A Strange Old Tool . . . . Do you know what it is?
Here is a hint: It is a Washington D.C. favorite!
[...]A Strange Old Tool . . . . Do you know what it is?
Here is a hint: It is a Washington D.C. favorite!
[...]Here is a chart that is sure to drive my pal Paul a bit batty: The Dow in Gold.
While these sort of bananas priced in herrings occasionally can provide some insight, just as often as not they are confirming an existing bias.
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DID THE BULL RUN END IN AUGUST?12/3/2009
We have been watching AIG after it fell below its recent support (red lines on the attached chart) around $32.75…Now after almost a week of trying, and failing to move above (failing on higher volume) we now see AIG moving lower. Our first trading target would be low [...]
If today’s payroll # is the beginning of a US$ counter trend rally, one thing we’ll be for certain, we’ll get a really good idea of the size of the US$ carry trade that has been so talked about.
[...]The fed funds futures has somewhat shifted its rate hike odds in response to the big upside surprise to Nov payrolls. By the June meeting there is now a 66% chance of a 25 bps rate hike up from 34% yesterday. There is now a 100% chance of a 25 [...]
The Nov Payrolls fell only 11k, much better than expectations of a fall of 125k and the prior two months were revised up by 159k. The household survey rose by 227k after a decline of 589k in Oct and combined with a drop in the labor force sent the unemployment [...]
Funny stuff — or is it tragicomedy? – from blogger John Galt…
“The Elves of the Great Depression of 2009″ (via YouTube):
Source:
The Elves of the Great Depression of 2009
John Galt
Shenandoah, Dec. 4, 2009
http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/12/04/a-musical-tribute-the-elves-of-the-great-depression-of-2009/
Today is the November Employment Situation Report.
Several factors suggest something not quite as “good” as the consensus expectations of a loss of 125k NFP. This is due to several factors: 1) The White House “leak” that unemployment will increase; b) A worse than expected ADP report; iii) Ongoing terrible Household [...]
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A worse-than-expected ADP Employment Change for November (-169k vs. -150k exp) chilled traders’ appetite for stocks. But gold is a different animal, and it’s in a parabolic rise.
Bad news is really good news for gold because it means ‘more juice’.
Several weeks ago, we noted that gold was [...]
In Tim Iacono’s earlier post regarding Sen Jim Bunning’s less-than-flattering remarks about Ben Bernanke, he noted the groundswell of public opinion against the current Fed Chairman.
In fact, Rasmussen Reports has announced the results of its latest national telephone survey, and it reveals that 38% of adults regard Bernanke unfavorably, while only [...]
Tomorrow is a big jobs report:
ADP data was ugly; We have not seen much implying this is going to be anything reflecting improvement in the labor market .
What is your view? Is this going to be a pleasant surprise, or is NFP gonna stink the joint up tomorrow.
What say [...]
Via Information is Beautiful, we get this amusing distraction:
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Hat tip PFSK
With a groundswell of public opinion against the Federal Reserve in general and Ben Bernanke in particular, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) takes something of a victory lap for having been the only committee member to oppose Bernanke’s nomination four years ago.
Bunning’s prepared statement at today’s confirmation hearing from his [...]
Interview of Eisenbeis and Kotok by Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics
December 2, 2009
Liquidity vs. Solvency: Interview with Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok
Interview released on November 30, 2009, for the direct link use: http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp.
“Mr. Chairman, we have in this Country one of the most corrupt institutions the world [...]
Interesting Bloomberg article and survey on the forecasting prowess of Wall Street’s economists. I am less convinced that trading desks rely on their own economists predictions, but take that as you will.
Here are the top 10 according to Bloomie:
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[...]I hope to God this is real:
From: Simon Edhouse
Date: Monday 16 November 2009 2.19pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Logo Design
Hello David,
I would like to catch up as I am working on a really exciting project at the moment and need a logo designed. Basically something representing peer to [...]
Is Ben Bernanke a sure thing? Not so fast, says Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Several other Senators are looking to showboat the reappointment hearings to push for auditing of the Fed or other such issues.
This raises an interesting question: Is the Fed Cheif’s reappointment a lock? Will Ben get [...]
