correct in claiming [...]
    Posted: September 08, 2009, 4:00pm EDT
    by Josh
  • What I’m Reading

    1. The Purchasing Power of Money by Irving Fisher 2. The Road Ahead for the Fed [...]
    Posted: September 06, 2009, 10:22pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Happy (Division of) Labor Day!

    In keeping with tradition, we celebrate the division of labor on Labor Day. [...]
    Posted: September 06, 2009, 10:16pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Stone’s Fall

    Number of comments: 1
    I have been reading a bit more fiction this summer and recently finished Iain Pear’s new novel Stone’s Fall. The reason that I reference the book here is because, in addition to being a good novel, it is replete with references and lessons in economics. The book is centered around [...]
    Posted: August 24, 2009, 11:54pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Best. Title. Ever.

    A new NBER working paper by Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick is entitled “Haircuts.” It’s a great title and an interesting paper. Here is the abstract: When “confidence” is lost, “liquidity dries up.” We investigate the meaning of “confidence” and “liquidity” in the context of the current financial crisis. The financial [...]
    Posted: August 24, 2009, 11:15am EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “I have been reading [John] Taylor’s various arguments very closely since last fall. I also read a lot about the failure of modern economics, and how modern macroeconomists in particular have been proven completely worthless. But reading Taylor has made me really think twice about those statements.” — Pete Boettke [...]
    Posted: August 19, 2009, 11:05am EDT
    by Josh
  • Yet More Unseen Effects from Cash for Clunkers

    Courtesy of Division of Labour: Mechanics don’t seem to like the program…. …nor do charities. [...]
    Posted: August 11, 2009, 3:45pm EDT
    by Josh
  • A Mass Breakout of Laziness

    Number of comments: 4
    It seems to have become the purpose of this blog for me to defend ideas that I don’t particularly believe in. First, I had to defend claims about the stimulus package despite my opposition to it. Now, I must defend real business cycles. First, our friend Arnold Kling offers an alternative [...]
    Posted: August 11, 2009, 3:34pm EDT
    by Josh
  • A Tale of Marginal Analysis

    Number of comments: 1
    Casey Mulligan has written a post entitled, “The Laws of Economics Have Been Suspended”. Here is the gist: Professor Krugman is also saying this week that this recession has nothing to do with bad incentives to earn labor income. (Bless him for citing me! When this is all over, I would [...]
    Posted: August 04, 2009, 11:15pm EDT
    by Josh
  • More on Cash for Clunkers

    Russ Roberts: Imagine you’re a member of Congress. You’re a fan of the Cash for Clunkers program. You discover that the $1 billion that Congress budgeted for the program has been spent in FOUR DAYS. The program is now out of money. What do you do? A. Realize that $4500 per clunker [...]
    Posted: August 04, 2009, 10:54pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Cash For Clunkers

    Number of comments: 1
    Randall Forsyth on “Cash for Clunkers”: What’s especially dispiriting is that this lesson was taught more than a century and a half ago by French economist Frederic Bastiat. A shopkeeper’s window was broken by a little boy, which made for extra business for the glazier who fixed it. Extended to the ultimate, [...]
    Posted: August 04, 2009, 10:52pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Steroids, Baseball, and Economics

    Number of comments: 2
    Steve Buffum writes: I was thinking of this when I read Buster Olney’s description of the behavior of baseball players in 2003 in the face of steroid testing. Olney seemed to believe that this was a spectacular case of outrageous “selfishness” on the part of those players who chose to use [...]
    Posted: August 03, 2009, 11:25am EDT
    by Josh
  • Friedman’s Birthday

    Number of comments: 3
    Today, July 31, was Milton Friedman’s birthday. Here is a clip of Milton Friedman, at his best, 30 years ago: [...]
    Posted: July 31, 2009, 3:19pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    Number of comments: 1
    “Recently I read that the current low energy prices are actually a “bad thing,” because they will discourage consumers form conserving. I found this interesting, as I think the current low prices are a bad thing because they reflect consumers conserving energy. Why are they “conserving” energy? Because they are [...]
    Posted: July 29, 2009, 12:48am EDT
    by Josh
  • Krugman on Health Care

    Number of comments: 3
    In a recent post, Paul Krugman makes the following argument as to why the free market cannot provide health care: You could rely on a health maintenance organization to make the hard choices and do the cost management, and to some extent we do. But HMOs have been highly limited in [...]
    Posted: July 27, 2009, 3:41pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Has Macroeconomics Failed?

