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Public Policy Polling

  • Taking suggestions on two things

    We're going to run our monthly national poll this weekend, even though it's only been three weeks since the last one.

    So I'm looking for your suggestions on two things:

    -Outside the box questions. Last month we asked about whether people thought ACORN stole the election. In the [...]
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    Posted: November 30, 2009, 2:47pm EST

  • Why Harry Reid's position may not be quite as bad as it looks

    There is no doubt Harry Reid is in a pretty precarious position for reelection next year, but his situation may not be quite as bad as recent polling suggests.

    That's because Nevada was the most poorly polled swing state in 2008 and the error all skewed in a Republican [...]
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    Posted: November 30, 2009, 1:57pm EST

  • GOP keeping up advantage with independents

    Earlier this month Republicans won the contests for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, thanks in large part to overwhelming margins of victory among independents.

    There's no indication from the polling we've done in the four weeks since the election that the trend will change in 2010. In five' [...]
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    Posted: November 30, 2009, 10:56am EST

  • Wisconsin a tossup

    The top candidates to be the next Governor of Wisconsin are relatively unknown, and that makes the race to replace Jim Doyle a tossup.

    Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are tied at 40, while Barrett leads Mark Neumann 41-39 and Tommy Thompson 46-41.

    A plurality of voters have [...]
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    Posted: November 27, 2009, 10:08am EST

  • Vote on where we poll next week

    It's time for another round of voting on where we poll. Thanks for all of your nominations. Here are your choices:

    -Delaware. Most polling this year had shown Mike Castle in the lead but last week Susquehanna came out with one showing Beau Biden on top. Is the health [...]
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    Posted: November 25, 2009, 11:46am EST

  • Undecideds in NC

    There aren't a whole lot of true undecided voters in North Carolina. 89% already have some idea which party they're going to vote for the legislature next year and 88% have a preference for Congress. In an off year election you have mostly hardcore partisan voters coming out rather than [...]
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    Posted: November 25, 2009, 11:26am EST

  • Looking at the 2010 Senate picture

    I still think the chances of Republicans regaining the Senate next year are pretty much zero but I realized today that there have now been polls showing them in the lead for ten different seats they don't currently hold, which would be good enough for a tie if they won' [...]
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    Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:45am EST

  • The Possible Palin Mistake

    Nate Silver had a good post yesterday about how Barack Obama could probably get reelected with a lower approval rating if Sarah Palin was his opponent as opposed to say Mitt Romney in 2012.

    I completely agree. I looked at our last four 2012 polls and calculated the [...]
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    Posted: November 25, 2009, 10:30am EST

  • Wisconsin Notes

    -It's a good thing for Democrats that Jim Doyle decided not to run for reelection. His approval rating is now down to 29% with 57% of voters in the state disapproving of him. When PPP looked at Doyle's standing in June his approval was 34%. As the New Jersey Governor's' [...]
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    Posted: November 25, 2009, 9:51am EST

  • Where Obama's really dropping

    When talking about the decline in Barack Obama's approval numbers the media usually focuses on independents, or whether he's losing his base. The biggest reason his numbers are going down right now though is not related to either of those things- it's because he's losing whatever small amount of bipartisan [...]
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    Posted: November 24, 2009, 3:40pm EST

  • The Romney Conundrum

    Yesterday I wrote about how Mitt Romney's overall favorability numbers with Republicans were crashing.

    Let's look at a more specific swath of the GOP electorate though- those voters who think that the party's too conservative. It's not a huge group but it's the one most likely to cross over [...]
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    Posted: November 24, 2009, 2:09pm EST

  • Obama struggling in Wisconsin

    Barack Obama is struggling in Wisconsin, with voters evenly divided on the job he's doing as President. 47% approve and 47% disapprove. He won the state 56-42 last year.

    Obama hasn't lost much support with his own party- 90% of Democrats give him good marks with only 6% disapproving.' [...]
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    Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:53am EST

  • Feingold looks solid

    When Tommy Thompson made noises last week about possibly challenging Russ Feingold for the Senate next year there was a bit of a 'here we go again' feeling in Democratic circles. The party is already having to vigorously defend a lot of its seats, and Wisconsin would have joined states [...]
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    Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:39am EST

  • Republicans and Reagan

    First Read, via Political Wire, asks why Republicans are so fixated on Ronald Reagan.