Given the spotlight that’s been shown on gold lately, some might naturally view it as the best investment to buy after a crisis strikes.
However, based on the following chart, some might argue that emerging equity markets are the true safe haven.
I guess we’ll just have to see what [...]
A lot of people are getting all worked up about the rising price of gold. Some say the current move has gone “parabolic” and that we’re in the midst of a “blow-off top” akin to the early 1980s peak that saw the gold price disappoint investors for years afterward.
Just this [...]
What is the greatest deception in the history of finance? Depending upon your perspective, some entities and events of deception that come to mind might include corporate accounting scandals, rogue traders, Ponzi schemes, and various entities and events related to the financial crises (market bubbles) throughout history.
“The greatest hazard of [...]
I hate when I save a graphic, but then forget where I saw it originally — any one know where this is from?
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[...]Perhaps the better question should be, how much should you?
Watch what happens with these diamonds (no camera tricks or special effects used here…just an unbelievable optical illusion).
[...]
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Investment Newsletter – November 24, 2009
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! I hope you are surrounded by family and friends on Thanksgiving. We have much to be thankful for.
The Real Elephant in the Room
Throughout history, there have been a numerous investment manias, covering a wide range of ‘investments’. One of [...]
A Chinese-American named Won Park has found the answer.
View the pictures below and you will understand what is meant. The technique applied is called Origami and is the traditional Japanese art of paper folding. The objective of this art is to create an image of an object using geometric [...]
“The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset price bubble bursts in the future.”
-Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman
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Ben Bernanke, it seems, is changing his spots. He [...]
OK, geniuses, WTF does this mean?
General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson stepped down after running the biggest U.S. automaker for eight months, and Chairman Ed Whitacre took over on an interim basis.
Are there more problems coming from GM? Is this something specific to Fritz Henderson ? [...]
Each Tuesday, ABC News reports its weekly Consumer Confidence Index, which gauges confidence in the state of the U.S. economy.
Not surprisingly, the CCI tends to track moves in other well known sentiment measures, including the Reuters/University of Michigan and Conference Board indexes, both of which are reported monthly.
However, the ABC [...]
I love this abbreviated collection from Doug Kass of things he is “grateful for:
• That ShopperTrak and the other retail associations are calling for strong holiday sales.
• That the National Association of Realtors is calling for a recovery in the housing market in 2010, one in which housing activity and [...]
It’s hard to believe any of the economic data that comes out of China these days, but that doesn’t stop the Chinese government from supplying even more.
While analysts try to estimate just how much copper wire is stored on pig farms and then seek to explain how a 38 percent [...]
The best way to describe Fed actions over the past few years is that of an asymmetrical policy. Slash rates when the economy was faltering and the financial system was facing extraordinary stress and keep them at zero even after the emergency has passed and the economy has stabilized, however [...]
John Hussman:
I was wrong.
Not about the implosion of the credit markets, which I urgently warned about in 2007 and early 2008. Not about the recession, which we shifted to anticipating in November 2007. Not about the plunge in the stock market, which erased the entire 2002-2007 market gain, which was [...]
Oct Pending Home Sales rose 3.7% m/o/m vs an expected fall of 1%. Gains were led by a 19.9% jump in the Northeast, an 11.6% rise in the Midwest and a 5.4% lift in the South. The West saw contract signings down 11.2%. The overall y/o/y gain is 28.6% as [...]
Long time Outside of the Box readers are familiar with John Hussman of the eponymous Hussman Funds. And once again he is my selection for this week’s OTB.
This week he touches on several topics, all of which I find interesting. As he notes:
“We face two possible states of the world. [...]
Looking at the price of Gold relative to the US Monetary base, Albert Edwards of SocGen draws the conclusion that Gold is cheap:
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If Dubai World can achieve success in its debt discussions (defined as pushing out its maturity schedule), amend and extend is the official global bank strategy in dealing with over leveraged situations as buying time to a better economic environment is the preferred path as opposed to debt writedowns and [...]
Today’s “Must Read” assignment:
A working paper by professors Carmen Reinhart (University of Maryland) and Ken Rogoff (Harvard) called “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” (below) advises that major default episodes are typically spaced some years (or decades) apart, creating an illusion that ‘this [...]