    Number of comments: 2
    I thought about titling this post, “Macroeconomics as fortune-telling”, but ultimately decided against it. In any event, there has been much discussion recently about the purported failures of modern macroeconomics. A recent article in the Economist has only fueled the flames. Mario Rizzo provides this pithy summary of the story: …the [...]
    Posted: July 19, 2009, 10:35pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Graph of the Day

    Number of comments: 1
    Isn’t it time for the Fed to consider eliminating interest payments on excess reserves? [...]
    Posted: July 14, 2009, 11:38am EDT
    by Josh
  • What Super-neutrality Really Isn’t

    Number of comments: 1
    Our friend Nick Rowe pays homage to Milton Friedman in one of his latest posts on what monetary policy cannot do. Indeed, Friedman’s speech to the AEA in 1967 should be required reading for any who wish to learn about monetary policy (it is indeed required reading for my Money [...]
    Posted: July 08, 2009, 11:31pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Do We Need More Fiscal Stimulus?

    Number of comments: 1
    Last week, David Leonhardt wrote: In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope. [...] There are two possible explanations that the administration was so wrong. And sorting through them matters a great deal, because they point in opposite [...]
    Posted: July 08, 2009, 10:42am EDT
    by Josh
  • Inflation is a Monetary Phenomenon, But This Isn’t Inflation

    Number of comments: 3
    There has been much talk recently about the potential inflation on the horizon given the unprecedented movement of the Federal Reserve of increasing the monetary base through quantitative easing. The talk has predominantly surrounded the substantial increase in the monetary base. However, increases in the monetary base are not sufficient [...]
    Posted: July 04, 2009, 12:08am EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    Number of comments: 1
    “In any event, it is not like the only alternatives available to us are a government-run health insurance plan or unregulated laissez faire.” — Greg Mankiw [...]
    Posted: June 30, 2009, 10:17am EDT
    by Josh
  • More on Interest Rates

    Frederic Mishkin on rising bond yields: When the Federal Open Market Committee meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will face a serious dilemma. Since the last committee meeting six weeks ago, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by around 70 basis points (0.70%), with the result that the interest [...]
    Posted: June 23, 2009, 11:23am EDT
    by Josh
  • What I’m Reading

    Number of comments: 1
    Interest and Prices by Michael Woodford — again Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle by Jordi Gali Some Fiscal Calculus by Harald Uhlig Street Fighters: The Last 72 Hours of Bear Stearns, the Toughest Firm on Wall Street by Kate Kelly [...]
    Posted: June 18, 2009, 12:02am EDT
    by Josh
  • Can We Please Raise the Level of the Debate?

    In all of our self-importance, economists and political pundits have seen the current recession as a time to argue about whether markets clear. Inevitably, the discussion on financial news networks always devolves into a debate about whether markets are efficient, etc.* (Incidentally, can I call cross-talk and yelling a discussion? [...]
    Posted: June 17, 2009, 11:28pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “In modern teaching an “A” is the grade you get when you have done nothing wrong. So I give the Fed an A for predicting the crisis, because they did nothing wrong there, and a D for adopting a monetary policy far too contractionary for the needs of the economy [...]
    Posted: June 17, 2009, 10:18pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Becker on the Pay Czar

    Gary Becker on the pay czar: The title of my post, “The Fatal Conceit”, is taken from the title of a book published in 1988 by Friedrich Hayek. In this book Hayek attacks socialists for “the fatal conceit” that government officials can effectively determine prices and production through various forms of [...]
    Posted: June 14, 2009, 11:23pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Was Keynes Correct?

