Land of Black Gold

• Not to put too fine a point on it..

  Re: my last point about there being enough natural gas to help mitigate the most serious impacts from oil peaking. There are issues with this (see bottom), but I'm confident we won't be suffering a "die off", to quote one of the more extreme peak oil sites.
  
  BP [...]
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  Posted: October 11, 2009, 9:05am EDT
  by mh497

• Dr Strangelove, or How I learned to stop worrying and love peak oil.

  Number of comments: 0
  Okay, I'm totally kidding. Peak oil is a serious problem, and one that I believe looms in front of us in the near future.
  
  However, through a combination of conservation, lifestyle adjustments, and the increased use of alternatives, I think humanity will figure out a way to cope with' [...]
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  Posted: August 02, 2009, 7:58pm EDT
  by mh497

• Charles Nenner says long term cycle bottoms soon.

  Number of comments: 21
  CNBC: Nenner Cycle Signals Entry Point.
  
  You must also watch the Bloomberg video at his site to understand his full picture though.
  
  See top video link here:
  
  http://www.charlesnenner.com [...]
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  Posted: February 04, 2009, 8:22am EST
  

• Charles Nenner on Deflation, Commodity Stocks, and THE Market Bottom.

  Number of comments: 5
  Bloomberg: Charles Nenner Sees Opportunity in Commodity Stocks: Video.
  
  Note: To view the video, click on the link towards the right side, under the heading "Related Video and Graphics". [...]
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  Posted: October 31, 2008, 6:04am EDT
  

• Fear and Loathing in Closed End Funds.

  Number of comments: 0
  Closed end funds are like ETFs (exchange traded funds) in that they are traded on an exchange like stocks, and are made up of a bundle of other securities. Closed ends funds are unlike ETFs in that ETF shares are created and de-created (for lack of a better term) each [...]
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  Posted: October 26, 2008, 8:22am EDT
  by mh497

• The Panic of 2008 bottoms on Oct 14-15?

  Number of comments: 0
  I see that Barry Ritholtz has come up with the moniker of "The Great Financial Crisis of 2008", but I personally like "The Panic of 2008" a bit better.
  
  While there are certainly legitimate roots for some of the selling, it is now extending well beyond that [...]
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  Posted: October 06, 2008, 12:48pm EDT
  

• When good (lefty) papers go bad.

  Number of comments: 1
  When the New York Times starts bringing up the possibility of global cooling, you know it's about to get interesting. Note the oblique reference to global cooling, "would more than offset the warming effect".
  
  New York Times: Sunspots Are Fewest Since 1954, but Significance Is Unclear.
  
  Quotes:[...]
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  Posted: October 03, 2008, 8:19am EDT
  

• Warren Buffett invests in Chinese electric car maker.

  Number of comments: 2
  $230 million is sort of chump change for Warren Buffett, but it's interesting nonetheless. He also recently bought Constellation Energy Group, a US electric provider that got itself in a bit of a financial crunch.
  
  MarketWatch: Buffett powers into electric cars, buying 10% of BYD.
  
  Quotes:[...]
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  Posted: September 28, 2008, 7:41am EDT
  by mh497

• Warren Buffett: Thespian

  Number of comments: 0
  Just as things are getting shaky again, and on a day that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox endure the slings and arrows (not to mention helpful guidance) of the Senate Banking Committee [Thank you Founding Fathers for ensuring the separation of [...]
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  Posted: September 23, 2008, 10:23pm EDT
  

• Videos of the Week.

  Number of comments: 0
  CNBC: S&P Head on Downgrades.
  
  Alternative title: Dylan Ratigan Goes Postal!
  
  Dylan Ratigan lets a guy from ratings company Standard & Poor's have it in this first video, and justifiably so. The ratings agencies overrated (**way** overrated, judging by the crisis) debt instruments, and then, in a' [...]
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  Posted: September 20, 2008, 3:38pm EDT
  

• The global cooling debate.

  Number of comments: 2
  Daily Tech: Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century.
  
  Quote:
  
  The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
  
  Delta Farm Press: Global cooling [...]
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  Posted: September 02, 2008, 9:16am EDT
  

• Buffett: Oil Sands Visit for Info Only.

  Number of comments: 0
  Warren Buffett is nothing if not a disciplined investor, and he explains that his visit to the Alberta region was for information gathering only, something that he will file away and may use a few years from now. As he explains near the end of the interview, he's now gained' [...]
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  Posted: August 23, 2008, 8:56am EDT
  

• As the World Cools.

