Another brilliant piece of parody, via The Onion:
“In what is being touted by the Labor Department as extremely positive news, the nation’s available labor rate has reached double digits for the first time in 26 years, bringing the total number of potentially employable Americans to an impressive 15.7 million [...]
A few items that have caught my eye:
• Yale’s Jeffrey Garten: We must get ready for a weak-dollar world (FT)
• Why cheap oil is here to stay (CNN/Money)
• FedEx Profit Beating Forecast Signals ‘Up Arrow’ for Economy (Bloomberg)
I love information, and I especially appreciate a good depiction of information.
This ginormous graphic, from Information is Beautiful, does an excellent job conveying a lot of info in an easily digestible manner:
Global Warming Skeptics versus Scientific ConsensusMost look to loan type and equity position as two of the most important factors when forecasting loan default. In fact, I believe that epidemic negative-equity is the overarching reason that the default, foreclosure and housing crisis remains in the early innings. But…negative-equity with a caveat.
While negative equity is a [...]
Still digging out of my email from last week, I came across this:
The Outlook for 2010/11: Exciting, with Risks!
As has become the norm, at this time of the year we present our updated economic forecasts for the following year, and unveil our forecasts for the year after that. Today, we [...]
The Dow posts gains in December 71% of the time – more than any other month, reports Barrons.com’s Bob O’Brien.
Two more interesting charts related to NFP (Our earlier chart collection is here).
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The only sectors showing real growth in employment are Education, Health Care and Government employees (i.e., Census takers for 2010)
CHANGE IN TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENTDecember 2007 through October 2009
This is an intriguing forecast out of TransUnion in the FT:
“The proportion of US borrowers who have slipped behind on mortgage payments will fall in 2010 for the first time since the financial turmoil began in a sign that the nation’s housing crisis is abating, the credit bureau TransUnion [...]
I have a long list of books waiting to be read — these half dozen, however, are at the top of my list — sitting on a shelf, patiently waiting to be read — or for my next flight:
• Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different: [...]
Josh Brown penned this amusing and accurate takedown on the anti-Rally squad.
“But the volume is lower than in previous years”
You say: Its time to forget about the volumes we saw during 2006, 2007, 2008. Hedge funds and prop traders will never have access again to the amount of margin [...]
I try not to take amusement from anyone’s personal family disaster.
That said, this remix is classic:
Look, ladies, if you marry a professional athlete — especially a superstar — do not expect him to be faithful. Its that simple. Even if you are a Swedish supermodel. You are fooling yourself [...]
A reader recently lamented that I cost him $1000s of dollars each year in the many CDs, books and DVDs that mention when they catch my fancy.
OK, Mike, this one is for you: Tons of free eBooks, in the form of PDFs and Kindle format, at a relatively new site [...]
Several technical indicators are flashing mild warning signs for stocks as the market rally matures, reports Barron’s Mike Santoli.
11/30/2009
[...]I am still digging out from my trip, but this certainly caught my eye: NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear.
Two of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee members, including its chairman, now say the recession is over, even if the precise date [...]
Nice New York Timed graphic on the winners and losers of a falling greenback:
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Source:
Winners and Losers as the Dollar Falls
BILL MARSH
NYT, December 6, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/12/06/business/metrics.html
Last week’s news of a drop in the unemployment rate to ten percent is a welcome development. It was presaged by earlier strength in reliable leading employment indicators, which suggest that this improving pattern will persist next year. In November employers cut the fewest jobs since the recession began, but [...]
A Strange Old Tool . . . . Do you know what it is?
Here is a hint: It is a Washington D.C. favorite!
[...]Here is a chart that is sure to drive my pal Paul a bit batty: The Dow in Gold.
While these sort of bananas priced in herrings occasionally can provide some insight, just as often as not they are confirming an existing bias.
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DID THE BULL RUN END IN AUGUST?Today is the November Employment Situation Report.
Several factors suggest something not quite as “good” as the consensus expectations of a loss of 125k NFP. This is due to several factors: 1) The White House “leak” that unemployment will increase; b) A worse than expected ADP report; iii) Ongoing terrible Household [...]
Tomorrow is a big jobs report:
ADP data was ugly; We have not seen much implying this is going to be anything reflecting improvement in the labor market .
What is your view? Is this going to be a pleasant surprise, or is NFP gonna stink the joint up tomorrow.
What say [...]
