Investment Postcards from Cape Town

• Investment Postcards – a make-over of which to be proud!

  The big moment has arrived – a new-look blog site for Investment Postcards from Cape Town! Since launching my international investment blog at the middle of last year, traffic has increased measurably, causing me to revamp the site. I hope you share my enthusiasm for this exciting project that has been [...]
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  Posted: January 29, 2008, 7:00pm EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Jan 21 - Jan 27)

  Number of comments: 10
  The past week witnessed an extraordinary set of events on the financial front, a rogue trader creating havoc at Société Générale, and wild swings on global stock markets as mounting concerns about a recessionary US economy and the implications for global growth continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This regular weekly [...]
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  Posted: January 27, 2008, 4:54am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• The year of the rat: how to invest

  Number of comments: 10
  The Chinese calendar proclaims this as the Year of the Rat. Based on the behavior of economies and financial markets over the past few months, investors would be forgiven for thinking that a plague has descended upon the financial system. But on occasion it is useful to step back from [...]
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  Posted: January 23, 2008, 2:47am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Jan 14 - 20, 2008)

  Number of comments: 10
  This regular weekly article highlights some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: January 20, 2008, 3:33am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (7 – 13 Jan, 2008)

  Number of comments: 4
  This regular weekly article highlights some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: January 13, 2008, 4:36am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• US stock market confirms primary downtrend

  Number of comments: 10
  Following yesterday's sell-off, the US stock market seems to be topping out and embarking on a primary downtrend. This view is confirmed by both the fundamental and technical pictures and calls for inordinate caution with investment strategy. [...]
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  Posted: January 09, 2008, 2:27am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Stock market an excellent predictor of US recessions

  Number of comments: 4
  An analysis of the movements of the S&P 500 Index just prior to and during a US recession, shows that the index is a leading indicator par excellence. Using the historical relationship between the stock market and economic cycle as a guide, a rough ride could be in store in [...]
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  Posted: January 08, 2008, 4:57am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Dec 31, 2007 – Jan 6, 2008)

  Number of comments: 6
  This regular weekly article highlights some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: January 06, 2008, 3:26am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2008

  Number of comments: 6
  Dead on the first day of the New Year, Byron Wien again published his annual list of surprises to expect in the coming year. His economic, market and political predictions make for interesting reading. [...]
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  Posted: January 04, 2008, 5:22am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Investment strategy: guidelines from 2007’s performance

  Number of comments: 5
  The overriding message of an analysis of last year's investment performance is the strong emphasis on defensive asset classes and sectors. There also does not seem to be any indication of 2007's primary trends reversing as we enter 2008, although some of last year's laggards may bottom out during the [...]
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  Posted: January 03, 2008, 10:17am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Gold glitters brightly at start of 2008

  Number of comments: 9
  Waving the old year goodbye with a few new records under the belt is no mean feat, but the real glitter for gold bullion is that most indicators seem to point to more good news down the line. [...]
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  Posted: January 02, 2008, 2:58am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Dec 24 – 30, 2007)

  Number of comments: 4
  This regular weekly article highlights some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: December 30, 2007, 3:34am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Investment recommendations for troubled times

  Number of comments: 10
  When an investment report by a highly-acclaimed investment strategist is entitled "Double, Double, Greed and Trouble, CDOs and Housing Bubble" it is worth a second look, especially when it comes from Donald Coxe. His latest research report, in which he summarizes specific investment recommendations for these rather difficult times, is [...]
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  Posted: December 28, 2007, 11:09am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Gold bullion – a belated Christmas gift

  Number of comments: 5
  True to form, just as traders were bargaining on a quiet Christmas period, gold again startled with a $15 jump, taking the price well clear of the $800-level. Interestingly, gold has never in its history recorded a month-end price above $800. It would seem that gold bulls may very well [...]
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  Posted: December 27, 2007, 10:25am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Season’s greetings

  Number of comments: 7
  Here’s wishing you a great festive season full of fun, laughter and joy. It has certainly been an eventful year, especially as far as financial markets were concerned. Thank you for your friendship and support in making Investment Postcards such a fulfilling experience, and here’s to a wonderful 2008. [...]
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  Posted: December 23, 2007, 6:00pm EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Dec 17 – 23, 2007)

  Number of comments: 2
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: December 23, 2007, 3:32am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Season’s greetings

  Number of comments: 7
  Here’s wishing you a great festive season full of fun, laughter and joy. It has certainly been an eventful year, especially as far as financial markets were concerned. Thank you for your friendship and support in making Investment Postcards such a fulfilling experience, and here’s to a wonderful 2008. [...]
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  Posted: December 21, 2007, 4:17pm EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• China and the Arabian Peninsula as market stabilizers

  Number of comments: 6
  Why are stock markets not tanking against the background of the sub-prime meltdown and an increasing number of "experts" calling for a US recession? One explanation for this seeming anomaly has been offered by George Friedman, CEO of Stratfor, in an article entitled "China and the Arabian Peninsula as market [...]
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  Posted: December 21, 2007, 6:18am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Japanese sub-prime woes

  The following humorous sketch ended up in my inbox a few days ago: “Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market in America and the run on Northern Rock in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan. “In the last seven days, Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up [...]
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  Posted: December 21, 2007, 5:36am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Stock markets: the end of the party?