  Number of comments: 1
  In spite of the hub-bub about greenhouse gas linked warming, there are a number of scientists who are convinced that solar activity is a much larger factor. [Some scientists even suggest carbon levels rise after the earth heats up as a consequence, not before/as a cause.] Sunspots are one measure [...]
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  Posted: August 21, 2008, 9:09am EDT
  

• MAN BITES DOG - er, POLITICIAN.

  Number of comments: 0
  Perhaps I should say "Man bites pandering politicians."
  
  This is great, and amazing. A new poll showing that Americans are smart enough to figure out that windfall profits taxes on oil companies, SPR releases, and gas tax holidays are not going to fix the energy problem. Who'd have thunk' [...]
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  Posted: August 21, 2008, 7:40am EDT
  by mh497

• Bill and Warren's Excellent Alberta Adventure.

  Number of comments: 0
  It's been a long time since I've done an Canadian oil sands post. These stocks have been clobbered along with everything else, but these are huge resources that will be producing for a long time. These projects aren't without issues, as it's carbon intensive, needs natural gas input as well [...]
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  Posted: August 21, 2008, 7:01am EDT
  by mh497

• Insider buying in energy stocks.

  Number of comments: 0
  I started looking at this yesterday. Among names that are seeing some buying:
  
  MMR
  HK
  GDP
  CLR
  HERO
  
  It's nice to see insiders jumping in here, though sometimes they are a bit early. It looks like energy stocks may finally be finding a floor, after a solid month+' [...]
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  Posted: August 19, 2008, 10:29pm EDT
  

• Pickens: Not too long under $100.

  Number of comments: 0
  Using wind for electrical energy generation, shifting natural gas to a transportation fuel, reducing oil imports 50% in 10 years, yada yada yada. Ok, kidding about the yada yada yada, I've just featured Mr Picken's ideas a number of times now.
  
  It's an extremely important issue, this is one' [...]
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  Posted: August 19, 2008, 8:48pm EDT
  

• Where is the oil price floor?

  Number of comments: 0
  I think Tom Petrie might be right - a natural floor might be around $80 to $90 for oil. But I think we don't get there because of the winter (which I suspect will be cold) and because the market is still going to leave a bit of a premium' [...]
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  Posted: August 18, 2008, 9:47pm EDT
  

• Got shale?

  Number of comments: 1
  Alternative title: Taking the edge off peak oil.
  
  Oil is unlikely to go back to $30, even with this potential boom in shale gas production in the US, but it's looking like we actually have something workable here, mid-term.
  
  The peak oil doomsters are really not going' [...]
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  Posted: August 03, 2008, 4:37pm EDT
  

• How do you spell relief?

  Number of comments: 0
  Apparently, S-H-A-L-E.
  
  CNBC: Relief for America's Energy Crisis.' [...]
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  Posted: July 30, 2008, 9:10am EDT
  

• BRIC BRAC.

  Number of comments: 1
  Stephen Leeb makes the interesting suggestion that we re-think "BRIC" - Brazil, Russia, India and China and substitute "BRAC" - Brazil, Russia, Australia and Canada, i.e. substitute emerging countries with resource rich countries.
  
  I like the idea for diversification as well. You never can tell who's about to nationalize,' [...]
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  Posted: July 20, 2008, 2:12pm EDT
  

• Is the oil bull market dead?

  Number of comments: 0
  CNBC: Oil's Biggest 3-Day Drop In 5 years.
  
  I'm surprised there was little mention in this video of the supply and demand factor. Yesterday we saw a big build in crude and today a decent build in natural gas. The huge move in oil and natural gas that [...]
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  Posted: July 17, 2008, 8:11pm EDT
  

• Roque: Own commodities instead of stocks.

  Number of comments: 1
  I'm a bit of an agonistic on gold, but you can't bury your head in the sand and ignore it. Compounding financial crisis, inflation, printing money... gold is in.
  
  CNBC: Commodities Explosion. [...]
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  Posted: July 14, 2008, 9:13pm EDT
  

• Haynesville Shale.

  Number of comments: 0
  shreveporttimes.com: CEO: Haynesville Shale is fourth largest in the world.
  
  Quotes:
  
  The Haynesville Shale is likely to become America's largest natural gas field and perhaps the fourth largest in the world, Chesapeake Energy Chairman and CEO Aubrey McClendon disclosed Wednesday in a conference call with its newest' [...]
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  Posted: July 06, 2008, 9:43am EDT
  

• The consequences of higher oil prices.