Via Information is Beautiful, we get this amusing distraction:
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Hat tip PFSK
Interesting Bloomberg article and survey on the forecasting prowess of Wall Street’s economists. I am less convinced that trading desks rely on their own economists predictions, but take that as you will.
Here are the top 10 according to Bloomie:
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[...]I hope to God this is real:
From: Simon Edhouse
Date: Monday 16 November 2009 2.19pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Logo Design
Hello David,
I would like to catch up as I am working on a really exciting project at the moment and need a logo designed. Basically something representing peer to [...]
Is Ben Bernanke a sure thing? Not so fast, says Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Several other Senators are looking to showboat the reappointment hearings to push for auditing of the Fed or other such issues.
This raises an interesting question: Is the Fed Cheif’s reappointment a lock? Will Ben get [...]
I hate when I save a graphic, but then forget where I saw it originally — any one know where this is from?
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[...]Perhaps the better question should be, how much should you?
Watch what happens with these diamonds (no camera tricks or special effects used here…just an unbelievable optical illusion).
[...]“The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset price bubble bursts in the future.”
-Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman
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Ben Bernanke, it seems, is changing his spots. He [...]
OK, geniuses, WTF does this mean?
General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson stepped down after running the biggest U.S. automaker for eight months, and Chairman Ed Whitacre took over on an interim basis.
Are there more problems coming from GM? Is this something specific to Fritz Henderson ? [...]
I love this abbreviated collection from Doug Kass of things he is “grateful for:
• That ShopperTrak and the other retail associations are calling for strong holiday sales.
• That the National Association of Realtors is calling for a recovery in the housing market in 2010, one in which housing activity and [...]
John Hussman:
I was wrong.
Not about the implosion of the credit markets, which I urgently warned about in 2007 and early 2008. Not about the recession, which we shifted to anticipating in November 2007. Not about the plunge in the stock market, which erased the entire 2002-2007 market gain, which was [...]
Looking at the price of Gold relative to the US Monetary base, Albert Edwards of SocGen draws the conclusion that Gold is cheap:
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I have to admit that this comment from ESPN writer Tim Keown resonated with me:
“I know the whole Twitter/Facebook social-networking revolution is supposed to transform the way we communicate with each other. But for the most part it looks to me like just another way to avoid human interaction while [...]
Since we have spilled so many pixels on retail and consumer spending, let’s look at some charts as to what and how much Americans have been spending on various items.
Is this Inflationary or Deflationary ?
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Personal Consumption Price Index>
PCE without Food and EnergyLast week, I addressed an audience of fund managers and investment professionals in Berlin; Here are the highlights from my 45 minute Keynote speech:
Part one: How the actions of the Federal Reserve changed everything in 2002-2007:
Part two: Eight months after Armageddon seemed upon us, the US economy shows signs [...]
One of the items that never seems to go out of style is the annual holiday sales forecast. Mix one part survey, one part “foot traffic” analysis, and an (un)healthy dollop of optimistic trade group spin, and the result is a cheery annual forecast.
As the WSJ noted, “A postmortem of [...]
Hope you had a nice Thanksgiving weekend, with good food, family and safe travels.
I am off to a Forbes conference this week with uber Bear Gary Shilling, Steve Forbes, and others.
Normal posting, along with a few special guest posts, is expected.
[...]
The number of food stamp recipients has climbed by about 10 million over the past two years, resulting in a program that now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.
Food Stamp Usage Across the Country>
Source:
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I’m not sure I agree with very much in this NYT article, describing the current cyclical bull rally wihtin the longer secular bear market as A Rally That Needs More ‘E’.
“In the first leg of a bull market, when optimism and euphoria are ascendant, investors are willing to bet [...]
Today, the WSJ ran this patently incorrect headline (which many TV stations dutifully (mis)reported:
Black Friday Spending Rose Slightly
Preliminary sales data showed shoppers spent $10.66 billion on Black Friday. That’s 0.5% more than last year. The figures were compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago research firm that tracks sales [...]
World Science Festival 2009: Time Since Einstein, Part 1 of 5 from World Science Festival on Vimeo.
Hat tip Cosmic Variance
[...]This mornings must read work is an article in the Sunday Washington Post by none other than Ben Bernanke, titled The right reform for the Fed.
It is a rational pushback against the like of Ron Paul and Chris Dodd’s programs to either hamstring or completely get rid of the [...]
We mostly steered clear of shopping today — went instead to the Chicago Art Institute’s new Modern Wing.
