As we await the official word on November's employment situation, Joe B. tells Bloomberg the jobless rate should peak around 11%.
Meanwhile, Mark Z. discusses the jobs dilemma with NPR's On Point.
[...]
As we await the official word on November's employment situation, Joe B. tells Bloomberg the jobless rate should peak around 11%.
Meanwhile, Mark Z. discusses the jobs dilemma with NPR's On Point.
[...]
A shock by definition is unexpected, and who expected Dubai? On the other hand, given the flashy growth in that Persian Gulf entrepot in recent years, perhaps we should have seen this coming. From Sydney, Matt Robinson fills in the background:
Dubai World is the state investment holding [...]
Economists will be arguing over this for years, so we might as well get started now. Have Obama's economic policies helped? (We could detour at this point into a Clintonesque discussion of what "help" means, but let's not for now.) The issue was joined up at New York University the [...]
Nothing gets an economist's adrenalin flowing like a correlation. These folks appear to have found a juicy one, and I suspect we'll be hearing more about it soon.
Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior
...We test this hypothesis using data on police reports' [...]
It was 20 years ago today, and it's hard to recall a more optimistic moment. Germans have much to celebrate; for all the bumps and bruises, reunification was a success. And yet, some researchers have found sobering evidence that it takes more than a bulldozer to bring down [...]
With our help, BusinessWeek offers a travel guide for those seeking to launch or continue careers. Nicely illustrated, too.
The recession might be technically over, but unemployment is rising month after month even in most of the nation's strongest job markets.
A full-fledged job recovery seems to' [...]
FollowingMark Z., outlines the future of the beleaguered U.S. housing market at the client conference.
[...]
Mark Z. is giving his semi-annual presentation to clients this morning at the Penn State Great Valley center. Some of his key slides:
[...]
I wasn't going to bring this up again, but it seems to be on a lot of minds already. The most-emailed article at the WSJ's online site, in fact:
Yankees World Series Victories Boost Economic GrowthIf the Yankees win the World Series the economy [...]
As Mark Z. wrote in the New York Times the other day, small businesses could be the key to reviving job growth in the U.S. Now Mike Zielenziger reports from the field that there's hope in the air:
Rockford, an automotive and manufacturing center in northern Illinois, [...]
While Joe Brusuelas waits for Wednesday's FOMC statement, he talks to Bloomberg about the Fed's dilemma.
[...]
On today's New York Times op-ed page, Mark Z. argues that helping small business is vital to the recovery.
...Small businesses are especially vital to job growth. Establishments with fewer than 20 employees account for 25 percent of all jobs, but these same-sized companies generated 40 percent [...]
Nightly Business Report quizzes Mark Z. on the costs and benefits for taxpayers. (Player opens in new window.)
But wait, there's more: Marketplace taps Mark for a comment on the GDP estimate:
Player Goes Here
// // ]]>
[...]
The cost of health insurance is not unrelated to the industry's level of market concentration. For that matter, industry consolidation is arguably not unrelated to the amount of resistance facing healthcare reformers. Mike Helmar discusses:
In addition to extending health insurance coverage to all Americans, holding [...]
Matt Robinson explains why the kiwi dollar is becoming a carry-trade favorite in this interview with Radio New Zealand.
Earlier, Alaistair Chan explained the connection between the carry trade and New Zealand's currency here and here.
[...]
From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Makes Case Policy Is Working: Video
Aug. 21—Joseph Brusuelas, director at Moody's Economy.com, talks with Bloomberg's Margaret Brennan about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speech on the global economy and Fed policy at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in [...]
So you're American Public Media's Marketplace show, and you read in the WSJ and the NYT that there's a big mess brewing in commercial real estate. How do you follow up and add value by airtime? You call an expert:
Our friends at MSNBC are broadcasting our latest forecast, which calls an end to recession in a number of U.S. states and metros. Read all about it here, or get it straight from the source (that would be Steve Cochrane's' [...]
The housing tax credit is (a) a vital relief; (b) a wasteful distortion; (c) neither of the above. CNN sorts it out:
Congress is considering proposals to greatly expand a soon-to-expire $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers—potentially applying it to all but the wealthiest homebuyers.