  Number of comments: 1
  This is an interesting discussion of the impact of higher oil prices from the newspaper of record in the heart of car country, the Los Angeles Times.
  
  While I don't feel sorry for Ms. Carver and her Palmdale to Commerce commute (that was a bad idea even with cheap' [...]
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  Posted: June 28, 2008, 11:52am EDT
  

• There's a little black spot on the sun today.

  Number of comments: 1
  There's a little black spot on the sun today.
  It's the same old thing as yesterday,
  That's my soul up there.
  
  I have stood here before in the pouring rain
  With the world turning circles running 'round my brain.
  
  The Police: King of Pain.
  
  Floods in [...]
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  Posted: June 20, 2008, 8:41am EDT
  

• Ken Heebner hearts Petrobras.

  Number of comments: 0
  Ken Heebner is a mutual fund manager at CGM Funds and was recently dubbed "America's Hottest Investor" by Fortune Magazine.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "How do you explain genius?" muses Douglas Pratt, a former Invesco fund manager who was an analyst at Loomis. "Ken just sees things others don't."
  [...]
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  Posted: June 18, 2008, 7:01am EDT
  

• The horror.

  Number of comments: 1
  We sure had it nice for a while, didn't we?
  
  Still a lot of conservation to go, apparently.
  
  WSJ: Gasoline Hits Average of $4 a Gallon.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "It's just gotten out of hand," said 53-year-old Yvonne Brune of Des Moines, Iowa, referring to the [...]
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  Posted: June 09, 2008, 8:23am EDT
  

• Please God, give us one last shale boom.

  Number of comments: 1
  We promise not to miss it this time.
  
  Bakken: CLR, EOG, HES, ERF, WLL, MRO, NOG.
  
  Haynesville: CHK, GDP, HK, GMXR, PVA.
  
  Marcellus: CHK, ATLS, RRC, ATN.
  
  Others: XCO, SM, BEXP, CRK, EAC, XTO.
  
  Service: HP, CRR, WFT, etc.
  
  Bloomberg: Dakota Oil Fields [...]
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  Posted: June 03, 2008, 9:08am EDT
  

• To Fadel Gheit, with love.

  Number of comments: 0
  Something to think about, though I'd cite Tim Evans as a bigger skeptic, and so far, totally wrong.
  
  MSN Money: The end of the oil stock rally.
  
  
  When everyone agrees that oil stocks are the thing to own, where is the supply of new buyers going [...]
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  Posted: June 01, 2008, 12:58pm EDT
  

• Will the real bubble please stand up?

  Number of comments: 0
  Say goodnight to the SUV bubble and the associated cheap gasoline consumption bubble.
  
  The guy running GM needs to be thrown out. [Mulally at Ford came in from Boeing a couple of years ago and thus gets some slack.]
  
  Wall Street Journal: Ford Stumble Signals Rising [...]
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  Posted: May 23, 2008, 8:17am EDT
  

• Leeb on the oil 'bubble'.

  Number of comments: 1
  jacksonsun.com: Author, chief of investment firm weighs in on oil crisis.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Question: Is what we are seeing with oil prices a pricing bubble, or are high oil prices here to stay?
  
  Answer: With the housing bubble, people were just building and building and building and [...]
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  Posted: May 23, 2008, 5:40am EDT
  

• IEA: Better rethink that Certified Pre-Owned H2.

  Number of comments: 0
  MarketWatch: Report: IEA set to cut oil-supply forecast.
  
  Quotes:
  
  The Paris-based International Energy Agency is getting ready to issue a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, according to a published report.
  
  A story in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal early Thursday reported [...]
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  Posted: May 22, 2008, 8:23am EDT
  

• Short covering rally?

  Number of comments: 0
  This last move in oil does have the feel of a short covering rally. If so, it will be interesting to see where it settles out when it's over. $110 would be my guess for a floor, but that's a long way down. That price still makes oil companies a [...]
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  Posted: May 22, 2008, 8:10am EDT
  

• Somebody's a little off here.

  Number of comments: 0
  I'd guess the guy in the middle.
  
  
  Bloomberg: Oil Rises Above $134 on U.S. Supply Drop, Bank Price Forecasts.
  
  Quote:
  
  ``What we have here is a situation where essentially higher prices aren't generating any more supply,'' Paul Sankey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities in [...]
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  Posted: May 21, 2008, 9:04pm EDT
  

• Separating the men from the boys.