    It may be because Reagan is by far our most popular recent President. We've only done that poll in two states- Virginia and North Carolina- but I think the results would be similar' [...]
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    Posted: November 24, 2009, 9:58am EST

  • Romney's Drop

    Mitt Romney is considerably less popular with Republican voters than Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee, and that problem has become worse for him over the course of the year.

    On our monthly 2012 polls, which began in April, an average of 74% of Republicans have held a favorable opinion [...]
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    Posted: November 23, 2009, 3:26pm EST

  • Corruption in NC

    North Carolina voters don't have much trust in their politicians, regardless of party.

    45% think that the Democrats in state government are corrupt to 27% who think they are not. The Republicans aren't a whole lot better with 37% thinking they're corrupt to just 28% who believe they are' [...]
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    Posted: November 23, 2009, 2:16pm EST

  • Health Care and 2010

    The political repercussions for Congressional Democrats of not passing a health care bill could be severe. Our newest national survey finds that Democrats lead 46-38 on the generic Congressional ballot. But asked how they would vote if no health care bill is passed respondents split 40-40 between saying they would [...]
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    Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:18am EST

  • Sunday Morning Roundup

    -Does Barack Obama have a midwestern problem? 52% of voters there disapproved of him on our national poll this week, by far his worst performance in any region. A new Des Moines Register poll this morning finds him under 50 in Iowa, as did Quinnipiac in Ohio [...]
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    Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:57am EST

  • NC Democrats' Senior Problem

    A majority of voters under the age of 65 in North Carolina like the job Barack Obama's doing as President. They say they'll vote for an unnamed Democrat by a 42-41 margin over Richard Burr, plan to support Democrats by a 47-41 spread for the legislature and also plan to' [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 2:45pm EST

  • Looking back on Missouri's Governors

    Could John Ashcroft make a return to public office in the future, perhaps as a candidate for the Senate or Governor in 2012? It seems like a far fetched possibility but Missouri voters may be somewhat open to it. Ashcroft came out on top of our newest poll asking folks [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 1:59pm EST

  • Monthly 2012 Numbers

    Barack Obama's still leading all of his top potential opponents for 2012, but with his approval rating nationally below 50% for the first time his margins against a couple of them have dropped below what he won against John McCain last fall.

    For the eighth month in a row [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 10:43am EST

  • Missouri Approvals

    The second part of our Missouri poll looks at the approval ratings of the state's top politicians:

    -Jay Nixon. It's been a pretty successful first year for the state's new Governor. 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 25% disapproving. In a time when the popularity [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:28pm EST

  • ACORN

    Losing NY-23 candidate Doug Hoffman became the latest in an increasingly long line of conservative politicians to blame his problems on ACORN yesterday despite the complete lack of evidence the organization played any role in his defeat.

    The Republican base is with him though. PPP's newest national survey finds [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 12:15pm EST

  • Deep Divisions on Obama

    For our monthly look at Barack Obama's approval rating nationally we decided to have voters give him a letter grade in addition to a straight up or down vote on his performance.

    Overall Obama's 'GPA' comes out to a 2.1, somewhere between a C and a C+. That's a [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:59am EST

  • Purgason's Hope

    Chuck Purgason is a long, longggggggggggg shot for the Senate nomination in Missouri but there is one thing he has on his side: Congressional Republicans are not that popular even with the GOP base in the state. Only 44% have a favorable opinion of them with 38% seeing them unfavorably. [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:05am EST

  • Looking at NC Republicans

    There is a movement among some North Carolina Republicans to close the party's primaries to independents because they think allowing them to vote results in excessively moderate candidates being nominated. But is that claim really true?

    Independents are often thought of as being straight down the middle voters who [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:09am EST

  • Close in North Carolina

    It looks like North Carolina is headed for a pretty competitive election year in 2010.

    PPP's newest round of generic ballot polling for legislative and Congressional races in the state finds tight margins on both fronts. By a 45-44 spread voters say they plan to vote Republican for the [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:11pm EST

  • Lincoln Trouble

    Blanche Lincoln's approval rating in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, where Barack Obama had his strongest performance in the state last year, is just 27%.