Supporters say doing so would further [...]
The debate over too-big-to-fail heats up: Diana Farrell, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council (and former Dismal Scientist contributor) weighs in on the side of regulation:
We have created them [TBTF banks], and we're sort of past that point, and I think that in some sense, the genie's [...]
The following is to appear in Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer:
The Stimulus is WorkingBy Mark Zandi
The federal fiscal stimulus is working. It is no coincidence that the Great Recession has ended just when the stimulus is providing its maximum boost to the economy. The stimulus is doing what it was supposed [...]
Pushing the technological envelope again, we offer the first Dismal Scientist economic commentary you can hum along to: Marisa DiNatale took a detailed look at why metro New York City has (so far) seen fewer job losses than forecast. And of course we're partial to seasonal adjustment, so the' [...]
Credit data provided by Equifax and Moody's Economy.com is a unique tool that provides detailed information on household credit conditions. Users are able to examine, segment and stratify credit risk and economic data across states, metropolitan areas, and non-metro areas of states. Credit trend data are available for bankcards, retail [...]
"Ils n‘ont rien appris, ni rien oublié." * -- Talleyrand**
NEW YORK Oct. 6, 2009…Despite the economic recession and tumults in the stock market, The Conference Board revealed today that all major categories of institutional investors (including pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, [...]
The logic is impeccable: Boomers will work longer to make up for their busted real estate and 401k values. And boomers will retire earlier rather than compete with younger, cheaper workers in a time of rising unemployment.
Which is it? These folks take a stab at the question:
Recent dramatic [...]
The Times ran a fascinating profile the other day of the 79-year-old Chinese economist nicknamed "Market Wu." Wu Jinglian survived the Revolution, the Five-Year Plan, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, to become one of the main guides of the economic giant China has become.
You'd think' [...]
Sherman Chan gives CNBC-Asia the lowdown on China's growth numbers.
[...]“The housing crash is over in Boston,’’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. “Sales, construction, and pricing have all passed their bottoms. It’s not going to come back quickly, but it’s on the mend.’’
And a warning for D.C.: [...]
Pittsburgh is all over the media today, thanks to the outbreak of summitry there by leaders of the G-20. While we've discussed the global significance of all this, we're also mindful that what Tip O'Neill said about all politics being local also applies to economics. That's why we [...]
From the department of you-read-it-here-first. Bloomberg reports today...
The Federal Reserve has started talks with bond dealers about withdrawing the unprecedented amount of cash injected into the financial system the last two years, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Central bank officials are discussing plans to use so- called [...]
What is it that makes maps so fascinating? I'm not sure, but it certainly seems that a 30,000-foot view can help when it comes to following broad economic trends. Our Global Recession Status map has been enormously popular, drawing attention from global publications such as The Economist,' [...]
If you lay 325 economists end to end, will they reach a conclusion? Maybe on some bedrock principles (though the recent unpleasantness certainly has called into question a lot of what used to be thought of as consensus). Econ Journal Watch—a publication of the American Institute for [...]
Did the government's stimulus keep the Great Recession from becoming something worse? The arguments will go on until long after these words have turned to pixel-dust. The White House, not surprisingly, makes the case that the stimulus worked—or more specifically, had a "substantial positive impact on the growth of real gross domestic product'" [...]
Ahem. From Market Watch this morning:
The economy still faces major challenges, said Joseph Brusuelas, a top economist for Moody's Economy.com, whose team won the August Forecaster of the Month award from MarketWatch for their accurate predictions on 10 major indicators...
"Is the private sector actually" [...]
DataPoints is on hiatus; no blogging here for a while. Check back in a couple of weeks.
[...]Turnover at the top of the heap. The BBC reports:
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has replaced US retail group Wal-Mart as the world's largest company, the latest annual survey by Fortune magazine says.
There are also fewer U.S. corporations in the list of the 500 biggest firms than at [...]
For at least a decade or so, environmental types and others have been trying to make a case against GDP; blasting it as a biased gauge of national well-being that overvalues material achievement and undervalues just about everything else, from clean air to childrearing. The latest version of this appeared [...]