  Number of comments: 0
  CNBC: $12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "The prices that we're paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be 'the good old days,' because others who watch this very closely forecast that we're going to be hitting $12 and $15 a gallon, [...]
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  Posted: May 21, 2008, 6:54am EDT
  

• Pickens Wants to Move It, Move It to Natural Gas.

  Sorry, I just couldn't resist.
  
  
  
  CNBC: Pickens: Oil Going to $150, So Move to Gas.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87 million," he said. "It's just that simple. It doesn't have [...]
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  Posted: May 20, 2008, 9:21am EDT
  

• Give me liberty or give me windfall profit taxes.

  I sort of admired Barack Obama when I first heard about him, but his idea about windfall profit taxes on oil companies is about the quickest legislative way to get to $200 oil that I can think of. If you want less investment in oil and natural gas production, vote [...]
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  Posted: May 20, 2008, 5:56am EDT
  

• Goldman Sachs: Fundamentals.

  MarketWatch: Oil and gas producers lead London higher.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its forecast for the average price of West Texas Intermediate oil in the second half of 2008 by 32% to $141 a barrel from $107 a barrel.
  
  "We believe that the [...]
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  Posted: May 16, 2008, 8:47am EDT
  

• Oil price: Speculators or fundamentals?

  [Fundamentals = supply & demand.]
  
  I'm with Jerry Castellini. Oil is at ~ $125 mainly because of the fundamentals. If it were primarily speculation driven, there would be a larger inventory build up, which we are not seeing.
  
  CNBC: Market Mavens. [...]
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  Posted: May 15, 2008, 8:37pm EDT
  

• Boone Pickens from Milken.

  Infectious Greed: Great T. Boone Pickens Interview from Milken. [...]
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  Posted: May 10, 2008, 9:34am EDT
  

• Bizarro Headline of the Day.

  Amidst all of the noise, it's easy to forget that the US continues to be one of the world's largest exporters. The strong dollar policy is paying off, and this may be the reason we're not in a full blown recession.
  
  The Wall Street Journal: Container Shortage Frustrates [...]
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  Posted: May 09, 2008, 5:18am EDT
  

• What's going on with oil?

  Seeing CNBC with features on oil all throughout the day makes me nervous we may be at a short term top.
  
  But what's going on with oil?
  
  Everybody suddenly realized just how valuable it is.
  
  
  CNBC: What's Going on With Oil? [...]
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  Posted: May 08, 2008, 9:32pm EDT
  

• For Hillary - Stand Down Margaret.

  Number of comments: 1
  Written originally for a woman of a diametrically opposed political view, I'd like to dedicate this song to Hillary Clinton.
  
  She may not be ready to give in, and her opponent Obama doesn't appear quite ready for prime time either, but Hillary is done, as I thought [...]
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  Posted: May 08, 2008, 8:25am EDT
  

• Goldman Sachs Gone Wild!

  CNBC: Goldman: Natural Gas Crunch Possible This Winter.
  
  Goldman Sachs: $100 oil reality, part 2: Has the super-spike end game begun?
  
  [Otherwise known as the $150-200 Oil Report.] [...]
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  Posted: May 07, 2008, 6:44pm EDT
  

• He's back, too.

  Eric Bolling used to be on CNBC's Fast Money until FoxNews gave him an offer he apparently couldn't refuse. (A big loss for Fast Money and maybe for Bolling too as litigation kept him offscreen for a while.) He's appearing on Fox now, but since nobody much watches... Anyway, he's [...]
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  Posted: May 06, 2008, 8:16am EDT
  

• He's back.

  The super spike is now moved from $105 to $200. Whoa boy. While U.S. demand is starting to actually fall, it's still rising in China and other places.
  
  Bloomberg: Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Crude oil may rise to between $150 [...]
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  Posted: May 06, 2008, 5:31am EDT
  

• The tide turns, finally.

  Number of comments: 1
  The New York Times: As Gas Costs Soar, Buyers Flock to Small Cars.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.
  
  In what industry analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the [...]
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  Posted: May 02, 2008, 9:07am EDT
  

• Boone Pickens on CNBC.

  CNBC: Picken's Next Prediction.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "The biggest move will come in natural gas, not oil."
  
  I'm with ya there, Boone.
  
  Bloomberg: Pickens Says Oil Prices May Rise to $150 by Year End. [...]
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  Posted: April 29, 2008, 9:04pm EDT
  

• The scale of the problem.

