Items by Roger Nusbaum

• Friday Randoms

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 0
  S&P has created an index that tracks the S&P 500 hedged with gold. The idea is US equity exposure for US based investors that offers protection against a decline in the US dollar. The catalyst for this was a "response to the current interest surrounding gold." Over the last [...]
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  Posted: December 04, 2009, 8:01am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• More Bernanke

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 4
  In replying to Charles Schumer he talked about the difficulty in knowing whether asset prices are valued correctly or not.
  
  Ok but that completely voids his recent comments where he sees no "misalignments."
  
  Good gravy this strikes me as a rather poor showing. [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 12:02pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Bernanke

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 1
  Ben Bernanke's comments about AIG not only sounded awful but it seemed like even he didn't believe them.
  
  This should remind us of the great philosopher from the late 20th century, George Louis Constanza who said "it is not a lie if you believe it."' [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 11:47am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• ETFInsights Conference

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 9
  Yesterday I participated in the virtual ETFInsights conference put on by InvestmentNews. My co-panelists were Gus Sauter from Vanguard, Sam Stovall from S&P and Rudy Aguilera from Helios. Needless to say there are some big names there and I made four. After it was over one of the moderators said [...]
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  Posted: December 03, 2009, 8:20am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Chinese Sectorology And Other Fund Facts

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 2
  As mentioned the other day the first of the China sector ETFs are up and running. GlobalX launched an industrial sector fund with ticker CHII and a consumer fund with ticker CHIQ. The original filing also included funds for financials, energy, technology and materials which IndexUniverse thinks will be out [...]
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  Posted: December 02, 2009, 8:17am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Even Harvard Made This Mistake

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 4
  The Boston Globe (with a hat tip to Barry Ritholtz) ran an article looking at how Harvard managed it cash over the course of the last couple of decades. This cash is for short term needs not the endowment fund.
  
  For years the short term cash was [...]
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  Posted: December 01, 2009, 7:56am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• China Sector ETFs To Arrive Tomorrow

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 2
  Probably.
  
  I was advised that the GlobalX China Consumer ETF (CHIQ) and the GlobalX China Industrial ETF (CHII) will start trading on December 1.
  
  An initial look under the hood makes a good first impression in terms of these capturing what I had hoped they would when I [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 5:48pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Never Mind?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 8
  So after the big standstill news last week from Dubai the UAE Central Bank is going to provide a liquidity facility to help support the banks in Dubai and instill confidence for foreign banks in the region. Apparently property prices have plunged and from what I can glean this [...]
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  Posted: November 30, 2009, 8:23am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Hussman Posted Early

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 3
  Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment
  
  And the money quote;
  
  Frankly, I've come to believe that the markets are no longer reliable or sound discounting mechanisms.
  
  Wow.' [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 10:38pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Sunday Morning Coffee

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 11
  A couple of interesting items in Barron's this week.
  
  First is this article about the extent to which the Chinese banks need to recapitalize and which banks have done what toward that end. The China theme has a lot of meat on the bone but it is complicated [...]
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  Posted: November 29, 2009, 8:19am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 29, 2009

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 8
  A few items today.
  
  In the wake of the Dubai news the FT mentioned some of the trouble happening in Greece. For ages I have been talking about being underweight big Western Europe for having a lot of the same types of trouble that the US has but [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 8:36am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Dubai Ports Publicly Traded?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 2
  So apparently DP World, the port business of Dubai World which of course is at the center of all the hub-bub, is publicly traded on the pinksheets.
  
  The five letter designator is DPWRF and it did trade on Friday. Not surprisingly Schwab cannot accommodate anyone [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 1:42pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• A New Default To Worry About?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 6
  Apparently the Dubai Brothers may have trouble making their next interest payment and the initial reactions from many world markets has been bad.
  
  Ahem.
  
  24/7 Wall Street provides a tidy recap and links out to some newsier articles for more info which you [...]
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  Posted: November 27, 2009, 8:16am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Polish Power!

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 9
  The Market Vectors Poland ETF (PLND) is up and running. I mentioned this in that very high quality video I posted not realizing it would be out on so soon.
  
  As I thought, it is heavy in bank stocks, about 40% of the fund. Every [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:19pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• New Single Country ETFs Coming

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 2
  
  
  This is a video I shot Monday at the Maui Invitational. Given our flight itinerary and having to spend the night at our inlaws I did not have time for a normal blog post. [...]
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  Posted: November 25, 2009, 8:05am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Send It In Jerome Yancy!

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 3
  Yesterday I had an article run at TSCM about ETF investing ideas for 2010. One ETF I wrote about will move bigger than the market in both directions, one should do well but have a relatively low correlation to the US market and the other [...]
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  Posted: November 24, 2009, 8:07am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Volatility Budgets

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  Recently I was asked what I thought about a particular big cap tech stock that is popular with investors. The person appeared to be surprised by my answer in such a way that lead me to think that he had not heard this point before.
  
  The stock has pluses [...]
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  Posted: November 23, 2009, 8:15am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Sunday Morning Coffee

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 16
  A bit of a departure this morning as Thanksgiving is coming up in a few days. We had a bit of a scare in the Nusbaum household the last week or so. Two of our dogs have had seizures in the last couple of weeks the [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 8:06am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 22, 2009

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 8
  Something to ponder.
  
  This came up in various places earlier on during this event but is worth thinking about again.
  