    My answer is going to be much more nuanced than the title might imply, but I think it is something that a discussion of this type requires. For example, it would be quite natural to answer the question in the title with another question (”Was he correct about what?”). The [...]
    Posted: June 10, 2009, 3:40pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Should We Fear Rising Bond Yields?

    Number of comments: 4
    There seems to be some concern as to the rising yields on long-term bonds. Our friend Jimmy P. (now of Reuters) quotes Scott Grannis, who writes: The Fed is trying to fight a force of nature—the bond market—and they are bound to lose. Purchasing long-maturity Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities or corporate bonds [...]
    Posted: June 04, 2009, 11:56pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Teenagers and the Job Market

    Number of comments: 1
    The Detroit News reports: Teen unemployment in Michigan is expected to hit 28 percent this summer, up 2.7 percentage points from last summer Of the 304,400 students in Michigan ages 16-19 who are expected to be looking for a job, only 219,200 are likely to get one, making the job search an [...]
    Posted: May 31, 2009, 12:40am EDT
    by Josh
  • Clive Granger, 1934 – 2009

    James Hamilton offers his thoughts on the recent passing of Clive Granger. [...]
    Posted: May 29, 2009, 11:19pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Jimmy P Has Moved

    Our friend James Pethokoukis has moved. He is now blogging for Reuters. Update your bookmarks. [...]
    Posted: May 21, 2009, 2:29pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Not a Good Sign

    When the government proposes a program that will increase the costs of companies and the CEOs start talking favorably about the program, it is generally not a good sign that the policy is going to be effective. [...]
    Posted: May 21, 2009, 2:08pm EDT
    by Josh
  • About those “Buy American” provisions…

    The Washington Post reports: Ordered by Congress to “buy American” when spending money from the $787 billion stimulus package, the town of Peru, Ind., stunned its Canadian supplier by rejecting sewage pumps made outside of Toronto. After a Navy official spotted Canadian pipe fittings in a construction project at Camp Pendleton, [...]
    Posted: May 17, 2009, 9:48pm EDT
    by Josh
  • In Search of Monetary Stability

    Number of comments: 5
    I have been discussing a multitude of issues including quantitative easing, Ricardian Equivalence, and the current state of monetary policy with Scott Sumner over the in comments of his excellent blog and it has given me the inspiration to provide a more thorough outline of my thinking. I think that the [...]
    Posted: May 11, 2009, 3:42pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote(s) of the Day

    Number of comments: 1
    It is actually a tie regarding the proposed $17 billion cuts in the $3.4 trillion budget: “What really worries me is what it says about the Obama Administration’s opinion about the intelligence of the American people. Either they think most Americans are stupid or most Americans are stupid. Or both.” — [...]
    Posted: May 07, 2009, 10:59pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Gross Versus Net Job Creation

    Number of comments: 2
    One of my pet peeves is when politicians trumpet their particular program as a “job creator.” In Michigan, we have the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, which is a partnership of the state government and local governments and is headed by a board of directors comprised of business people. According to [...]
    Posted: May 04, 2009, 2:37pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Silver Lining

    Number of comments: 1
    I have long decried the subsidization of ethanol. However, it appears that this incredible waste has produced a positive externality: Two soft drinks with connections to the past were launched this week for a national eight-week run. Pepsi Throwback and Mountain Dew Throwback are sweetened with sugar made from cane and beets, [...]
    Posted: May 02, 2009, 10:12pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Big Players, Again

    I have discussed Koppl’s theory of Big Players before (see here and here). Today, we are treated to another example. From the WSJ: “Like many others I made the mistake of buying what I believed was ‘value,’” Mr. Gwin says, adding that investors who bought at the time believed the loans [...]
    Posted: April 30, 2009, 1:52pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Stress Tests