  Submitted by my friend Richard, and via fivecentnickel.com:
  
  c|net Green Tech Blog: Can renewable energy make a dent in fossil fuels?
  
  Quotes:
  
  4.2 billion.
  
  That's how many rooftops you'd have to cover with solar panels to displace a cubic mile of oil (CMO), a [...]
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  Posted: April 29, 2008, 9:03am EDT
  

• Prisoners of the Sun II.

  Investor's Business Daily: See Gore, See Spot.
  
  Quotes:
  
  A former NASA astronaut says the same solar phenomenon that doomed Napoleon's army may soon stop Al Gore's march to glory cold. Prepare for the big chill.
  
  Napoleon's retreat from Moscow is a legendary military disaster. While historians [...]
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  Posted: April 24, 2008, 8:43pm EDT
  

• An hour with Boone Pickens.

  Okay, technically 51:29, but who's counting.. Mr. Pickens talks about oil & energy, but he covers other topics too, and he's a pretty funny guy.
  
  A geologist, a savy, seen-it-all businessman, a decent American, he's warning us about our energy situation, and we seem (so far) not to be [...]
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  Posted: April 17, 2008, 9:38pm EDT
  

• Be Bullish.

  WSJ: Crude, Heating Oil, Gas All End at Record Highs.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Buyers also found inspiration in global demand. China imported 1.66 million tons of diesel from January through March, the General Administration of Customs reported Tuesday, a sevenfold increase from the 230,000 tons imported in the same [...]
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  Posted: April 16, 2008, 8:33pm EDT
  

• Prisoners of the Sun.

  First, kudos to anybody that caught that "Land of Black Gold" and "Prisoners of the Sun" are both Tintin adventures. Considering the limited audience here, and the obscure reference that makes.. probably nobody. Oh well. Spielberg's making a picture, or apparently three.
  
  We are all (myself [...]
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  Posted: April 10, 2008, 8:43pm EDT
  

• Charles Nenner: Energy Mania Coming.

  Charles Nenner predicting an energy and emerging markets mania to come, sees energy as one place to be for a couple of years.
  
  CNBC: Oracle of Eyes.
  
  P.S. Coming?
  
  P.P.S. How did they keep Joe Kernen quiet in this piece? [...]
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  Posted: April 09, 2008, 8:55am EDT
  

• Help, Svetlana, stop this crazy thing!

  Russia, which was able to outproduce Saudi Arabia for a couple of years there, may be on the oil production treadmill now too.
  
  Reuters: Russian March oil output falls again, exports recover.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Russia failed to grow its oil output for a third month in a [...]
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  Posted: April 03, 2008, 8:36am EDT
  by mh497

• Play that funky music white boy.

  My prediction: Until we get this energy mess addressed, stocks as represented by the whole market/indexes aren't going to do anything worth writing a Page One Wall Street Journal article about.
  
  On a side note, ever notice how white (and generally older) the Peak Oil establishment is? Sheesh. [...]
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  Posted: March 25, 2008, 11:15pm EDT
  

• Bernanke Begins (2008).

  Number of comments: 2
  Genre: Drama / Crime / Thriller
  
  Tagline: It's not who he replaces but what he does that defines him.
  
  Plot Outline:
  
  Gotham is in crisis. The citizenry has lost confidence, the market's in a panic, home-less are everywhere, and the city's headlines are dominated by news [...]
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  Posted: March 19, 2008, 9:13am EDT
  

• For that price, I'd have &^%$#@ bought Bear Stearns.

  I was thinking I'd be buying Goldman Sachs this week, instead I'll be buying JPMorgan.
  
  I'm not a fan of the financials (actually I hate 'em), it may not even be the bottom, and it's probably going to be a while before the smoke clears, but you have [...]
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  Posted: March 16, 2008, 7:34pm EDT
  

• In energy we trust. Everybody else pays cash.

  Almost time to buy Goldman Sachs, I think.
  
  CNBC: Bear Stearns Gets Funding to Restore Confidence.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Bear Stearns received a secured loan facility from JPMorgan Chase as part of steps it is taking to shore up the market's confidence in its operations.
  
  JPMorgan [...]
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  Posted: March 14, 2008, 9:38am EDT
  

• Aubrey McClendon Still Buying.

  Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy continues his campaign of aggressively buying his companies' stock.
  
