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  • Satan and the G-16: A Sacrilegious Rant and a (Modest?) Proposal

    It appears now that the G-20 intend to make their compromise with the devil. That’s pretty much inevitable, since the devil is one of them. When I say the devil, I am of course referring to the nation that invented the automobile (hint, President Obama: not the US). It [...]
    Posted: March 14, 2009, 11:53am EDT
  • Even Worse than Paul Krugman Imagines?

    Reading Karl Smith’s comment on my previous entry, I started to think about the implications of rational expectations in the context of potential deflation. I’m thinking of a model like “Rational Expectations meets Calvo Pricing meets the Keynesian Multiplier meets the Mundell-Tobin Effect.” It goes something like this:
    [...]
    Posted: February 16, 2009, 6:39pm EST
  • What happens to the inflation when the output gap is zero?

    In a blog post a couple of weeks ago, Paul Krugman presents a scatterplot of the change in the inflation rate (y) as a function of the output gap (x), with the following regression line: y = 0.5228 x - 0.4739 I'm puzzled as to why he includes a' [...]
    Posted: February 15, 2009, 9:50pm EST
  • Pork is Essential for Good Health

    Yeah, it's not just "good for you"

    Here's how things stand: the stimulus bill is way too small, it's floundering in the Senate, and we stand possibly on the edge of a deflationary abyss.

    Solution: find, say, the 5 most wavering Republican senators and offer them each' [...]
    Posted: February 06, 2009, 1:36pm EST
  • Time for a Price Level Target, and a Damned High One!

    If you believe in a NAIRU, or anything remotely like a NAIRU or an accelerationist Phillips curve, the prognosis for prices is looking increasingly ugly. For those who believe confidently in such a Phillips curve and accept historical estimates of the parameters, deflation is now a certainty, and severe [...]
    Posted: February 06, 2009, 10:00am EST
  • Irrational Policy

    Following up on my last post concerning Nick Rowe's application of rational expectations to public policy: it occurs to me that the way to look for evidence of policy effectiveness is to find cases where policy was, in retrospect, irrational. In other words, look for cases where policymakers' [...]
    Posted: January 11, 2009, 8:48pm EST
  • Rational Policy

    Why is it that so many economists assume that private agents are rational but policymakers are irrational?

    Breaking with that rather silly custom, Nick Rowe (hat tip: Mark Thoma) applies the rational expectations concept to policymakers and reaches the conclusion that we will never be able to [...]
    Posted: January 11, 2009, 7:40pm EST
  • Snarking Bloomberg

    A headline on Bloomberg: Fed Loans Guided by Raters Grading Subprime Debt AAA Oh, my God! You mean the Fed is actually relying on ratings provided by major ratings agencies? Can you imagine such a thing? And did you know there are homosexuals in Iran? Shocking, isn't it? Hard' [...]
    Posted: December 18, 2008, 12:01pm EST
  • Krugman on Steinbrueck

    If I were a currency trader, I'd be selling Euros.' [...]
    Posted: December 11, 2008, 3:22pm EST
  • Phillips Curve Presages Deflation

    Back of the envelope analysis:


    UE rate is now 6.7%.
    Almost certain to rise over next couple of months.
    Probably at 7% early in '09.

    The most optimistic estimates have recession ending about halfway thru '09.
    Stimulus program heavy on public works will be slow to implement.[...]
    Posted: December 07, 2008, 2:09pm EST
  • I’m with Mephistopheles

    Paul Krugman makes the case for deliberately providing too much of an economic stimulus. Here I want to examine the counter-case, for which I think there is a valid argument, although it doesn’t seem to be the argument that anyone is actually making. In the end, though, I agree [...]
    Posted: December 03, 2008, 1:46pm EST
  • My Fantasy

    As a postscript to my last two blog entries, I want to imagine a possibility.