One of the striking things about about the deficit crisis that seems to loom over the United States is the probability that it will force a massive change in American expectations. In Newsweek this week Niall Ferguson beats the deficit drum. His fear is that US will have to [...]
Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter appears to have a rather vocal critic in Fabrice Taylor at The Globe and Mail, this item appearing earlier today casting a dim view on all things Gartman, the lone exception being a style that is almost always engaging and entertaining.
Gartman fund needs [...]
I have to admit that this comment from ESPN writer Tim Keown resonated with me:
“I know the whole Twitter/Facebook social-networking revolution is supposed to transform the way we communicate with each other. But for the most part it looks to me like just another way to avoid human interaction while [...]
Well, apparently there is at least one thing that former Vice President Dick Cheney and Nobel Prize winning economist (and unofficial White House adviser) Paul Krugman have in common. They both feel the same way about deficits – they don’t matter.
Bob Eisenbeis is Cumberland’s Chief Monetary Economist. Prior to joining Cumberland Advisors he was the Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Bob is presently a member of the U.S. Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee and the Financial Economist Roundtable (bio here). He [...]
The Nov Chicago PMI was a better than expected 56.1 up from 54.2 in Oct and vs the forecast of 53. It’s the highest since Dec ‘07 and measures the direction of change, not the degree. New Orders rose to 62.8 from 61.4 to the highest since May ‘07 and [...]
Since we have spilled so many pixels on retail and consumer spending, let’s look at some charts as to what and how much Americans have been spending on various items.
Is this Inflationary or Deflationary ?
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Personal Consumption Price Index>
PCE without Food and EnergyForeign Policy has just published a list of its “top 100 global thinkers” and the winner is…
1. Ben Bernanke
for staving off a new Great Depression.
Chairman, Federal Reserve | Washington
The Zen-like chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve might not have topped the list solely for turning his superb academic career into a blueprint [...]
Last week, I addressed an audience of fund managers and investment professionals in Berlin; Here are the highlights from my 45 minute Keynote speech:
Part one: How the actions of the Federal Reserve changed everything in 2002-2007:
Part two: Eight months after Armageddon seemed upon us, the US economy shows signs [...]
On the twelfth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Twelve drummers drumming,
Eleven pipers piping,
Ten lords a-leaping,
Nine ladies dancing,
Eight maids a-milking,
Seven swans a-swimming,
Six geese a-laying,
Five golden rings,
Four calling birds,
Three French hens,
Two turtle doves,
And a partridge in a [...]
The UAE over the weekend provided a partial ‘Bridge Over Troubled Waters’ to those impacted by the Dubai request for a debt restructuring by giving assurances to local banks that have exposure to Dubai but they did not give any commentary on what they will do directly with Dubai and [...]
One of the items that never seems to go out of style is the annual holiday sales forecast. Mix one part survey, one part “foot traffic” analysis, and an (un)healthy dollop of optimistic trade group spin, and the result is a cheery annual forecast.
As the WSJ noted, “A postmortem of [...]
Peter T Treadway also serves as Chief Economist, CT RISKS, Hong Kong.
THE DISMAL OPTIMIST
November 29, 2009
The Global Liquidity Bubble Claims Another VictimAs this letter goes out the world is scrambling to find out which banks and which countries are most exposed to Dubai and Dubai World, which has now announced [...]
The good news, according to the National Retail Federation, is that 195 million U.S. shoppers visited stores and websites this past weekend, an impressive 13% jump over last year.
The bad news: average spending fell nearly 8% to $343.31 per person, the lowest level in four years, while overall [...]
Hope you had a nice Thanksgiving weekend, with good food, family and safe travels.
I am off to a Forbes conference this week with uber Bear Gary Shilling, Steve Forbes, and others.
Normal posting, along with a few special guest posts, is expected.
[...]The Boston Globe’s Beth Healy writes what looks like another Lawrence Summers bashing Harvard Endowment story–with an extra helping of unnamed Robert Rubin-kicking on the side–when she reveals that Summer fought with Harvard Endowment head Jack Meyers over his decision to add the University’s operating cash account to the [...]
The number of food stamp recipients has climbed by about 10 million over the past two years, resulting in a program that now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.