  The company was on a large on-shore leasing spree for a while, accumulated a significant inventory, and now is working on bringing it's natural gas to production. It's been steadily rising up the [...]
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  Posted: March 12, 2008, 7:31am EDT
  

• World's central banks hit the gas.

  This move in oil to $109 has been pretty awe inspiring, and it even stomped all over a bearish call by Boone Pickens.
  
  It wasn't terribly clear what was behind the move, as inventories are trending up, and gasoline demand appears to be backing off, but now [...]
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  Posted: March 11, 2008, 8:49am EDT
  

• Surprise: Matthew Simmons on Fast Money.

  I've never seen the Fast Money traders as rapt, sober faced and quip-less as this appearance by Matthew Simmons, where Matt makes more jokes than this usually boisterous crew do.
  
  The reason, of course: If he's right, and oil has peaked, it has implications for virtually every aspect of [...]
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  Posted: March 08, 2008, 4:41pm EST
  

• No law at all in Deadwood.

  Number of comments: 2
  Some people, me included, would argue that the root of our current problems lies with the 'see no bubble' policies of Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman. Internet bubble, real estate bubble, ARM bubble, it was all good under Easy Al, who couldn't stand to see a party end on his [...]
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  Posted: March 06, 2008, 8:49pm EST
  

• "All the nat gas stocks are buys."

  He said it, not me.
  
  As in, Guy Adami of CNBC's Fast Money commenting on EOG Resources, which he thinks is a bit rich valuation wise; he prefers APA. Recognize that you are betting against Boone Pickens here, at least temporarily.
  
  CNBC Fast Money: Stock Pops [...]
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  Posted: March 01, 2008, 4:43pm EST
  

• More nat gas please. (And ag.)

  Number of comments: 2
  National Post: Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin [...]
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  Posted: February 26, 2008, 9:16am EST
  

• Boone Pickens on CNBC.

  Boone Pickens was interviewed this morning on CNBC and he spoke for a while about the long term challenges for energy in America, how none of the presidential candidates had any kind of reasonable plan for really dealing with this, and the fact that we are sending a half a [...]
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  Posted: February 21, 2008, 8:40am EST
  

• Go Aggies!!

  Number of comments: 2
  My slightly tongue in cheek prescription for 2008:
  
  Buy ag and natural gas and take the rest of the year off.
  
  Bloomberg: Food Is a Great Asset -- Minus the Fund Manager: Andy Mukherjee.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Investors can't afford to ignore food. As a hedge [...]
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  Posted: February 19, 2008, 11:32pm EST
  

• Boone Pickens: The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind.

  NewsOk.com: Boone Pickens shares his views on energy, politics, the Olympics, OSU's new president.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Before 2010, the price for a thousand cubic feet of natural gas will be $10, Boone Pickens predicts. And oil prices will reach $100 a barrel again before the end of this [...]
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  Posted: February 10, 2008, 11:41am EST
  

• The Recession Will Be Televised.

  This article explains a little more on ECRI's thinking on the window of opportunity of averting recession.
  
  MSN: Where's a safe harbor now?
  
  Quotes:
  
  There's an odd paradox at work, you see. Lakshman Achuthan, the head honcho of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has successfully [...]
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  Posted: February 05, 2008, 5:33am EST
  

• Top Things We Don't Want to Hear - #2.

  ECRI indicating the risk of recession is very high, and the window of opportunity to avoid it is about to "slam shut". ECRI has a pretty good track record of calling these things.
  
  Reuters: Gauge of economy falls, recession looms: ECRI.
  
  Quotes:
  
  A weekly gauge [...]
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  Posted: February 04, 2008, 7:15am EST
  

• Weeden Oil Analyst Charles Maxwell on Moneytalk.

  Last night, Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden and Co., was again a guest on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk radio show.
  
  [You can listen to this show for the next 6 days at KGO-AM 810 radio here.]
  
  There wasn't a lot of new stuff [...]
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  Posted: February 03, 2008, 1:04pm EST
  

• The recession is in.

  Number of comments: 1
  I'm not quite sure what to make of this statistic that Google searches dropped month by month for October, November and December of last year. The article mentions that normally searches drop around Christmas, but I don't consider October and November to be 'around Christmas'. And I am not aware [...]
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  Posted: January 27, 2008, 11:47am EST
  

• Here's the fairly substantial financial incident.

  Number of comments: 1
  Little quicker than I thought, but it appears to explain that torrent of selling overseas Monday.
  