    Suppose that the Treasury were to retire all its outstanding long-term debt, and suppose that the Fed were to buy enough of its short-term debt to keep the interest rate at [...]
    Posted: December 02, 2008, 8:59pm EST
  • Behold the Power of Seignorage

    For Sepetmber 2008, the monetary base was reported at $903.5 billion. For October, it was reported at $1.1285 trillion. That's an increase of $225 billion. That's how much money the Fed created directly in one month. A couple of months of that would be enough to finance last year's federal' [...]
    Posted: December 02, 2008, 10:49am EST
  • Treasury Finance Policy

    Just a quick thought. Ben Bernanke suggested today that the Fed might start buying longer maturity Treasury securities now that it has done about all it can at the short end of the yield curve. Sounds like a good idea, but here's my question: If reducing yields on longer-term Treasuries' [...]
    Posted: December 01, 2008, 10:43pm EST
  • Not in Kansas Any More

    I put together a series for commodity prices as measured by various CRB indexes. Since there have been a couple of new CRB indexes introduced at certain times, and the new indexes have each eventually supplanted the earlier version, I patched together a series going back to 1950 using the [...]
    Posted: November 30, 2008, 5:46pm EST
  • Deflation Can Happen

    I’m not saying it will happen, or even that it’s likely. As a matter of fact, if you offer me less than 6:1 odds, I won’t even consider a bet on deflation, even taking into account its hedge value (since deflation is likely to be associated with bad real outcomes). [...]
    Posted: November 29, 2008, 10:33am EST
  • Giving with One Hand and Taking with the Other

    I admit I supported Barrack Obama in both the Democratic primaries and the general election. I still think he’ll make a better president than either John McCain or Hillary Clinton would have. And I think he’s quite an intelligent person, with a reasonable layman’s understanding of economics. But every now [...]
    Posted: November 28, 2008, 3:02pm EST
  • Are Useful Projects Really Better than Useless Ones?

    In my last post I argued ...the general purpose of stimulus packages is to mobilize the economy's unused resources, and, in this particular case, to...prevent prices from plummeting. Does the presence of pork in a package...in any way hinder the pursuit of such purposes? As far as the deflation' [...]
    Posted: November 26, 2008, 1:52pm EST
  • Why Even Bad Bailouts are a Good Deal

    Why? Because the government gets to pay with monopoly money and get paid back with real money.

    Right now, with the T-bill rate at approximately zero, the Fed can effectively create an unlimited amount of money to finance the government. No matter how many T-bills the Fed buys, the [...]
    Posted: November 25, 2008, 11:51am EST
  • Pork is Good for You

    (My apologies to those with religious dietary restrictions...and to those who hate the letter P)

    Greg Mankiw's hypothetical alliterative stimulus critic worries that the stimulus package will be "pointless, political, and pork-filled." Perhaps. But it's hard for this person to perceive how a proposal that is political and [...]
    Posted: November 25, 2008, 10:18am EST
  • Gurantee the Liabilities

    Here's my Monday evening quarterbacking. They should have guaranteed Citigroup's liabilities (in other words, extending deposit protection to other types of creditors and to large depositors) rather than its assets. (Perhaps nobody had the authority, but Congress should give them that authority now in case the same thing happens again.) [...]
    Posted: November 24, 2008, 11:03pm EST
  • Memo to Tim Geithner: Retire the TIPS

    Before the Treasury decided to start issuing TIPS, I was a strong advocate for inflation-adjusted bonds. At the time, I felt that people were overly concerned with inflation. (That was the mid-90’s, and I think subsequent experience bore out that opinion.) I thought that the government should issue indexed bonds [...]
    Posted: November 23, 2008, 7:57pm EST
  • Deflation?

    The bad news is that the headaches and fatigue you’ve been experiencing aren’t just stress. According to our tests, you have a serious illness, and if it’s not treated soon, you could be dead within a year or two.

    The good news is that the treatment is 100% covered [...]
    Posted: November 20, 2008, 6:17pm EST
  • Deficit Hawks are Like Protectionists

    Everybody knows that, in the aggregate, trade increases welfare. We can quibble about how to aggregate welfare across individuals, but at least in a Kaldor-Hicks sense, trade increases welfare. In that aggregate welfare sense, trade is a free lunch, and that lunch is wasted if nobody eats it. But protectionists [...]
    Posted: November 12, 2008, 5:47pm EST
  • The Chinese Fiscal Stimulus, correction