As the anniversary of the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy approaches, expect a flood of punditry, much of it skippable. This, however, from Ken Rogoff, seems right on point:
The overwhelming consensus in the policy community is that if only the government had bailed out Lehman, the whole thing would have [...]
The most disturbing paragraph I've read today:
Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with self-reported answers from the General Social Survey. Using time and regional' [...]
The Voice of America learns why a stable residential real estate market is essential to a broader economic recovery. (View the video in Windows Media Player):
Mark Zandi, the chief economist atMoody's Economy.com says a healthy housing market is one of the [...]
So the government has now caught up on the last five years of production and consumption data, and served it all up in a set of revisions that tell us—surprise—that the recession has been even worse than it looked on paper. Ryan Sweet reports:
The latest revisions paint a grimmer [...]
I think I know how the designer of the Campbell Soup can felt after Andy Warhol got famous. Flattered, sort of, but still ...
The Economist takes note of—and gussies up a bit—our Global Recession Status map.
I note, by the way, that some [...]
More on the improvement in consumer delinquencies. Mark Z. sends along these graphics, showing how much and where...
[...]Personally, I would regard this sort of thing as more encouraging than an uptick in spending. From the WSJ:
Fewer American households appear to be falling behind on their debt payments, according to a new study, but some economists question whether the data reflect a meaningful easing of consumer-credit problems.
"I" [...]
On July 29 at 11:30 a.m. ET, the National Science Foundation hosts a live webcast with three top economists who will answer unusual questions about the housing market that every investor should know.
The webcast, titled 'Til Mortgage Do Us Part: The Science, puts in context the' [...]
Our friends at MSNBC are highlighting our latest Recession Status survey of U.S. states and metros:
Although not a single metro area in the nation was "in recovery," 23 out of 381 showed a "moderating" recession, meaning their economies were not contracting as severely as six months earlier. The [...]
This just in. More than 175 (mostly academic) economists appear to have signed. David Wessel has the story.
Open Letter to Congress and the Executive Branch
Amidst the debate over systemic regulation, the independence of U.S. monetary policy is at risk. We urge Congress and the Executive Branch to reaffirm [...]
Sigh. I've been afraid of this. From the AARP Bulletin:
If the value of his house and his stock portfolio weren’t so shaky, Orville Teising, 67, wouldn’t be out looking for work.
Having retired after a career in sales but with a nest egg shrinking significantly, “my wife, Rochelle, and I' [...]
More stimulus? The debate continues. Here was Mark Z. on PBS' NewsHour Wednesday:
' [...]Economic forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. That isn't a statement about the ability of forecasters, but rather a statement about the complexity of the economy. If you're looking for a humbling experience, I recommend you give it a try.
That's David Altig at the Atlanta Fed's Macroblog, who notes that,within the [...]
Should Washington dip the bucket again, or is the economic pump sufficiently primed? The debate begins. From Bloomberg:
The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,” said Laura Tyson, an outside adviser to [...]
Television was developed during the Depression of the 1930s. The Internet was incubating during the late-80s financial crisis. Maybe it's a stretch, but you could make a case that the current environment is helping kick financial information graphics to a new level.
Two recent examples: The Wall Streeet Journal's latest interactive [...]
Am I the only one who sees at least symmetry, if not justice, in Bernie Madoff's prison sentence?
At his age, after all, 150 years is an entirely symbolic number—chosen not because it represents any quantitative reality, but rather to induce warm feelings of statisfaction among Madoff's former investors and' [...]
We have consensus: The lift from Washington's fiscal stimulus booster should be felt very soon now. From today's Financial Times:
The US economy will feel a substantial boost from the Obama administration’s emergency spending package over the next few months, says Christina Romer, a senior White House official, who has [...]
Why is Australia's economy leading the OECD nations? Our Matt Robinson explains it to Radio Australia:
[...]
How do you organize a meltdown? The New York Fed tries to lay out the events of the past couple years in an interactive timeline, suitable for framing on your wall.
If you're more into tables, we've got our own versions on Dismal Scientist: [...]