  Number of comments: 10
  Somebody once remarked that "risk is often lowest when it is most visible". Why do I have a niggling suspicion that a considerable dose of bad news has yet to surface and therefore not yet been discounted by stock prices? These are unusually treacherous times and any rally should, in [...]
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  Posted: December 18, 2007, 11:19pm EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Dec 10 – 16, 2007)

  Number of comments: 3
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: December 16, 2007, 9:07am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Dec 3 – Dec 9, 2007)

  Number of comments: 4
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: December 09, 2007, 6:39am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2007)

  Number of comments: 10
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2007, 4:53am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (November 19 – 25, 2007)

  Number of comments: 4
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2007, 12:49am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (November 12 – 18, 2007)

  Number of comments: 4
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a few performance charts. [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2007, 1:14pm EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• The carry trade – is this it?

  Number of comments: 4
  Market sentiment did an about-turn last week as uncertainty mounted on the back of the credit situation going from bad to worse. The deteriorating outlook resulted in a reassessment of risk as evidenced by the continued appreciation of the Japanese yen as investors unwind their carry trades, triggering the liquidation [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2007, 2:16am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (November 5 – 11, 2007)

  Number of comments: 5
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a few performance charts. [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2007, 4:06am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Dow’s 361-point decline – the writing is on the wall

  Number of comments: 2
  My take of the market situation is that in order to clear out excessive leverage and over-speculation we will probably be faced with more than a routine pull-back and that further downside is in store (obviously not precluding short-term relief rallies from time to time). Although the magnitude of further [...]
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  Posted: November 08, 2007, 4:02am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Is Bernanke facing a death spiral?

  Number of comments: 10
  It is perhaps too early to conclude that Bernanke is facing a death spiral, but it would appear that he is confronted with the proverbial Hobson’s choice – inflate or die. With stocks still in overvalued territory and bonds looking equally toppish, this points to gold (although overextended in the [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2007, 6:49am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2007)

  Number of comments: 6
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2007, 3:31am EST
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Q&A: Mark Mobius on China

  Is the Chinese stock market in a bubble, or are the lofty valuations simply a reflection of the country's superior growth prospects? Who better to ask than Mark Mobius, Franklin Templeton's roving emerging markets expert. Follow the link for the full interview ... [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2007, 2:31pm EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 22 to 28, 2007)

  Number of comments: 1
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts. [...]
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  Posted: October 27, 2007, 11:30am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Does the Big R (= recession) lie in store for the US?

  Number of comments: 3
  There is no economic variable on which there is more uncertainty than on the severity and length of the downturn in the US economy. The question in short is: what are the chances of the US economy going into a recession (i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) over [...]
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  Posted: October 24, 2007, 3:54am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Where to now, Mr Dow?

  Number of comments: 1
  The realization that the fall-out of the sub-prime situation could have much more dire consequences than originally expected triggered a 367-point decline in the Dow on Friday, representing the 12th largest points decline on record. The technicals are not looking good and the situation at the coalface of the US [...]
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  Posted: October 22, 2007, 4:35am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 15 to 21, 2007)

  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts. [...]
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  Posted: October 21, 2007, 5:02am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Global stock market valuations separate the wheat from the chaff

  Number of comments: 2
  I post a global stock market performance round-up on a monthly basis. The dilemma with focusing only on historical returns, however, is that they at best represent a rear-view mirror assessment of future investment potential. A far superior approach is to combine the performance ranking tables (and price charts) with [...]
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  Posted: October 19, 2007, 10:21am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Greenspan, please shut your mouth!

  Number of comments: 1
  I have never been a fan of Easy Al Greenspan and firmly believe that he has caused the US economy irreparable damage. He retired only in January 2006, but is already doing his utmost to explain his way out of his blunders that are now a causing a financial nightmare [...]
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  Posted: October 17, 2007, 6:59am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Global stock markets: pop ‘n drop?

  Number of comments: 3
  Have global stock markets run into a cul de sac? Bulls with long and short horns alike will probably admit that the rally since August 17, 2007 (i.e. when the US Fed cut the discount window rate) was probably “too much too fast”. A “pop ‘n drop” pattern seems to [...]
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  Posted: October 16, 2007, 5:12am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 8 to 14, 2007)

  Number of comments: 3
  This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts. [...]
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  Posted: October 14, 2007, 5:42am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Fear starts gripping UK housing market

  Number of comments: 3
  As stated before, the unwinding of the US housing situation has some way to go before the system rids itself fully of all the excesses accumulated during the multi-year upswing. But what about the UK residential property market? The body of evidence points to a decidedly bearish situation beginning to [...]
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  Posted: October 12, 2007, 9:22am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• Lack of stock market breadth flashes red light

  Number of comments: 6
  What you see may not be what you get as far as the recent surge in US stocks goes. Irrespective of various stock market indices hitting new highs, the so-called market internals remain weak. This refers to the lack of market breadth and low volume being causes for concern as [...]
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  Posted: October 11, 2007, 8:35am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis

• The twelve days of crisis

  Isn’t it quite amazing how, with the right spin, even the grimmest of situations usually offer some entertainment value? The credit squeeze was no exception. Hat tip to David Fuller for pointing out this delightful poem by Tim Price of UK-based PFP Wealth Management.

  On the first day of [...]

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  Posted: October 09, 2007, 9:05am EDT
  by Prieur du Plessis