    Damn, this gets so complicated when you try to do it rigorously. In my earlier post, my mind had scrambled together 3 or 4 different models, thrown in some extra stuff to try to make the result realistic, and ended up with a high-cholesterol omelet. Now that I have [...]
    Posted: November 11, 2008, 7:24pm EST
  • GM is not Lehman

    I’m generally in favor of bailing out the US auto industry, mostly because such a bailout would be a relatively inexpensive form of fiscal stimulus. Compare the cost of bailing out the auto industry to the cost of trying to replace the lost jobs by means of government hiring. (There [...]
    Posted: November 10, 2008, 11:42am EST
  • The Chinese Fiscal Stimulus

    [EDIT: OK, I take it all back. Well, not all of it, but some of it. With the benefit of some perspicacious comments, 50 minutes of jogging, and 200 mg of modafinil, I see that I was mixing up several different models in my mind (an inherent hazard when you [...]
    Posted: November 10, 2008, 11:07am EST
  • To Hell with the Long Run

    For Christ's sake stop worrying about the long run and whether long run US fiscal policies will be sustainable. We should be trying as hard as possible to undermine confidence in the creditworthiness of the US government, and especially in the soundness of the US currency. We should be doing [...]
    Posted: November 07, 2008, 11:21am EST
  • Ireland

    It pisses me off that that the EU is taking acton against Ireland for violating the deficit rules. As we face the prospect of a possible worldwide depression, we should be encouraging deficits as large as possible. I think the US should retaliate by pursuing an explicit weak dollar policy, [...]
    Posted: November 07, 2008, 11:09am EST
  • Broken Links

    I'm starting to notice a lot of broken links on the Internet. I wonder if this is part of the impact of the financial crisis. Maintaining archives on the Web involves some cost for server space, bandwidth, and maintenance costs. When financing was easy and business was good, this cost [...]
    Posted: October 26, 2008, 9:33pm EDT
  • $700 Billion? So What?

    Guaranteeing an asset is equivalent to buying the asset while giving the seller an option to repurchase at the same price. Conversely, buying an asset is equivalent to guaranteeing the asset while retaining an option to purchase at the guarantee price. (The proof is left as an exercise for the [...]
    Posted: October 12, 2008, 6:32pm EDT
  • Not Time to Affix Blame

    So let me get this straight. The reason the stock market crashed today is that the Republicans in the House were so immature that a little grudge about something mean that Nancy Pelosi said was more important to them than saving our financial system. Shame on you, Speaker Pelosi! [...]
    Posted: September 29, 2008, 7:46pm EDT
  • The US Treasury Needs a Better Marketing Department

    Whether or not Secretary Paulson intended it, the phrase “troubled asset relief program” (TARP), from his original speech describing the program as he envisioned it, lent the standard acronym to his plan to provide liquidity to the financial system by buying illiquid distressed assets. Not a good name for the [...]
    Posted: September 29, 2008, 11:44am EDT
  • Foolish

    From an email I sent, dated 9/12/2008
    I just can’t see the Fed and the Treasury sitting idly by while Lehman starts to go into default. The argument for inaction would be that they don’t want to create incentives for risky behavior in the future, and certainly (if it comes [...]
    Posted: September 29, 2008, 8:37am EDT
  • Incentives for the Dictator

    If Congress insists on passing something like the Paulson plan, it should have the following feature: The Secretary of the Treasury will no longer get a salary. Instead, he will be paid entirely in the form of a performance bonus. If the TARP makes a loss, he gets nothing. If [...]
    Posted: September 24, 2008, 5:51pm EDT
  • Latest Idea to Fix the Banking System

    Offer to buy $700 billion in preferred stock in a single auction (where banks quote dividend yields to bid on funds, and the bids are accepted starting with the highest until all the funds are used up); put a tax (temporary in principle but with no specific time limit) on [...]
    Posted: September 24, 2008, 9:45am EDT
  • A Simpler Solution

    I just got an email that proposes a simpler solution to the financial crisis. Just use the $700 billion (or more) to buy preferred stock in shaky financial institutions. That solves both the capital problem and the liquidity problem (the latter by deferring indefinitely the need to sell [...]
    Posted: September 23, 2008, 10:06am EDT
  • I’ve Solved the Banking Crisis