In the AM, the girls did go to Nordstrom’s for shoes — the parking lot was pretty filled, but the store was not exactly jammed. (Like Bloomingdales, I will admit [...]
Fair & Balanced?
Not exactly.
Mathematically competent?
Not one tiny bit.
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Hat tip Flowing Data
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Update: Here is the Video (Nov 23)
Some looks at the Dow’s trading channels range for a slow holiday Friday:
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chart by David L. Singer at SINGER$MARKET
[...]David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, and Thomas Lee, chief US equity strategist at JPMorgan, share their outlooks on the markets and the economy.
Airtime: Tues. Nov. 24 2009 | 7:05 AM ET
[...]Two Black Friday related issues.
The first is Ethan Trex’ A Brief History of Black Friday (Mental Floss). Ethan disposes of the myth that the name reflects when Retailers “Get in the Black”:
“According to researchers, the name “Black Friday” dates back to Philadelphia in the mid-1960s. The Friday in question [...]
As noted yesterday (Look Out Below!), the sovereign debt default warning by the nation of Dubai (UAE) has caused some turmoil.
It is the excuse to send the Yen to a multi-decade highs, rally the US dollar, pressure stocks overseas, and pound the US Futures. Futures on the Standard & [...]
Fascinating stuff on the intertubes today:
• Fischer Speaking Means Bernanke Listening When Rates Fluctuate (Bloomberg)
• Are the Dollar Bears Too Bullish? (Barron’s)
• Commercial RE Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak (Globe ST)
• Amazon vs Wal-Mart Price War (NYT) see also Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, [...]
Nice interactive graphic from Russell Investments looking at the state of the economy. Russell uses 4 market and 4 economic data points:
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[...]
While many people seem to be agitating for Turbo Timmy’s dismissal, an underground drumbeat has begun calling for Summer’s head:
How can you not find some appreciation for a blog that is devoted to helping a man spend more time with his loved ones?
[...]David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, and the CNBC news team look ahead to today’s GDP data and share their economic outlooks.
Airtime: Tues. Nov. 24 2009 | 7:30 AM ET
[...]Visualizing empires decline from Pedro M Cruz on Vimeo.
Where is the spinoff of the US from Britain?
Hat tip Paul
The latest Case Shiller Index is out, and it fell 8.9% year over year, but rose a modest 0.3% for the month. The Home Price Index improved in Q3 of 2009 — its 2nd consecutive quarterly increase. Prices declined 8.9% in the quarter versus Q3 2008.
Prior Quarterly falls were worse, [...]
We have a few slots left to meet with folks next week in south Florida (Mon/Tues/Weds, December 14 -16th).
Anyone in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale who would like to sit down one-on-one with us to discuss their current and future financial circumstances investments, retirement accounts, etc. please email Joe Fitzgerald with [...]
There is a small cadre of Economists — original thinkers, contrarians, out of the box theorists — whom I respect a great deal. It is a modest list ranging from Richard Thaler to David Rosenberg to Robert Shiller, with lots of smart econ wonks in between.
This morning, [...]
Sometime later this week, you will come to the realization that you are either travelling to or hosting a *Thanksgiving dinner. As these tend to be large family affairs, there may be some tensions, arguments and other social problems.
My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.
I suggest lubricating [...]
“Our conclusion is that if small firms aren’t captured well in the advance GDP data, the economy may be growing less quickly than suggested by the recent official data.”
-Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist
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This certainly comes as no surprise to us:
“The U.S. government is having a tough time guesstimating how many [...]
Whenever I travel, I like to do a full economic assessment of the locale, a post-trip post-mortem. Oftentimes, it is not worth writing up, but Berlin was fascinating enough to jot some thoughts down.
Quite a few things were memorable from this trip. (I’ll post some photos later below)
Berlin is a [...]
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Some good learnin’ here:
This web site stems from a personal interest in critical thinking and is a collection of links to articles and sites pertaining to numeracy and critical thinking. Links should be good for at least the date posted. After the posting date, link reliability [...]
The WSJ’s Greg Zuckerman has a new book out titled, The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History.
Here is an excerpt from his recent WSJ column on lessons on the subject:
1 Don’t Rely on [...]The Quote of the Day comes to us via Bloomberg’s Alice Schroeder:
“We’re in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like Cash for Clunkers. Consumers are done with borrowing. They’ll keep refueling the deflation by going through their attics and [...]