Who says data geeks don't know how to have fun? It's the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 125th birthday (word geeks would ask what's halfway between a centennial and a sesquicentennial, but we're talkin' numbers here, baby) and the BLS is throwing itself a party. [...]
Reader Tom Ford suggests we widen the range of views expressed here, and we're happy to accede. Herewith, a soapbox for anyone who thinks we've missed the forest for the trees, or are otherwise confused about things general or specific. Writes Tom:
I was just reading about GE saying that they [...]
With summer solstice passed, it must be time to worry about winter holiday shopping. At least it is if you're Scott Hoyt, who writes:
Six months before the holiday season, there are a number of things that could change that could have an impact on holiday spending. There is great' [...]
Mark Z. gives India's Economic Times a quick Q and A on the forecast:
"...if the recession is coming to an end by December, then what are your expectations for growth in the US economy for the next year? Is the U.S. economy likely to record GDP expansion?
In the worst housing construction cycle since the 1940s depressed demand is making it difficult for the market to work off excess vacant units. Restoring demand to more normal levels will take time since so many owners are in financial distress or trapped in homes worth less than their mortgages. [...]
You can argue all day about when the recession will end—we do—but it's indisputable that not everyone will recover at the same time. So who's on first? Our Mark McMullen says it's good to have oil, or technology:
Labor markets will likely improve first in energy- and commodity-producing states such' [...]
The Washington Post checks in for an update on housing:
With housing prices falling and mortgage interest rates rising, it's hard to say the housing market has bottomed out.
And, yet, there are some reasons for a more optimistic housing forecast, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com [...]
Whether the U.S. starts to recover in October, November, or sometime in early 2010 is a question—but maybe not the most important question in the long run. A rotten year or two is one thing: a decade or more of sub-par growth in productivity, growth and therefore opportunity is something [...]
If you'd prefer fewer words and more numbers, a new feature on Dismal Scientist is for you. Forecast Center puts all our macro, regional, industry and international tables in one convenient location, which you can access from this handy link on the home page' [...]
Matt Robinson says New Zealand's economy is weathering some rough times. Here he recaps for Bloomberg TV his recent Asia Spotlight report:
"The official prognosis for the New Zealand economy is for the recession to persist until the final quarter of 2009," [...]
My pet media peeve, in case you forgot, is the failure to distinguish between net and gross job flows. Finally, however, it looks like they're starting to get it. The N.Y. Times on Sunday published this way cool graphic:
As you can see from the' [...]
If you're worried about rising political resistance to open global trade—and if you aren't, you should be—a new internet service can help you stay on top of events. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (Europe's version of the U.S. NBER) has launched what they're calling Global Trade Alert.' [...]
For the first time in months, our interactive recession-status map shows signs of global economic recovery. We're not breaking out the champagne or planning a hip-hop version of "Happy Days Are Here Again" (although I bet some clever garage-band wiz is thinking about that).
But as Ruth Stroppiana explains' [...]
Without a more aggressive plan to reduce foreclosures, the Obama administration's recovery efforts could founder, writes Mark Z.
If something doesn't change soon, mortgage loan defaults - the first step in the foreclosure process - are on track to total an astonishing 4 million this year, representing nearly one in' [...]
In a live ABC Radio Australia interview, Sherman Chan talks about the improving ties between mainland China and Taiwan, and how it seems to be paying dividends. Notably, last week a delegation from China comprising of government and business representatives were keen to buy or invest in Taiwan. [...]
For all of the dire warnings last year about what a GM bankruptcy would do to the company, the auto industry and the wider economy, now that Chapter 11 seems around the corner the dominant sense seems one of relief. Sean Maher writes that most of the parties are [...]
Anyone who's followed U.S. banking over the last two decades knows that what some call the "regulatory framework" is actually closer to regulatory goulash, with multiple overlapping agencies and standards that have more to do with history and politics than with logic or philosophy.
Now, with the pieces of that frame [...]
In a live ABC Business Today interview in Sydney, our colleage Sherman Chan talks about the outlook for Japan and whether China plays an instrumental role in the global economic recovery. (Clicking the heading - "Has Japan's economy reached the bottom?"