    Now if I can only get Congress to listen :)

    Here is the KNZN-II plan
    1. Give the Treasury authority (or does it already have the authority?), on an ad hoc basis, to make commitments to insure the liabilities of individual financial institutions, so as to prevent “runs” by creditors. [...]
    Posted: September 22, 2008, 8:13pm EDT
  • Acronym Time

    I was a little late to pick this up, but the Paulson plan is now "TARP" -- the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a phrase taken from Secretary Paulson's statement on Friday. Apparently, some commentators had already taken to using this acronym soon after the statement came out. I [...]
    Posted: September 22, 2008, 3:00pm EDT
  • The Banking Crisis

    Some people think the problem is liquidity. Others think the problem is capital. For some reason, both sides seem to insist that their side is entirely right and the other side is entirely wrong. It seems pretty clear to me that liquidity and capital are both significant problems. Why is [...]
    Posted: September 22, 2008, 2:10pm EDT
  • Socialism and the Banking System

    In one recent post, I came close to advocating the overthrow of the capitalist system. Well, not exactly. But I did suggest that a policy which, at the time, I described as “socialist,” or at least a credible threat of implementing such a policy, might be necessary in order [...]
    Posted: September 22, 2008, 8:56am EDT
  • The Paulson Plan: Summary of My Recent Posts

    Providing liquidity is what the government should be doing. Recapitalizing banks (without receiving equity participation) is what the government should not be doing. If the government does the former and not the latter, then, although taxpayers are taking a large risk, they should expect, if things go well, [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 9:06pm EDT
  • I Changed My Mind

    By definition, the fair price of a risky asset is one that allows a high return. Therefore, if the Treasury intends to buy distressed assets at a fair price, it must intend to get a high return, which is to say, it must intend not only for the taxpayers to [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 8:04pm EDT
  • Illiquidity and Uncertainty

    My next post is going to go in a very different direction from my earlier ones, but for now I want to make a point about liquidity. People are telling me that the liquidity issue is bullshit, but they’re wrong, and here’s why.

    Mortgage securities have ratings. A [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 7:22pm EDT
  • Recapitalization?

    I was all set to write another post about “The Great Bailout,” but apparently Paul Krugman has already said about half (the more important half) of what I wanted to say, so I’ll outsource, with my own comments interspersed to supply the other half. Prof. Krugman is leaning against [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 5:15pm EDT
  • Why the Cost of the Bailout Doesn’t Matter, part 1

    Let’s suppose that, as some people seem to insist, the government will not recover a cent from the distressed assets it buys in the big bailout. What will the bailout cost the taxpayers?

    As I argued in my previous post, it will not cost today’s taxpayers anything. But what [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 11:14am EDT
  • Bailouts for Fun and Profit

    OK, this pisses me off. David Stout, writing a Q&A in The New York Times (“The Wall Street Bailout Plan, Explained”):
    Q. Who, really, is going to come up with the $700 billion?

    A. American taxpayers will come up with the money, although if you are bullish [...]
    Posted: September 21, 2008, 2:13am EDT
  • Why Short Selling Matters

    Arnold Kling (hat tip: Matthew Yglesias) argues that short-selling can’t “destroy a good company” because if the company is good, someone will always be willing to pay a good price for it and will be willing to buy it from the short-seller at that good price. But his [...]
    Posted: September 20, 2008, 2:04pm EDT
  • How many people have lost their jobs?

    According to Barack Obama, 600 thousand Americans have lost their jobs since January. Actually, he's wrong: something like 20 million Americans have lost their jobs since January. It's just that most of them found new jobs. Probably the new jobs generally weren't as good as the ones they lost. [...]
    Posted: September 18, 2008, 12:00am EDT
  • WSJ Factual Error

    From the top story in today’s Wall Street Journal:
    At one point during the day, investors were willing to pay more for one-month Treasurys than they could expect to get back when the bonds matured....That’s never happened before.
    Actually it has happened before, not in the easily available data, but [...]
    Posted: September 18, 2008, 12:00am EDT
  • Moral Hazard for Corporations, part 2