  Bloomberg: Societe Generale Reports EU4.9 Billion Trading Loss.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Societe Generale SA said bets on stock index futures by a rogue trader caused a 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) trading loss, [...]
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  Posted: January 24, 2008, 8:40pm EST
  

• A Random Run Down Wall Street.

  Note to self:
  
  A stampede eventually tires and gets pretty hungry. Keep an eye on the grains. Not saying buy, just keep an eye.
  
  e.g. DBA, RJA. [...]
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  Posted: January 22, 2008, 8:48am EST
  

• There will be blood.

  Note to self:
  
  Do not buy any financials or any major market average that is dominated by financials until you see a fairly substantial financial incident. [...]
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  Posted: January 22, 2008, 8:19am EST
  

• Walks like a duck, talks like a duck..

  Number of comments: 2
  Pretty obvious, really. The question is, does it get worse, stabilize, or gradually recover? A week or so ago I thought to myself as I listened to interviews on CNBC and Bloomberg that, boy, most of these people sound pretty cavalier. Now the mood has changed. I just heard Bob [...]
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  Posted: January 18, 2008, 9:11am EST
  

• Tough call.

  The economy is clearly slowing, and the market is getting fearful, but, as this note points out, it's a crap shoot whether this is medium term negative or positive for the market. Basically, it depends on how long and hard this slump is, which is tough to predict in advance. [...]
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  Posted: January 08, 2008, 8:52am EST
  

• Death to the housing oil bubblers!

  Tech, housing, oil.. all great bull markets come to an end at some point.
  
  And this was my year to sell, I started to think. Maybe sell 'em all. That's right, sell everything.
  
  Adios.
  
  Auf wiedersehen.
  
  Hasta la vista, baby.
  
  I came [...]
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  Posted: January 04, 2008, 8:45am EST
  

• No sex. No drugs. No wine. No women.

  Or perhaps, more wine. Lots more wine.
  
  Via the excellent housing blog, Calculated Risk:
  
  Times: Top economist says America could plunge into recession.
  
  Quotes:
  
  Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to [...]
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  Posted: December 31, 2007, 12:21am EST
  

• Heebner: I'm Cuckoo for Petrobras.

  Kenneth Heebner of CGM Funds apparently really likes Brazilian oil producer Petrobras (PBR), and he's bullish on the economy of Brazil in general. The Fortune article I highlighted earlier mentioned Heebner is a fanatical researcher, that's on display in these videos.
  
  Note: I believe there is an error in [...]
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  Posted: December 28, 2007, 5:47pm EST
  

• Wolves in mutual fund manager's clothing.

  Both Kenneth Heebner of CGM Funds and Robert Rodriguez of FPA Funds run mutual funds, but they are both by nature hedge fund managers; highly intelligent with strong opinions, they are not afraid of going against the grain (or tides) by concentrating their bets in certain areas or [...]
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  Posted: December 25, 2007, 9:18am EST
  

• A chicken in every pot, and $1.5099 oil for every SUV in the garage.

  When the race first started, I heard from a lot of people that this woman was going to win. I couldn't see it then, and I don't see it now.
  
  This news byte is hilarious to me either way. Oil prices flit around in the short term, but [...]
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  Posted: December 23, 2007, 4:29pm EST
  

• Charles Nenner: 2008 to be rough.

  Number of comments: 1
  In a bit of a hurry, but Charles Nenner predicting a stock market rally into the end of the year, then a pretty rough 2008, and a deflation scare.
  
  There are no absolutes, but under most scenarios, a deflation scare doesn't have bullish implications for oil or oil [...]
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  Posted: December 06, 2007, 9:08am EST
  

• Goldman: Sell Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

  Number of comments: 2
  Goldman Sachs basically downgrading the US economy, saying there's a 45% chance of a US recession next year, and turns neutral on integrated oil and oil service ['oil service' corrected from earlier 'refiners' sorry.], among other things.
  
  Oh, but they figure everybody will be stressed out enough that [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2007, 9:37pm EST
  

• The fat lady gets a Prius.

  Number of comments: 4
  Note the prediction of an oil price drop to $60 to $80 over the next several years as consumption actually declines. Note also that Henry Groppe has a track record of solid predictions. (search for his name, I'm in a rush right now).
  
  The Aspen Times: Where virtue, [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2007, 9:08am EST
  

• Please God, not the cover.

  Number of comments: 2
  Making the cover is usually a great contrarian signal. Not there yet, but if oil slices through $100 too easily, look out for the Man of the Year (also a contrarian signal) to be oil or alternative energy related.
  