    55% of voters disapprove of the job she's doing. It's predictable that 70% of Republicans give her poor marks but more surprising is that independents' [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 11:43am EST

  • Tight in Missouri

    When PPP polled the Missouri Senate race in January Robin Carnahan led by one point. Fast forward ten months and nothing has changed. Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 43-42.

    It's a good sign for Carnahan that her status hasn't worsened as things have gone sour in general for the Democratic' [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:23am EST

  • Republicans and 2012

    I was interested to see David Plouffe comment that the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee might come from outside the roster of the current top contenders. I don't know if it will or not, but I think for the GOP to win next time around it will have to be.[...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 6:43am EST

  • Missouri Preview

    The Missouri Senate race, where we'll release numbers tomorrow, is a great prism into the current political climate.

    44% of independents in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Roy Blunt to just 23% viewing him favorably. Robin Carnahan also has poor, but somewhat better, numbers with that group-' [...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 5:23am EST

  • Lincoln's Tough Position

    We'll release the second part of our Arkansas-2 poll tomorrow but here's the key finding: while 78% of Democrats in the district approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, 75% like Vic Snyder, and 61% like Mark Pryor only 43% express support for Blanche Lincoln.

    That's some pretty' [...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 5:08am EST

  • Snyder in trouble

    Last year Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate against Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in Arkansas. Now with the political climate turning in the wrong direction for Democrats nationally, and particularly in the Natural State, it looks like he may be in for the toughest fight of his career' [...]
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    Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:50pm EST

  • Perdue back up to 30

    For the first time since June Bev Perdue's approval rating is out of the 20s. 30% of North Carolinians express support for her work this month with 49% disapproving and 22% unsure.

    The positive movement for Perdue is largely a result of the Democratic base warming back up to [...]
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    Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:15pm EST

  • Some twists in Congressional favorability

    It's a commonly accepted fact that Congressional Democrats are unpopular but Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular.

    That's true but it shouldn't be taken as an indication that Democrats are going to be fine in 2010 because there's a pretty significant group of the electorate that dislikes both parties [...]
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    Posted: November 14, 2009, 1:49pm EST

  • Etheridge

    This may seem counter intuitive but the news that Bob Etheridge is not running for the Senate is good news for Democrats.

    At this point the chances of a Republican taking over his open Congressional seat are better than the chances of his beating Richard Burr would have been.
    [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 4:15pm EST

  • Looking at Arkansas-2

    We're going to be releasing polling looking at both the House race and the Senate race in Arkansas-2 next week.

    That leads to an obvious question: why AR-2?

    It's a district where there hasn't been a real strong challenge to Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in a while. But' [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 1:37pm EST

  • Obama on the rise in North Carolina

    Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina is headed in the right direction this month. An equal 47% of the state's voters approve and disapprove of his job performance after PPP's monthly surveys from August through October had found his numbers in the red.

    Obama's climb in our numbers [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 10:16am EST

  • Looking toward 2010

    I had a couple of theories about why Democratic voter turnout was so bad last week besides the party nominating bad candidates.

    One was the frustration theory: we got Congress back in 2006, we got Barack in in 2008, but things aren't changing enough. Getting out and voting for' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 4:33pm EST

  • Some good news for Dems from Civitas

    There is some good news for Democrats in the latest Civitas poll:

    -Bev Perdue's approval is now a 43/49 spread, compared to 29/63 in their previous survey. That's a 28 point gain in her net approval. Our newest round of numbers on her, which we'll release next week, also' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 3:39pm EST

  • Digging Deeper on Independents

    We all know that a big part of the Republican successes in New Jersey and Virginia last week had to do with Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's ability to win over independent voters.

    I want to go a little deeper than that though, and talk about the differences between' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 12:18pm EST

  • Same old, same old on NC-Senate

    Richard Burr's status this month is the same as it's been ever since Roy Cooper decided not to challenge him- his numbers are mediocre but he leads a bevy of little known potential challengers by double digit margins.