    I agree with Mark Kleiman's main points here, but this one, as my previous post would suggest, I think is a mistake:
    Why shouldn't the government bail out a private company that isn't a regulated bank? Moral hazard. You don't want to protect AIG shareholders from the consequences of [...]
    Posted: September 17, 2008, 12:22am EDT
  • Moral Hazard for Corporations

    With all the talk about “moral hazard” lately, I have realized something: there is a basic flaw in the way the subject is typically discussed with respect to financial corporations. I’m not saying that the people discussing it are necessarily misunderstanding, but the terms in which it’s typically discussed will [...]
    Posted: September 16, 2008, 11:05am EDT
  • Third Rant of the Day

    When it rains, it pours. This one is really sort of a repeat of my first rant, but with more explanation and less sarcasm. Well, more explanation, anyhow.

    Here’s Treasury Secretary Paulson at a press briefing this afternoon:
    I never once considered that it was appropriate [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2008, 8:13pm EDT
  • Careless, Disingenuous, or Just Ignorant?

    Donald Luskin in the Washington Post:
    Obama is flat-out wrong when he frets on his campaign Web site that "the personal savings rate is now the lowest it's been since the Great Depression." The latest rate, for the second quarter of 2008, is 2.6 percent -- higher than the [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2008, 1:55pm EDT
  • Moral Hazard and Protecting the Taxpayer

    What? You've been doing business with the 4th largest investment bank in the country? How imprudent of you! We can't allow such rashness to be rewarded. No, we must let the market punish you for your imprudence. Otherwise, it will encourage people to do such risky things in the future [...]
    Posted: September 15, 2008, 8:39am EDT
  • Drilling makes us more dependent on foreign oil

    Just thought I should point out that US oil reserves are not inexhaustible, and that most of the oil in the world is still elsewhere. If we continue to feed our addiction to oil-based energy by producing more in the US, that means, when our reserves are depleted, we will [...]
    Posted: September 05, 2008, 11:14am EDT
  • GDP Report is Good News; Deflator Critics are Wrong

    Some people (mentioned here, for example) are denigrating the GDP report, which appears to show a 1.9% rate of real growth, on the grounds that the deflator – used to convert from nominal GDP to real GDP – is artificially low because it doesn’t include imports (which have become [...]
    Posted: July 31, 2008, 7:13pm EDT
  • Porn and Transportation are Substitutes

    OK, I couldn't leave this one alone. Greg Mankiw points to some research showing that "many websites focused on adult or erotic material have experienced an upswing in sales in the recent weeks" since the stimulus checks were mailed out. I can buy the theory that many of their [...]
    Posted: July 06, 2008, 12:55am EDT
  • Should we develop alternative fuels?

    Until someone convinces me otherwise, I'm going to go with "no" -- at least if by "fuels" you mean carbon compounds that are used to release energy through combustion. Combustion of carbon compounds produces carbon dioxide, which aggravates global warming. If we're running out of oil, let's just run out, [...]
    Posted: June 16, 2008, 7:40pm EDT
  • Pigou and the Anthropophagi

    Why does the salmon here cost more than the chicken? There ought to be a tax on chicken.

    Why?

    On chicken and meat and eggs and dairy products.

    Why?

    Because farm animals are bad for the environment.

    How?

    They contribute to global warming.
    [...]
    Posted: June 12, 2008, 7:26pm EDT
  • Definition

    Sex worker:

    (1) a prostitute

    (2) anyone in a sex-related occupation, including a psychiatrist with a specialization in sexual disorders or a cashier in a convenience store that rents adult videos

    (3) someone in an occupational category broader than (1) and narrower than (2), the precise specification [...]
    Posted: May 14, 2008, 3:48pm EDT
  • Supply Response and Self-Unfulfilling Recession Prophecies

    In a post last year, I argued that one reason economists have not successfully forecast recessions is that recession forecasts, or near-recession forecasts, prompt policymakers (usually the Fed) to act so as to prevent a recession. Only when the recession is unexpected (i.e. not forecast) will policymakers fail to [...]
    Posted: May 01, 2008, 11:03am EDT
  • Bear Sterns

    I started this post last Monday and then got distracted. Looking at it now, I think the fragment is worth preserving.
    I’ve spent the past week being pissed off at all the people who were pissed off about the so-called “bailout” of Bear Stearns. In the light of this morning’s [...]
    Posted: March 30, 2008, 11:04am EDT
  • Where is Sex in the NAICS?