Food Stamp Usage Across the Country>
Source:
[...]
As shoppers were emptying their purses on Black Friday bargains, Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt roiled financial markets, plunging risky assets into the red. The government of Dubai requested a six-month payment freeze on the $59 billion debt issued by Dubai World – a state-owned conglomerate that has become [...]
Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 23–29, 2009)
As shoppers were emptying their purses on Black Friday bargains, Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt roiled financial markets, plunging risky assets into the red. The government of Dubai requested a six-month payment freeze on the $59 [...]
I’m not sure I agree with very much in this NYT article, describing the current cyclical bull rally wihtin the longer secular bear market as A Rally That Needs More ‘E’.
“In the first leg of a bull market, when optimism and euphoria are ascendant, investors are willing to bet [...]
Today, the WSJ ran this patently incorrect headline (which many TV stations dutifully (mis)reported:
Black Friday Spending Rose Slightly
Preliminary sales data showed shoppers spent $10.66 billion on Black Friday. That’s 0.5% more than last year. The figures were compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago research firm that tracks sales [...]
November 28, 2009
By John Mauldin
Subprime Dubai
I admit that of late my writings have had a rather dark tone. There are certainly a number of [...]
World Science Festival 2009: Time Since Einstein, Part 1 of 5 from World Science Festival on Vimeo.
Hat tip Cosmic Variance
[...]This mornings must read work is an article in the Sunday Washington Post by none other than Ben Bernanke, titled The right reform for the Fed.
It is a rational pushback against the like of Ron Paul and Chris Dodd’s programs to either hamstring or completely get rid of the [...]
Comment
As the first chart shows, Dubai’s sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) are soaring in the wake of the news that Dubai World wants a standstill agreement on roughly $60 billion of debt. Even though Dubai World is a corporation [...]
Our friend and comrade Mark Pittman of Bloomberg News died unexpectedly on Wednesday. The link to the Bloomberg story is below. Mark was a great reporter and a great friend. He prized accuracy over timeliness at a time when many people in the media don’t know the difference. He led [...]
We mostly steered clear of shopping today — went instead to the Chicago Art Institute’s new Modern Wing.
In the AM, the girls did go to Nordstrom’s for shoes — the parking lot was pretty filled, but the store was not exactly jammed. (Like Bloomingdales, I will admit [...]
Fair & Balanced?
Not exactly.
Mathematically competent?
Not one tiny bit.
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Hat tip Flowing Data
~~~
Update: Here is the Video (Nov 23)
As technicians don’t care about fundamentals, according to them, in light of the Wednesday morning news from Dubai that so shocked markets on Thursday, we can look at the charts to see at what levels the buyers and sellers acted today. The 50 day moving average in the S&P futures [...]
Some looks at the Dow’s trading channels range for a slow holiday Friday:
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chart by David L. Singer at SINGER$MARKET
[...]David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, and Thomas Lee, chief US equity strategist at JPMorgan, share their outlooks on the markets and the economy.
Airtime: Tues. Nov. 24 2009 | 7:05 AM ET
[...]The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index may have improved (48.7 in October to 49.5 in November) and beaten consensus expectations, but it remains firmly in recession terrain. It is so obvious that consumers are tired of the over-borrowing and over-spending days of yesteryear. Despite all the temptations provided by the [...]
Two Black Friday related issues.
The first is Ethan Trex’ A Brief History of Black Friday (Mental Floss). Ethan disposes of the myth that the name reflects when Retailers “Get in the Black”:
“According to researchers, the name “Black Friday” dates back to Philadelphia in the mid-1960s. The Friday in question [...]
Well, there goes that quiet half day right after Thanksgiving. The Dubai request for a standstill agreement as a precursor for a hoped for debt restructuring is not a complete surprise considering the weekly newspaper articles on their $80b+ debt overhang. What is the surprise is the lack of any [...]
As noted yesterday (Look Out Below!), the sovereign debt default warning by the nation of Dubai (UAE) has caused some turmoil.
It is the excuse to send the Yen to a multi-decade highs, rally the US dollar, pressure stocks overseas, and pound the US Futures. Futures on the Standard & [...]