    Burr's approval this month comes in at 40% with 31% of' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 10:36am EST

  • GOP disunity overblown?

    I think Republican unity problems of late have been extremely overblown.

    There's no doubt NY-23 was a big old mess, and if that's replicated on a broader scale next year the GOP will have some problems. But I think that whole charade was a once in a lifetime thing.
    [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 3:26pm EST

  • Vote!

    Voting is now open for who we should include with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney on our next 2012 poll.

    The choices are Rudy Giuliani, Rush Limbaugh, George Pataki, Ron Paul, and John Thune.

    Thanks for all the good suggestions. I didn't put Jeb Bush, Newt' [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 2:15pm EST

  • Mixed messages on McCrory

    Pat McCrory is leaving office as Mayor of Charlotte with his popularity intact. But that doesn't mean voters in the city are yearning for him to run for Governor again.

    McCrory's final approval rating is 59%, with only 26% disapproving. He has the approval of 81% of Republicans and [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:51am EST

  • Some key words in the Cunningham non-candidacy letter

    Chris Cillizza suggests this morning that despite Cal Cunningham's announcement Monday night that he will not run for the Senate, he may yet be recruited into the race by Senate Democrats if Bob Etheridge is a no go.

    I don't think so. These to me were clearly the [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:33am EST

  • Some bad news for Democrats

    For the most part this year our polling has found that there aren't a lot of Obama voters straying when it comes to the 2010 races. At the same time most of our polling hasn't been of likely voters, and the generic Congressional ballot polling we did of the New [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 2:48pm EST

  • GOP controlled by conservatives everywhere

    I heard from several folks that they were surprised the Republican electorate in Maine is so dominated by conservatives. Based on our polling data this year though I doubt there is any state where an overwhelming majority of Republicans are not conservatives.

    In the 14 states where we've broken' [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 1:34pm EST

  • Taking suggestions

    Taking suggestions for two things:

    -Who should we include as the 4th Republican, along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, on our monthly 2012 poll? We'll take nominations for about the next 24 hours and then put it to a vote. This could be a minor test' [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 11:19am EST

  • Tough future for Snowe as a Republican

    It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.

    There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 10:30am EST

  • It's early but Booker looks good

    Almost every time in 2009 that we've polled on a politician for the first time and been surprised by the numbers it's been because that person is more unpopular than we expected. We are in a recession period for the popularity of politicians, and that's been par for the course.[...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 2:09pm EST

  • Some interesting health care numbers

    Is it possible that the health care issue has gotten Republicans/conservatives so fired up that they're going to be more energized to go and try to vote out Democrats next year whether a substantive bill actually passes or not?

    We put that theory to the test in New Jersey' [...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 11:58am EST

  • Vote on where we poll

    One thing I want to say up front before getting to this month's options is that I don't really believe in doing blended primary/general election polls when an election is less than a year away. It's really two entirely different electorates so to do both well you have to conduct' [...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 11:20am EST

  • Obama and 2009

    There's been a seemingly endless debate this week about whether New Jersey and Virginia were Barack Obama's fault.

    But I've found the data point that ends the argument for me.

    On April 15th Obama's national approval rating in Gallup was 63%. A Rasmussen poll that day showed Bob [...]
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    Posted: November 07, 2009, 10:10am EST

  • Moving Forward

    Now that the election's over we can poll something other than Virginia and New Jersey! Please make your suggestions on where you'd like us to poll next week in the comments and I'll pick some finalists and let you vote next week.

    The above is for statewide races, we've [...]
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    Posted: November 06, 2009, 2:11pm EST

  • Unbelievable

    I've been pretty sure the Republicans will get back control of the North Carolina legislature next year but now I'm not underestimating their chances to defeat themselves.

    Just got an e-mail from the party that they're bringing in Doug Hoffman to speak at their Hall of Fame dinner in' [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 3:53pm EST

  • Some closing thoughts on Virginia turnout

    Our early August poll in Virginia found that 60% of McCain voters and 42% of Obama voters were coming out for Governor this year. We surmised Creigh Deeds would have to get that up to 55% of Obama voters to have any chance.