    This business with Eliot Spitzer is bringing up issues in labor economics for me. In particular, how should we refer to Ms. Dupré’s occupation? Some people insist that she was a “sex worker.”

    I have a number of problems with this terminology. For one thing, is there any other [...]
    Posted: March 22, 2008, 11:18pm EDT
  • What's going on?

    In Paul Krugman’s latest column (hat tip: Mark Thoma), he compares the current financial crisis to the bank runs of 1930 and 1931:
    The financial crisis currently under way is basically an updated version of the wave of bank runs that swept the nation three generations ago. People aren’t [...]
    Posted: March 21, 2008, 5:31pm EDT
  • Capital Flight is Good

    Some people (Yves Smith and Tim Duy, to name two, but I’m sure there are many others that I haven’t gotten around to reading yet) are worried that concern about capital flight is going to have to be a constraint on the Fed’s ability to deal with this [...]
    Posted: March 17, 2008, 7:15pm EDT
  • Moral Hazard

    [Hypothetical future investor]: I own a major stake in an investment bank, and I’m getting concerned about their risk management. Should I bring this up at the shareholders’ meeting?

    [Hypothetical friend]: I don’t see why. What’s the worst that can happen? The bank will go sour, the Fed will [...]
    Posted: March 16, 2008, 11:54pm EDT
  • TSLF: Is the government taking a risk?

    In one of the latest blogospheric analyses of the Fed’s plans to accept private-label mortgage backed securities as collateral, James Hamilton concludes that the government is taking on a definite risk (specifically, although the Fed is the agent, it is really the Treasury’s risk, since the Fed’s profits are [...]
    Posted: March 16, 2008, 6:36pm EDT
  • Now I like Eliot Spitzer

    Eliot Spitzer has always struck me as a pompous, self-righteous, arrogant, heavy-handed, politically motivated ass. I find the publicly disgraced hypocrite to be a much more sympathetic character. Pretty much the bad things about Spitzer were things I already knew. I didn’t know the specifics of his being a john [...]
    Posted: March 15, 2008, 11:06am EDT
  • This inflaiton report scares me.

    Quoting myself from the comments section of my last post:
    ...Japan had plenty of missed opportunities in the early to mid 90s to prevent the depression from getting out of hand. It was only when the inflation rate went to zero...that it really became intractable.
    Speak of the devil, and [...]
    Posted: March 14, 2008, 4:57pm EDT
  • Rising Inflation Expectations: Bad News or Good News?

    Suppose that Greg Mankiw and others are correct in suggesting that inflation expectations have risen dramatically. Is this bad news or good news?

    By way of full disclosure, I should note that it’s clearly good news for me, since I’m short nominal Treasury notes. If you follow the [...]
    Posted: March 09, 2008, 7:29pm EDT
  • Inflation Expectations

    This chart is showing up in too many places. The latest, to which I link, is Greg Mankiw's blog.

    The implication is that the expected CPI inflation rate over the next ten years has risen from its typical value of around 2.5% to around 3.4% recently. There's little [...]
    Posted: March 09, 2008, 12:16pm EDT
  • Tax That Guy Behind the Tree

    Megan McArdle is right (here and here), and Henry Farrell and Mark Kleiman are -- perhaps not exactly wrong, but as far as I can tell, they are either misunderstanding what she says or quibbling on minor points of semantics while apparently believing themselves to have [...]
    Posted: February 22, 2008, 5:16pm EST
  • St. Augustine

    I guess I was a little early with the Augustine reference back in August 2006, and maybe I should have translated it into English, but it looks like it's finally catching on. [...]
    Posted: February 18, 2008, 8:59pm EST
  • Not a Bubble

    Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution has gotten a lot of (mostly dissenting) attention for his argument that there was no housing bubble (hat tip: hmm, I don't even remember, but I'll cite Paul Krugman, Jane Galt Megan McArdle, and Battlepanda, among the many who have pointed [...]
    Posted: February 15, 2008, 12:27pm EST
  • Marginal Taxes on the Rich