    It turns out the stress tests were not all that stressful. [...]
    Posted: April 24, 2009, 10:35pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Quote of the Day

    “The credit card stocks didn’t tumble or anything so my question is with all this cheap talk who is Obama pandering to? Even if the terms of sub-prime mortgages are a big mystery, the terms of credit cards aren’t. Everybody knows cards have high interest rates and that they always [...]
    Posted: April 23, 2009, 11:01pm EDT
    by Josh
  • The SDR

    David Beckworth and I discuss the SDR in the comments of his recent post. [...]
    Posted: April 22, 2009, 11:18pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Monetary History and Policy

    Scott Sumner has an excellent post on the impact of Friedman and Schwartz’s Monetary History of the United States on our thinking about monetary history and policy. You can read my thoughts in the comments of that post. [...]
    Posted: April 21, 2009, 11:15am EDT
    by Josh
  • Subsidizing Lemons

    Number of comments: 2
    Suppose that you are in the market for a car. You have no knowledge of the actual value of each individual car. The seller, however, knows exactly how well the car runs, whether it has been in accident, how many repairs it has undergone, etc. Thus, deciding how much you [...]
    Posted: April 10, 2009, 12:20am EDT
    by Josh
  • WSU Blogging

    Number of comments: 1
    The Wayne State blogging presence is growing (at least for this week) as Robert Rossana is guest blogging this week for the Detroit Free Press on the stimulus package. Here is an excerpt from today’s post: All governments have a budget constraint stating that, sooner or later, spending must be paid [...]
    Posted: April 06, 2009, 10:39pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Big Players and Uncertainty, Part 2

    Some readers may recall an earlier post in which I explained that many of the failures of the attempts at government intervention have to do with the fact that the government is exercising discretionary power that change the rules of the game on a largely ad hoc basis. Particularly, I [...]
    Posted: April 02, 2009, 1:12am EDT
    by Josh
  • People Respond to Incentives

    Number of comments: 3
    I normally don’t do politics, but I found this comment from President Obama during his recent press conference particularly irksome: People are still going to be able to make charitable contributions. It just means if you give $100 and you’re in this tax bracket, at a certain point, instead of being [...]
    Posted: March 25, 2009, 11:28pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Bernanke pushes the accelerator

    From the FOMC statement: In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low [...]
    Posted: March 19, 2009, 12:50am EDT
    by Josh
  • AIG

    Number of comments: 1
    A couple people asked my opinion on AIG, so I thought I would post something. Basically, my thoughts are mostly summarized by Andrew Ross Sorkin: Everyone from President Obama down seems outraged by this. The president suggested on Monday that we just tear up those bonus contracts. He told the Treasury [...]
    Posted: March 19, 2009, 12:47am EDT
    by Josh
  • Tournament Time

    You can fill out a NCAA tournament bracket and compete against me, James Hamilton, and others by joining the Econbrowser group on ESPN. Also, given that it is tournament time, the discussions of lost productivity will be in full force. For those interested in why those studies are nonsense, you can [...]
    Posted: March 16, 2009, 10:30pm EDT
    by Josh
  • Keynesian Versus New Keynesian Multipliers

    Number of comments: 1
    A new paper from Cogan, Cwik, Taylor and Wieland suggests that the estimated multipliers are inflated: Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently [...]
    Posted: March 09, 2009, 12:32pm EDT
    by Josh
  • The Tone

    Number of comments: 5
    The tone of the debate is growing more and more contentious. This time Greg Mankiw is noticeably cantankerous — and rightfully so. Paul Krugman recently challenged Mankiw’s skepticism that the administration’s forecast for growth is optimistic by dismissing him out of hand despite the fact that Mankiw has actually contributed [...]
    Posted: March 04, 2009, 11:40pm EST
    by Josh
  • The Macro Battle Continues

