The Oregon Economics Blog

• Eco-nomics: GDP is Growing in the East but CO2 Emissions are Growing Faster

  Number of comments: 0
  Grether and Mathys demonstrate the inconvenient truth of global CO2 emissions: the rapid growth of middle income countries in Asia (particularly China) is very carbon-intensive.
  
  
  Figure 1. Projection of the world’s polluting centre of gravity on the Earth’s surface [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Say What? More Tax Silliness

  Number of comments: 2
  Can we have a honest debate about the tax increases? In last Sunday's Oregonian, Harry Esteve quotes the general manager of Gresham Ford claiming that the company's tax bill will go from $10 to $30,000 if the tax increases are approved. Huh? This makes no sense at all. If [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Is the US the Home of Big Government?

  Number of comments: 0
  
  Well by this metric, from the OECD, our overall tax burden is low by high income country standards. So, no, we have a relatively small government.
  And yes, I just can't seem to take a break, the world is too interesting...' [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller September Numbers

  Number of comments: 0
  Okay, so I try to take a week off and something always happens, in this case the Case-Shiller September numbers. So here are two snapshots. The first is the raw data showing an ever so slight increase in the 20 city composite and in Seattle, but a every so slight [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 4:52pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Thanksgiving Break

  Number of comments: 2
  
  I will be taking the week off from blogging. Have a happy Thanksgiving and see you next week.
  If I see anything particularly interesting I will Tweet a link. Don't yet follow my Twitter feed? Click on the box in the right hand column' [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 1:05pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Thursday Tidbits

  Number of comments: 1
  Busy, busy, busy. Here are a couple of nuggets to keep the mind engaged:
  Economics: There have been discussions on this blog about whether GDP is a good metric of economic health, now Hugo Chavez wonders as well. Now that his country is experiencing negative GDP growth that is, [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 2:19pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Oregon Jobs Long-Term Forecast

  Number of comments: 1
  For what its worth...from The Oregonian:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:22pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• The Decline of Manufacturing

  Number of comments: 4
  
  From the New York Times' Economix Blog, this nice picture which shows that the US is not exceptional in the relative decline of manufacturing in employment. Why? A big part of it is that more and more often, manufacturing is happening in developing countries' [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 12:03pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Oregon October Unemployment: 11.3%

  Number of comments: 3
  Oregon's October unemployment rate was unchanged from a revised September level of 11.3%. The best news is that non-farm payroll employment dropped by only 1,900 (September's drop was 6,000). However, manufacturing and construction (along with leisure and hospitality) saw significant job losses. Professional and business services and financial activities [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 2:06pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Monday

  Number of comments: 1
  The Oregon unemployment report will be released. I will be on OPBs Morning Edition discussing the implications of high unemployment and what the Oregon experience portends for the US as a whole with Geoff Norcross (or some fragment of this - or not at all if they decide to cut [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 6:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Is Journalism a Public Good?

  Number of comments: 13
  Yes, says Leonard Downie and thus the government should subsidize newspapers.
  
  No, says Howard Gleckman, no business should be subsidized, apparently never having heard of public goods, externalities, and the like.
  
  Regardless, Gleckman may be right about papers, at least in their current form. Perhaps the [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 1:22pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Let's All Throw Mud!

  Number of comments: 2
  Well since I bothered to mention it in the first place, I suppose I should mention that Dubner and Levitt have responded publicly to Kolbert (well, at least Dubner has, but I suspect that these things are done in tandem):
  
  

  For a good recent summary of the [...]

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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 11:56am EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Rail Traffic Indicator

  Number of comments: 0
  Maybe it is because I am a nerd, but this fascinates me.
  
  Look at the collapse in rail traffic in Q4 of 2008. Wow. But 2009 has stabilized and is showing an slightly upward trend in the second half of 2009. Why do we [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 5:03pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Are All Economists Jerks?