    In response to the opening sentence of my last post, Greg Mankiw asks:
    Have you ever turned down a money-making opportunity that you would have accepted if it paid twice as much?
    I'll outsource the first part of the answer to "a student of economics," who comments on [...]
    Posted: February 12, 2008, 8:56am EST
  • Marginal Taxes on the Poor

    I've always been skeptical of the importance of the purported bad incentive effects of high marginal tax rates on high income earners. (I won't go into the details now, but I don't think the incentive effects are very strong -- at least at tax rates close to current tax rates [...]
    Posted: February 11, 2008, 4:49pm EST
  • Has expected inflation really risen?

    Several economics and finance bloggers, such as Greg Mankiw and Felix Salmon, have been pointing to an apparent increase in long-term inflation expectations in the TIPS market that Greg Ip wrote about Thursday in the Wall Street Journal’s economics blog. It would all be very worrisome to [...]
    Posted: February 03, 2008, 10:49pm EST
  • Monster Really Scares Me

    Just as I finished leaving a comment (not yet accepted as of this writing) on Paul Krugman's blog arguing that UI claims for January remain on balance in the "good news" column and that the personal consumption report is not bad news given what we already knew about retail [...]
    Posted: January 31, 2008, 12:59pm EST
  • Not Such a Weak Report

    Reading between the lines of the 4th quarter advance GDP report, I estimate that nonresidential final sales rose at about a 3% annual rate, which is about where I see the potential growth rate (and faster than the potential growth rate that the Fed sees). It thus appears that, in [...]
    Posted: January 30, 2008, 10:09am EST
  • When does monetary policy become ineffective?

    Mark Thoma* leaves a succinct comment on my previous post:
    Where we differ is the point at which monetary policy loses its effectiveness - I think that happens way before i-rates hit zero.
    It’s an interesting point, because it is a position that many economists (including Keynes himself) seem [...]
    Posted: January 29, 2008, 9:44pm EST
  • What is the purpose of a fiscal stimulus?

    In the course of thinking about my last post, I have come to a striking realization: the (primary) purpose of a fiscal stimulus is not, as commonly believed, to stimulate aggregate demand and thereby increase economic activity; the purpose is to prevent interest rates from going down.

    If [...]
    Posted: January 28, 2008, 8:20am EST
  • What is a stimulus

    At the request of fellow commenter Robert D. Feinman, I’m expanding a comment from Economist’s View into a full blog post. Apropos of Paul Krugman’s column on the fiscal stimulus plan, Robert posted a comment asking:
    What is "savings"? I understanding taking the check over to Walmart.

    If [...]
    Posted: January 27, 2008, 9:45am EST
  • The Pigou Club on YouTube

    This video was posted several months ago by Razela (i.r.l. Jamie Bernstein, but not apparently Leonard Bernstein's daughter of the same name) on YouTube, as a response to a video by Bill Richardson asking for ideas about energy.



    She also has a blog with embedded [...]
    Posted: January 26, 2008, 6:49pm EST
  • The Race Card

    There’s a popular theory now (see for example Mark Kleiman here and here) that Clinton’s strategy is in South Carolina is essentially to lose and to blame the loss on near-universal black support for Obama, thus making Obama the black candidate – the one representing black people – [...]
    Posted: January 25, 2008, 6:17pm EST
  • The Deficit is Good

    Ive said this before, but perhaps not in such bald terms. You can reasonably complain about the composition of expenditures or the composition of revenues under the fiscal policies of the last 7 years. But if you think the existence of a deficit I mean a large deficit [...]
    Posted: January 22, 2008, 3:46am EST
  • Obama and Abortion

    Im a Democrat, and as of Saturday, I am no longer leaning toward Obama; I am an Obama supporter. (Unfortunately, Ill be out of town on primary night.)

    Im also pro-abortion. Not pro-choice: Im one of those people that Hilary Clinton hasnt met, who is actually pro-abortion. (I dont [...]
    Posted: January 21, 2008, 7:06pm EST
  • Obama and the Progressives

    I'm just wondering if Senator Obama is pursuing a calculated strategy of saying things that get pundits on the left pissed at him. It probably won't help him win the nomination, but when and if he does win, it could help in the general election, and it could help even [...]
    Posted: January 19, 2008, 7:00pm EST
  • Note to Congressional Democrats

    (This means you, Senators Edwards and Clinton.)