    Number of comments: 2
    Willem Buiter of LSE is writing for the Financial Times. His latest post is a “takedown” of modern macroeconomics. David Andolfatto critiques modern New Keynesian (NK) models and then unloads on Buiter: My beef with the NK paradigm is this in a nutshell. It is a model that ignores money and [...]
    Posted: March 04, 2009, 11:24pm EST
    by Josh
  • Estimating the Multiplier

    Number of comments: 3
    As many of you know, I have expressed skepticism that the stimulus package will work. At the heart of the debate is whether the multiplier associated with government spending is greater than one. Some recent literature should allow us to do some back-of-the-envelope calculations of the multiplier. A recent paper by [...]
    Posted: March 03, 2009, 11:23am EST
    by Josh
  • A Random Thought

    Number of comments: 1
    If money can’t buy happiness, can it buy confidence? [...]
    Posted: March 02, 2009, 10:41pm EST
    by Josh
  • Calling Dow 6800

    Reviewing that analysis, the cyclical, technical and economic reasons for a potential market collapse from Dow 12k to 6800 is still worth reading today. But the timing? Not so much . . . That is our friend Barry Ritholtz on his famous (infamous) 6800 call in 2006. I’d say better late than [...]
    Posted: March 02, 2009, 10:41pm EST
    by Josh
  • Money and Banking Text

    Greg Mankiw recommends the latest edition of Lawrence Ball’s Money and Banking textbook. I actually received a review copy of the latest edition about a week or so ago and I must say that I am impressed. I currently use Mishkin’s text, which is also very good, along with some [...]
    Posted: March 01, 2009, 11:50pm EST
    by Josh
  • Romer on the Stimulus

    The success of the stimulus package hinges on the multiplier effect of the increase in government spending. In a talk at the University of Chicago, CEA chair Christina Romer defended her estimate of the multiplier as well as more general criticism of the package. [...]
    Posted: February 27, 2009, 11:31pm EST
    by Josh
  • Whose Moment is This?

    Number of comments: 5
    It seems to have become somewhat of a contest among pundits, politicians, and economists to name the most relevant economist for the current crisis. Here are the latest: Greg Ransom points out that Sears Chairman Eddie Lampert is recommending that shareholders read Hayek. A recent Bloomberg article opens, “So long, Milton Friedman. [...]
    Posted: February 27, 2009, 3:00pm EST
    by Josh
  • Multimedia

    Enclosure: [download]
    I highly recommend Tom Keene’s interview with Marvin Goodfriend. Keene, as always, asks the right questions. You can see Robert Skidelsky’s speech to the Manhattan Institute on Keynes and Hayek this weekend on C-SPAN’s Book TV. I haven’t yet seen the speech, but Skidelsky is always fun to listen to. [...][...]
    Posted: February 27, 2009, 2:52pm EST
    by Josh
  • What I’m Reading

    1. Mario Rizzo presents a more nuanced version of Keynes with respect to fiscal stimulus. 2. The Money Illusion — an interesting new blog from Scott Sumner. I would note that his posts on the current crisis and the refutation of the Austrian business cycle theory by Friedman and Schwartz are [...]
    Posted: February 25, 2009, 11:31pm EST
    by Josh
  • Leijonhufvud on the Financial Crisis

    Number of comments: 1
    Axel Leijonhufvud has written an excellent policy paper for CEPR. Some highlights after the jump. On the determination of the price level and monetary policy: In the days of metallic standard, the price level was ultimately determined by the demand and supply of monetary metal. The system could be imitated on a fiat [...]
    Posted: February 20, 2009, 3:54pm EST
    by Josh
  • Industrial Production

    Number of comments: 1
    A disturbing graph via Casey Mulligan. [...]
    Posted: February 19, 2009, 12:33pm EST
    by Josh
  • Recommended Reading