  Time: Peak Possibilities
  
  Quotes:
  
  In July 2006, [...]
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  Posted: November 26, 2007, 9:10am EST
  

• Page A1, with a bullet.

  Number of comments: 2
  It's not really polite for me to quote the whole article, so I suggest you buy a copy to read. And for posterity, of course.
  
  The Wall Street Journal: Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production.
  
  Quotes:
  
  A growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2007, 11:42pm EST
  

• Will the wolf bull survive?

  A very serious question. Trendlines, support lines, and the next week or two are very important, as are stop losses.
  
  Barron's: Are Energy Stocks Out of Energy?
  
  Quotes:
  
  THE AMAZING RUN IN THE ENERGY SECTOR has hit a ceiling. While the much-ballyhooed $100 per barrel price [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2007, 8:01am EST
  

• See Dick Run [From the Financials].

  In case you get the urge to buy the financials. He's not advocating shorting, but he sure isn't buying them either.
  
  Bloomberg: Dick Bove of Punk Ziegel. [...]
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  Posted: November 08, 2007, 9:34am EST
  

• John Roque: Oil Good, Financials Bad.

  Bill Miller of Legg Mason called the other day for buying the financials. That was a call he must have placed from his yacht off a very sunny coast somewhere. Though some of them may have seen the worst of their downside, I'd say financials have a long road [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2007, 6:41am EST
  

• $94 oil? Still sorta cheap..

  Somebody forgot to mention that:
  
  - crude oil, natural gas or coal is an input to some (many?) of the 'alternative' fuels.
  
  - most of them don't scale well, particularly not to the volumes we use (currently..)
  
  - the current infrastructure was built for and around oil; [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2007, 8:24pm EST
  

• Supply constrained = peak?

  This Bloomberg article is about coal, but what I find interesting is the comparisons between coal and oil use and prices dating back to 1998 and 2002.
  
  Both coal and oil are energy sources, but they are not perfect substitutes for one another; coal is used mostly for [...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2007, 5:47am EST
  

• It's Hard Out Here for a Peak Oil Pimp.

  Actually, with $90+ oil, and articles like these, it's not so hard anymore. I used to make a proactive effort to try to explain the concept of peak oil and the possibilities of oil investing at work, in personal conversations, at dinner parties, but I found people were rather blase [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2007, 9:06am EST
  

• Crude Realities with Matt Simmons.

  Interesting interview, particularly the fact that the CNBC anchor, Becky Quick, keeps overtly referring to "peak oil".
  
  Sea change? I think so.
  
  $100 oil will do that to you, I suppose, as will Matt Simmons' calculations that fair value for oil is, oh, around $300 a [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2007, 8:28am EDT
  

• Energy is early in the cycle.

  CNBC: Jerry Castellini
  
  Jerry Castellini, President/CIO at CastleArk Management talks about the Fed, housing and then oil.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "This oil move, it's ironically still in that debate phase, where people are still trying to debate where $50, or $30, or $60; the reality is the [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2007, 8:00am EDT
  

• Alberta Royalty "Adjustments".

  If you haven't already heard, Alberta wants to raise the royalties oil and gas producers are paying in the Canadian province. The theoretical fly in the ointment for the government is that several producers, among them the largest producers from oil sands, Suncor and Syncrude, have contracts that extend until [...]
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  Posted: October 31, 2007, 8:42am EDT
  

• It's not easy being printing the green.

  Come on Jim, tell us what you really think..
  
  Bloomberg Video: Jim Rogers.
  
  Quotes:
  
  "I would urge everybody listening to your show to figure out ways to start getting money out of the US dollar.."
  
  "We now have a madman at the head of the [...]
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  Posted: October 29, 2007, 10:25pm EDT
  

• Somebody wake up Hicks.

  Via The Oil Drum, a link to a copious set of notes from the recent ASPO Conference in Houston. The associated slides from the presentations are here.
  
  
  
  P.S. The quote is from Aliens. [...]
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  Posted: October 29, 2007, 8:42am EDT
  

• Porsche. Oil. There is no [easy] substitute.

  This is a very interesting article and research paper on energy alternatives. The stock market clearly supports solar and doubts ethanol, and the data in these support those views. We're a long way off from the vision of solar charged vehicles on a mass scale though.
  
  MSN [...]
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  Posted: October 26, 2007, 8:14am EDT