    If Congress passes a stimulus package full of new programs and all sorts of bells and whistles and tinsel and lights and stars and angels and golden balls with glitter on them, one that President Bush is almost certain to veto, and [...]
    Posted: January 17, 2008, 11:01am EST
  • The Economics and Politics of Trade

    Paul Krugman (hat tip: Mark Thoma, as usual) says:
    Im not a protectionist. For the sake of the world as a whole, I hope that we respond to the trouble with trade not by shutting trade down, but by doing things like strengthening the social safety net. But those [...]
    Posted: December 28, 2007, 11:45am EST
  • Efficiency Wages?

    `It's only once a year, sir,' pleaded Bob, appearing from the Tank. `It shall not be repeated. I was making rather merry yesterday, sir.'

    `Now, I'll tell you what, my friend,' said Scrooge,' I am not going to stand this sort of thing any longer. And therefore,' he continued, [...]
    Posted: December 25, 2007, 4:43pm EST
  • Compulsory vs. Voluntary Voting

    Apropos of a recent post on Economists View, I was going to explain that voter turnout has nothing to do with the free rider problem and that basic economic logic suggests that smaller turnouts are better than larger ones, but Radek (a.k.a. YouNotSneaky!) beat me to it.
    [...]
    Posted: December 23, 2007, 7:11pm EST
  • Good News about US Inflation

    Everybodys getting so freaked out about the latest CPI report, and I dont understand why. The supposed bad news gargantuan increases in energy prices, substantial increases in food prices and in import prices is last months news. You could have gotten most of this information by looking at [...]
    Posted: December 15, 2007, 6:55pm EST
  • Illegal Immigration

    Michael Kinsley (hat tip: Mark Thoma) is right, and Andrew Samwick is wrong. (Well, mostly wrong. He does make an important point about fairness to people who are trying to immigrate legally.)

    Kinsley:
    Another question: Why are you so upset about this particular form of [...]
    Posted: December 09, 2007, 12:00am EST
  • Pigovian Tacks

    Conventional estimates put the appropriate level for a carbon tax (to combat global warming) at the equivalent of between 10 cents and one dollar per galoon of gasoline. I've been driving on the highway in Connecticut today, and judging by the mix and behavior of vehicles after several years of [...]
    Posted: December 07, 2007, 2:39pm EST
  • Paradoxical Responses to Fedspeak

    Throughout November, the US Treasury bond market seems to have been responding to Fedspeak by going in the opposite direction from what Fed statements would suggest about interest rates. Early in the month, when Fed officials were sounding (to my ears, anyhow) hawkish, interest rates fell. Over the past few [...]
    Posted: November 30, 2007, 10:36am EST
  • Falling Angels

    Tanta at Calculated Risk has an interesting (but very long) post about the nature of subprime lending. A central idea is that, before the recent lending boom, subprime borrowers were essentially just prime borrowers whose credit had gone sour typically people with mortgages who needed to borrow more [...]
    Posted: November 26, 2007, 6:05pm EST
  • Indirect Effects of Export Demand

    Today let us be thankful for multiplier and accelerator effects. And in any case let us at least be aware of multiplier and accelerator effects. In particular, if you want to talk about the potential role of export demand in preventing a US recession, the story you tell should mostly [...]
    Posted: November 22, 2007, 4:11pm EST
  • Exchange Rate Expectations and Interest Rates

    Since Im (unhappily) short US Treasury bonds at the moment, I should be glad so many people think that uncovered interest parity means US bond yields have to rise when investors lose confidence in the dollar. (See the comments section of this post from Brad DeLong.) But it just [...]
    Posted: November 21, 2007, 12:44pm EST
  • Is a Cheap Currency Good?

    In the comments section of my first post about the euro, reader Keith asks:
    1. Isn't it better to have a cheap currency? You get to export more and bring in more money. A cheap currency hurts if you travel outside the country, but on the other hand, you have [...]
    Posted: November 20, 2007, 4:24pm EST

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