    1. “Demand for Commodities Is Not Demand for Labor” — Peter Klein 2. “The False Alarm of 2008 Continues” — Casey Mulligan 3. Mario Rizzo asks how we will be able to judge the success of stimulus ex post. 4. Will Ambrosini on technical regress (or, in other words, understanding what negative technology [...]
    Posted: February 17, 2009, 10:08pm EST
    by Josh
  • Labor Productivity and the Recession

    Number of comments: 1
    Casey Mulligan’s new working paper is now available through NBER (non-gated version here). Here is the abstract: A labor market tautology says that any change in labor usage can be decomposed into a movement along a marginal productivity schedule and a shift of the schedule. I calculate this decomposition for the [...]
    Posted: February 17, 2009, 11:43am EST
    by Josh
  • You Cannot Be Serious!

    Number of comments: 5
    The debate over stimulus has no progressed to the point at which certain individuals are now claiming that wasteful government spending is stimulus. Case in point, Jonathan Chait: Normal spending is judged on those terms–whether the goods or services justify their cost. The point of stimulus spending, by contrast, is simply [...]
    Posted: February 13, 2009, 3:16pm EST
    by Josh
  • The Geithner Plan

    Pictures are worth a thousand words. [...]
    Posted: February 10, 2009, 10:19pm EST
    by Josh
  • The Stimulus Will Fail

    Number of comments: 2
    Recently, I have been receiving a great deal of email that has resulted in responses in which I find myself either defending the stimulus package or defending the proponents of the stimulus package. These defenses, however, have much more to do with the flawed reasoning of fellow stimulus skeptics than [...]
    Posted: February 09, 2009, 11:37pm EST
    by Josh
  • A Primer on Ricardian Equivalence

    A primer on Ricardian equivalence, government debt, and deficits from John Seater in the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics: A related issue is the desirability of deliberately using deficits to influence the path of the economy. Under full equivalence of deficit and tax finance, no such thing can be done, of course, [...]
    Posted: February 09, 2009, 12:26am EST
    by Josh
  • Economic Reporting

    Russ Roberts edits the AP story about the jobs report “in case you’d like to read it without the opinions and overwrought verbs of the reporter.” [...]
    Posted: February 08, 2009, 9:25pm EST
    by Josh
  • More Modern Macro

    Number of comments: 1
    “DSGE Models and Central Banks” by Camilo Tovar. Here is the abstract: Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy [...]
    Posted: February 07, 2009, 12:01am EST
    by Josh
  • An Interview With Robert Barro

    Some of you may recall that Paul Krugman referred to Robert Barro’s analysis of the multiplier associated with World War II spending as “boneheaded.” Admittedly, I did agree with Krugman to the extent that the period in question is not ideal for such measurement given the variety of other simultaneous [...]
    Posted: February 06, 2009, 11:27pm EST
    by Josh
  • The Stimulus Debate and the Stimulus Package

    Number of comments: 1
    Will Wilkinson has been ridiculing macroeconomics for the last few weeks for the apparent inability of theory to provide a consensus view on the stimulus package. While I admit that there is a great deal of debate among economists about the desirability of the stimulus package, one must understand both [...]
    Posted: February 05, 2009, 12:20am EST
    by Josh
  • McArdle, Stimulus, and the Literature

    Number of comments: 1
    Megan McArdle writes: The real question, I think, is how close the permanent income hypothesis is to being true. Well, there is some recent literature by John Seater (and co-authors) that suggests it is true (see here, here, and here). She continues: The basic idea is that people are forward looking, and they try [...]
    Posted: January 31, 2009, 10:39pm EST
    by Josh
  • Modern Macro

    Number of comments: 2
    I echoed Will Ambrosini’s call for critics of modern macro to survey the literature. Here are a couple papers (non-gated) that provide an overview: Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis by Michael Woodford The Econometrics of DSGE Models by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde I would actually recommend the debut issue of the American [...]
    Posted: January 30, 2009, 11:06pm EST
    by Josh

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