  Number of comments: 5
  After my post yesterday on the ad-homonym attacks directed at Steve Levitt and Steve Dubner by Elizabeth Kolbert in the New Yorker, commentator Chuck reminded me of something that appeared on Greg Mankiw's blog a couple of years ago.
  It was interesting to re-read it as I have recently' [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 12:10pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Oh Ouch! Kolbert Smacks Down Levitt and Dubner and All Economists in the Process

  Number of comments: 5
  Elizabeth Kolbert in her Dubner and Levitt smackdown piece in The New Yorker throws in this haymaker:
  
  "Neither Levitt, an economist, nor Dubner, a journalist, has any training in climate science—or, for that matter, in science of any kind."
  This is in reference to the now infamous chapter [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Economist's Notebook: Is Portland Really a Safe Walking City?

  Number of comments: 2
  
  The Oregonian reports on the Transportation for American and Surface Transportation Policy Partnership's report on the safest walking cities in America. Portland was #9, but is it really a safe walking city?
  Perhaps, but the methodology is seriously flawed and clearly designed to' [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Steig Larsson

  Number of comments: 0
  Public radio's The World had a nice bit yesterday on Stieg Larsson, author of a trilogy of crime fiction novels, the first of which is called "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" in the US and apparently "Men Who Don't Like Women" in Sweden. Larsson died of a heart [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Economics: Elephants

  Number of comments: 0
  
  The New York Times reports on efforts by Zambia and Tanzania to reclassify elephants to allow the legal sale of government stockpiles of ivory. As you might expect, many conservation groups are not happy about this.
  
  This made me think of a [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 2:46pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Beeronomics: New Pubs Aplenty

  Number of comments: 0
  Friday. Beeronomics day. But I am busy and later I shall be making my own beer, so I'll farm this beeronomics post to the Portland Biz Journal.
  
  Here is a teaser:
  
  Even though it won’t open for two months, success could be on tap for Coalition Brewing.[...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 1:16pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Things are Getting Better...Slowly

  Number of comments: 2
  Despite the dismal US unemployment report, there are signs that the economy is stabilizing and even turning the corner, albeit slowly.
  In Oregon, The UO Index of Economic Indicators rose again last month suggesting that the state is, along with the US, gradually coming [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• US Unemployment Rises to 10.2%

  Number of comments: 1
  The US unemployment rate, as expected, rose to 10.2% in October. The economy lost an additional 190,000 jobs. It would not be surprising to see double digit unemployment persist until spring. [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 11:13am EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Education and Democracy

  Number of comments: 0
  From Ed Glaeser writing in The New York Times:
  
  
  
  Glaeser:
  
  One way to read the graph is that there are basically no countries with very low levels of education that have managed to be democratic over the long term, and almost every country with a [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Hooray for the Mainstream Media!

  Number of comments: 3
  I complained about a "Think Out Loud" show recently, so it behooves me to mention when I think a show is exceptional. And I think today's show on PERS was exceptional. Yes, there were advocates for and against structural changes, but there was the PERS administrator to state the' [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2009, 3:24pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Poll Results: End of the Recession and Taxes

  Number of comments: 0
  I realize that polls like this tell me more about my readers than about how the general public will vote, but I am sometime surprised at the results I get.
  My readers seem to be pessimistic as the last poll, about the end of the recession, suggests (results in [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2009, 12:01pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Economist's Notebook: Correlation and Causation, MD Version

  Number of comments: 1
  Yesterday, I caught a kittle bit of NPR's Talk of the Nation. Monday's show featured a doctor, Rahul Parkih, who who doesn't think tort reform will help keep down health care costs. Interesting, thought I and so I lingered around the radio. Then came a statement that got me' [...]
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  Posted: November 03, 2009, 4:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Eco-nomics: The Trouble with Picking the Winners

  Number of comments: 3
  Thomas Boyd/The Oregonian
  This story in The Oregonian on Sunday about how the cost of the green energy tax credits are much higher than have been presented and how millions of dollars have gone to failed companies illustrates something that I have been arguing for [...]
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  Posted: November 03, 2009, 12:00pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson

• Beeronomics: Artisanal Products and the 'Novelty Curve'

  Number of comments: 3
  Busy day today (week actually) so I'll farm this one out to Beervana blogger Jeff Alworth who has a fascinating tidbit about what Karl Ockert of Bridgeport calls the 'novelty curve.'
  
  Here is Jeff's quote from Karl:
  
  "Every beer that comes along goes" [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2009, 1:02pm EST
  by Patrick Emerson