Fascinating stuff on the intertubes today:
• Fischer Speaking Means Bernanke Listening When Rates Fluctuate (Bloomberg)
• Are the Dollar Bears Too Bullish? (Barron’s)
• Commercial RE Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak (Globe ST)
• Amazon vs Wal-Mart Price War (NYT) see also Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, [...]
Today’s rally in MBS has taken the 30 yr FNMA coupon to below 4% at 3.98%, for the first time since May 20th. Combining the treasury rally with continued purchases by the Federal Reserve (where Bullard wants to extend past the expected expiration in March) and likely end of yr [...]
The record 5 yr $42b auction was excellent as the yield was 3-4 bps below the when issued and the bid to cover at 2.81 was the best since Sept ‘07 and well above the average seen this year of 2.28. Indirect bidders totaled a solid 60.9%, above the average [...]
Nice interactive graphic from Russell Investments looking at the state of the economy. Russell uses 4 market and 4 economic data points:
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[...]
While many people seem to be agitating for Turbo Timmy’s dismissal, an underground drumbeat has begun calling for Summer’s head:
How can you not find some appreciation for a blog that is devoted to helping a man spend more time with his loved ones?
[...]David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, and the CNBC news team look ahead to today’s GDP data and share their economic outlooks.
Airtime: Tues. Nov. 24 2009 | 7:30 AM ET
[...]Visualizing empires decline from Pedro M Cruz on Vimeo.
Where is the spinoff of the US from Britain?
Hat tip Paul
The latest Case Shiller Index is out, and it fell 8.9% year over year, but rose a modest 0.3% for the month. The Home Price Index improved in Q3 of 2009 — its 2nd consecutive quarterly increase. Prices declined 8.9% in the quarter versus Q3 2008.
Prior Quarterly falls were worse, [...]
Nov Confidence was 49.5 up from 48.7 in Oct and above estimates of 47.3 but still remains below the high this year of 54.8 in May. The rise was all on the Expectations side which rose 1.5 pts. Present Situation was down .1 to the lowest level since ‘83. Those [...]
In 2 weeks, we will be in south Florida (the week of December 14 -16th).
We will be meeting with current and future clients. Anyone in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale who would like to sit down one-on-one with us to discuss their investments, retirement accounts, etc. please email Joe Fitzgerald with [...]
(CCN Englewood Cliffs NJ)
With The Dow at new highs of 10440, CNBC¹s resident revisionist historian Jim Cramer encouraged what remains of his audience To “Buy! Buy! Buy!” recommending the purchase of Williams Sonoma (WSM $22) who sells over-priced culinary gadgets that few actually need. “People LOVE overpaying for things!” [...]
There is a small cadre of Economists — original thinkers, contrarians, out of the box theorists — whom I respect a great deal. It is a modest list ranging from Richard Thaler to David Rosenberg to Robert Shiller, with lots of smart econ wonks in between.
This morning, [...]
Sometime later this week, you will come to the realization that you are either travelling to or hosting a *Thanksgiving dinner. As these tend to be large family affairs, there may be some tensions, arguments and other social problems.
My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.
I suggest lubricating [...]
Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 16 – 22, 2009)
Stock markets succumbed to a bout of profit-taking last week, sparked by concerns that the rally has overshot the pace of economic recovery. Riskier assets were showing signs of fatigue as the US dollar – [...]
“Our conclusion is that if small firms aren’t captured well in the advance GDP data, the economy may be growing less quickly than suggested by the recent official data.”
-Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist
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This certainly comes as no surprise to us:
“The U.S. government is having a tough time guesstimating how many [...]
Whenever I travel, I like to do a full economic assessment of the locale, a post-trip post-mortem. Oftentimes, it is not worth writing up, but Berlin was fascinating enough to jot some thoughts down.
Quite a few things were memorable from this trip. (I’ll post some photos later below)
Berlin is a [...]
Peter Boockvar, Barry Ritholtz, David Kotok, Prieur du Plessis, John Mauldin, Guest Author, Jim Welsh, Marion Maneker, Chris Whalen, Bill King, James Bianco, David Rosenberg, Kent Thune, Josh Rosner, Michael Panzner, Rick Ambrose, Tim Iacono
[...]