[...]Elaborating on his comments to our own spring outlook conference last week, Mark Z. tells a Boston audience to set their recovery alarm clocks for late this year.
The battered economy will begin a slow upward climb after the recession bottoms out in the fourth quarter of 2009, predicted Mark [...]
Jeffrey Frankel notes, as have many others, that what makes a simple carbon (or energy) tax so attractive to economists also makes it repulsive to politicians. But is there any way around this? Maybe. Frankel writes:
Discussion of energy taxes has always been political suicide. But here are several twists [...]
Of course it will take federal government action to foster the creation of this new fiduciary society that I envision. Above all else, it must be unmistakable that government intends, and is capable of enforcing, standards of trusteeship and fiduciary duty under which money managers [...]
Live from the Moody's Economy.com Spring Outlook Conference at the Penn State / Great Valley Conference center:
Mark Zandi just said the recession will end on Oct. 9, 2009.
(Subject to revision.)
[...]Moving on is hard to do. Fox News wonders how a President McCain would be dealing with the recession.
This clearly isn’t how things turned out in November. But what if it had happened? How effective would McCain’s economic policies have been at fixing the broken economy?
...“I think the recovery [...]
Following the release of April's employment numbers, reader Tom Keithley comments:
I did not see any mention of the BLS Birth/Death adjustment in the April unemployment release. It seems that this adjustment was a huge net positive to the final estimate of job loss. Given the tendency for negative revisions' [...]
Bravely venturing into the market minefield, Mark Z. tells Forbes that stocks are pointing higher.
Forbes: The S&P is up about 30% or more since March's lows is this truly the beginning of a bull run?
Mark Zandi: Yeah, in a sense that I think if' [...]
Just like those old flip books used to turn a bunch of static images into a moving picture, you can take our monthly snapshots of U.S. local economies and construct a wave-like view of the recession's progress. Andrew Gledhill explains how:
Every month, Moody's Economy.com takes the temperature of regional [...]
Alfredo Coutino's recent diagnosis of Mexico's economic ills was picked up by a Norwegian newspaper, which illustrated it with this image of a European tourist returning home:
Sadly, it's not untypical of the misfortunes that seem to pile up for Mexico. As Alfredo put it:
"All" [...]
The NYTimes finally notices that all those horrendous job numbers are net losses; even in the depths of The Worst Since, people are getting hired. Lots of 'em... Like I was saying:
Everyone knows the grim news — unemployment in the United States has jumped to 8.5 percent, a' [...]
In Sacramento, the New York Times reports, house prices have fallen almost 50%—enough, evidently, to stimulate demand.
Investors and first-time buyers, the traditional harbingers of a housing rebound, are out in force here, competing for bargain-price foreclosures. With sales up 45 percent from last year, the vast backlog of inventory [...]
Northwestern's Robert Gordon writes on VoxEU that he sees good evidence in the initial jobless claims data for believing the U.S. downturn will hit bottom this month or next. Agree or disagree with his methodology, the fact that he's a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's recession-dating [...]
It's not often that you can trace a clear line from Capitol Hill to the real world. But Cris deRitis sees a fairly direct cause-and-effect from the Senate's recent thumbs-down on plan to allow mortgage "cramdowns" by judges in personal bankruptcy cases:
Moody's Economy.com had earlier forecast that 3.4 [...]
In case you were wondering: yes, economists do pay attention to other economists. Time Magazine lets Mark Z. size up Paul K.:
While Krugman isn't currently making policy, his imprint on it is undeniable. His cogently articulated views shape the public opinion to' [...]
Things are heating up. The WHO raised the pandemic-alert level a notch to 5, as more cases were reported in more places.
Nobody knows what this will mean to the economy, of course, but that shouldn't stop us from thinking out loud, just to keep things in perspective. Our
David Leonhardt interviews the President on how he sees the U.S. changing after the Great RecessionTM.
I'm struck by the simple novelty of hearing words such as "the nonbanking sector" emerge from the mouth of a Commander in Chief.
THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, I think that we should distinguish' [...]