    If the exit polls were [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 3:27pm EST

  • Reviewing New Jersey

    The story of what happened over the course of the New Jersey Governor's race is Chris Christie's share of the Republican vote and lead with independents plummeting...and then recovering in the end.

    On our first New Jersey poll in late June 93% of Republican said they were going to [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 2:34pm EST

  • Deeds' biggest mistake

    The biggest tactical error of the year for the 2009 elections was Creigh Deeds' over emphasis on Bob McDonnell's thesis.

    By the end of September it was clear to us that his attacks were not having a meaningful impact. Among voters who had made up their minds during that [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 11:35am EST

  • Good election for IVR

    As Taegan Goddard has already noted, last night was a good one for IVR polling.

    In New Jersey the pollster.com trend showed Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie 42-39 on live interviewer polls. On automated polls Christie led Corzine 44-41. There was never an automated poll showing Corzine in [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 11:03am EST

  • The 2009 race in North Carolina

    In the end the 2009 elections in North Carolina told us very little about 2010.

    There were good signs for Republicans:

    -Energized conservatives turned out in large numbers for the Wake County School Board races, electing all of their candidates and defeating an incumbent Democratic Raleigh City Councilman [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 10:25am EST

  • Weird Night for PPP

    There's no beating around the bush about it- our poll in NY-23 was way off the mark. I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 1:04am EST

  • NY-23 Republicans

    One of the groups of voters that's gotten the most attention this cycle is the Republicans in NY-23. Here are some of our findings about them:

    -First off they have a very dim view of Congressional Republicans- 43% view them unfavorably to just 37% having a positive opinion of [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 4:44pm EST

  • Palin has bad numbers in NY-23

    Sarah Palin's not getting elected President in 2012.

    We had plenty of data points to tell us that already but I find it fascinating that a plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her even in NY-23.

    43% view her favorably to 44% negative. This is in [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 2:00pm EST

  • Obama and today's elections

    Here's something to consider when talking about Barack Obama and the results of today's elections.

    In New Jersey only 75% of voters who approve of Obama's job performance plan to vote for Jon Corzine. And in NY-23 only 71% of people who think Obama's doing a good job plan [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 10:07am EST

  • GOP unity, support from independents key today

    We think tonight will be very good for Republicans.

    Two of the main reasons for that are superior party unity and pretty overwhelming support from independents.

    In NY-23 despite the presence more or less of two Republican candidates on the ballot, Doug Hoffman is winning 71% of [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 8:58am EST

  • Lassiter takes small lead

    John Lassiter leads Anthony Foxx 50-46 in PPP's final survey of the Charlotte Mayoral race.

    If Lassiter does indeed end up as the winner it will be his overwhelming support among white voters that made it possible. He leads 68-29 with them, up from 63-29 a week ago. Those [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 2:14pm EST

  • Chapel Hill too close to call

    The race to be Chapel Hill's next Mayor is too close to call. Matt Czajkowski leads Mark Kleinschmidt 45-44, a difference that suffice it to say is within the margin of error.

    The key finding in the poll underscoring how divided the community is headed into election day is [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 11:49am EST

  • Chapel Hill and Charlotte...

    Not going to get to Chapel Hill and Charlotte tonight. Chapel Hill should be out by noon tomorrow, we need to do some more interviews in Charlotte but we'll try to get it out by early afternoon.

    Thanks for staying up with us. Unless Democrats really have an aversion' [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 2:02am EST

  • Republicans headed for a Virginia sweep

    Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.

    In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 1:46am EST

  • Marriage still close in Maine

    Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage.

    At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

    [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 12:14am EST

  • Christie leads

    Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.

    Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 10:53pm EST

  • Hoffman leads big

    Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.

    In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 10:04pm EST

  • Tonight's Poll Schedule

    Roughly speaking:

    NY-23 around 10
    New Jersey around 11
    Maine around midnight
    Virginia around 1 AM
    Chapel Hill around 2 AM
    Charlotte around 3 AM [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 8:03pm EST

  • NY-23

    Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?

    We're getting a lot of that today.

    Two main reasons:

    -We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing.' [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 6:24pm EST

  • More NY-23 mess

    Man NY-23 is really a mess.

    Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

    -In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 3:42pm EST
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