There are so many thing here that require an ass whupping I just don’t know where to begin:
• Why is there even such a thing as a Microsoft Store?
• Is this an example of their innovation?
• Why is the staff being forced to clap rhythmically — did they [...]
1. Most Blues begin, “Woke up this morning.”
2. “I got a good woman” is a bad way to begin the Blues, ‘less you stick something nasty in the next line, like “I got a good woman, with the meanest face in town.”
3. The Blues is simple. After you get the [...]
Compared to historical norms, Nasdaq market capitalization is significantly above median levels relative to GDP.
The Nasdaq’s median percentage of GDP has averaged 61.8%; its now over 100%. As the chart below shows, the big aberrational periods have been due Fed bubble inflation: first in 1998-2000; then more recently in 2006-07. [...]
Phil Gramm, the former Republican Senator from Texas who co-wrote the act that undid Glass-Steagall, has our DQotD:
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“I’ve never seen any evidence to substantiate any claim that this current financial crisis had anything to do with Gramm-Leach-Bliley. In fact, you couldn’t have had the assisted takeovers you had. More institutions [...]
Why aren’t we listening more to this font of common sense and logic?
“A proposal to give banking regulators authority to block accounting standards is “a terrible idea,” Paul A. Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said Monday.
Mr. Volcker has been an outspoken critic of “mark to market” [...]
Interesting stuff:
• China’s Blunt Talk for Obama (WSJ)
• China vs United States by the Numbers (NYT)
• Riding on China’s coat-tails (Business Spectator)
• Hong Kong to U.S: Please Don’t Blow our Bubbles (Real Time Economics)
• The Tokyo Hot List: 20 people to watch (Tokyo)
here’s another cool interactive map, via the Detroit News:
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click for ginormous graphic
This is one of the things I will be discussing at the Berlin Conference:
Comparing the 1982 Bull Market with the 2009 Rally>
Rally Comparison 1982 2009 P/E Multiple 8X 26X Dividend Yields 6% below 2% Book Value Discount to Book 2X Premium Monetary Policy Reducing money growth and inflation rates Creating money growth and inflation rates Fiscal Policy Aimed [...]President Obama visits China at a time when the world’s two most powerful economies face very different fortunes.
A humbled United States is slowly recovering after sparking the global financial crisis. China, on the other hand, has handled the downturn with ease and appears to be leading the world out of [...]
I’m off to give my presentation, but before I go, here is a quick chart on Single Family Housing Starts, which disappointed:
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New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (NSA)click for bigger chart
Source: Census Bureau
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Thanks, RM!
[...]
While everyone remains focused on Gold, I suggest checking out other Precious metals.
Over the past year, Palladium, Platinum and Silver have been kicking Gold’s shiny yellow ass!
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Chart courtesy of Ron Griess of The Chart Store.
I meant to get to this yesterday, but travel plans got in the way:
Those regular Sarbox bashers forget that it is all about keeping management honest when it comes to accounting.
The penalties for restated earnings is that management forfeits bonuses and stock options during the period in question.
That is precisely [...]
Unfriend was the New Oxford American Dictionary Word of the Year for 2009.
Check out the list of runners up below:
Technology
hashtag – a # [hash] sign added to a word or phrase that enables Twitter users to search for tweets (postings on the Twitter site) that contain [...]
I post this to NOT make any political statement whatsoever — George Bush’s face can be superimposed on Obama’s and the cartoon will still have the same impact.
Rather, it highlights that relying on foreigners to finance half of our debts can last without consequence until it doesn’t. It also highlights [...]
At the Kellogg Distinguished Lecture Series, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
November 16, 2009
I titled my talk “Policy Challenges for the Federal Reserve.” I did that before I knew what I was going to discuss, because just [...]
Some interesting reads:
• Recovery Can Only Go So Far Without Jobs (Market Talk)
• Paul Farrell: Wall Street’s 2012 meltdown sweepstakes (Marketwatch)
• Lessons from the crisis: Re-educate the geeks (Reuters) British quant seeks to reform financial risk-takers
Nice infoporn via Mint, showing the breakdown by income level. To put this into context, as of 2007, the median annual household income rose 1.3% to $50,233.00 according to the Census Bureau.
David Rosenberg asks the question: Is Gold a bubble?
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Gold Prices Relative to the S&P 500 (ratio)>
I am not sure the above chart is determinative, but it sure is interesting . . .
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