  Simple question; historically when do the biggest bounces in stock prices occur?
  
  While I have opinions as to what will happen the bigger [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 8:04am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• ETP Utility and Silliness

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 4
  First utility. IndexIQ is coming out of the gate as a bit of an enigma. The new Merger Arbitrage ETF (MNA) at first glance seems odd to me. There have been several articles already that have ripped it up for not really being an arbitrage product and I will say [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 8:08am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Risk Assets And Other Greenback Fun

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  Yves Smith from Naked Capitalism had a particularly meaty post earlier in the week about the current affairs of the US dollar. Of most interest was the following one-liner;
  
  But one difference this time is now the dollar, rather than the yen, looks like the best funding currency, [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 8:06am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Death Blow ETFs

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  Kelly Capital launches 100x leveraged ETFs | ETF Express
  
  I'm trying to be the first to coin the term Death Blow ETFs. LOL. Read the link above, these things are 100X levered. The symbols are SINK and SOAR. Death Blow ETFs, you (may have) heard it here first.[...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 2:21pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• What Was I Saying?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 11
  The other day I made a passing reference to the fact (hope?) that there would be some new ETP launched as the year winding down was a busy time. Well there have indeed been several interesting product launches that we can talk about.
  
  First up is First Trust with [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:19am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• "Its Not Obvious To Me That There Is Any Large Misalignment Currently"

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 14
  Sweet Fancy Moses.
  
  I am not a big fan of the word bubble as I think it gets overused. Not everything that goes up a lot and then goes down a lot is a bubble. In all likelihood the best time to really assess whether something is a bubble [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 8:08am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Virtual ETF Conference

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 0
  ETF Trends Partners with InvestmentNews on First Virtual ETF Conference
  
  I'm participating in this event at 2pm EST on the day of the conference. It is aimed at advisors but I am not sure if it is limited to advisors or not but it is an all day' [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 5:27pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• She Loves Gold!

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 8
  My brother forwarded this link from the NY Post by Hilary Kramer (remember her?) about gold. The article spelled out the recent history of the price of gold, some reasonable opinions as to why gold could go higher and then different ways to get into the space.
  
  Over [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 8:18am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Sunday Morning Coffee

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 17
  In the last couple of months I have taken to reading John Mauldin's weekly commentary via Barry Ritholtz' website. A few years ago, not knowing anything about him, I picked on some comments from Mauldin which was shortsighted on my part. But you learn and [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 8:15am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 15, 2009

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  This past week kicked off what stands to be a very busy couple of months in terms of conferences, panels, what do you think for 2010 interview requests and maybe new exchange traded products.
  
  What to make of a new year always makes for good [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Friday Roundup

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 6
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  New Zealand Prime Minister John Key was on CNBC Asia Friday morning giving a lengthy and very candid interview. He talked about the run up in the kiwi dollar and how it would be helpful for it [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 8:05am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Leveraged ETFs: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 1
  Leveraged ETFs: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel
  
  If you're interested this is the transcript to the ETF panel I was on with David Fry and Don Dion moderated by Mick Weinstein.' [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 10:00pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Discuss

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 27
  Busier way beyond normal for the next couple of days so don't have time for a proper blog post just now but maybe we can whip up a good debate.
  
  Nouriel Roubini seems to think that there is not much point in investing in gold' [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 8:22am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Leveraged ETFs: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel -- Seeking Alpha

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 1
  Leveraged ETFs: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel -- Seeking Alpha
  
  I'm participating in an online panel about levered ETFs at Seeking Alpha on Thursday at 2pm eastern time. The link above should work when the time comes.
  
  Hope you can check it out.' [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 2:11pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• ETF Wednesday

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  A few bits of ETF news to chime in on.
  
  First is an interesting filing from EG Shares (reported by IndexUniverse) for seven funds. They are India Infrastructure Index Fund, China Infrastructure Index Fund, Brazil Infrastructure Index Fund, India Mid Cap Index Fund, China Mid Cap Index Fund, [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 8:07am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• They Love Gold!

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 10
  The darker line shows the trend of central bank gold activity while the lighter line show the same thing from emerging market central banks.
  
  This is from FT Alphaville. [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 12:05pm EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Tuesday Tidbits

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 5
  A few random items this morning.
  
  First up is this article titled Could You Be Saving Too Much? I'll save you some time, no you could not be saving too much. The premise has to do with having too much left over at the end such that you' [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 8:03am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• How About An Actual Solution?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 20
  Saturday night I went to my 25 highschool reunion and bumped into a friend who is a physician's assistant in an emergency room in Maine. I asked him what he thought about all the healthcare stuff that is either happening or not happening, depending on how you view it.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 8:21am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture For The Week Of November 8, 2009

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 2
  That was the best picture I could get at the NYSE. It was a great time and David Darst is a very nice guy.
  
  Index Universe has a post up about iShares wading in to emerging market sector ETFs.
  
  Potentially bad news for [...]
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  Posted: November 07, 2009, 7:49am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• 10.2 on the Richter Scale

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 7
  As you know 10.2 was the unemployment print and the work force shrunk (meaning more people no longer unemployed using the gubmint's definition).
  
  The U-6 was 17.5%.
  
  One in ten is "unemployed" and almost two in ten is un or under employed.
  
  I' [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 9:45am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• In NYC Just In Time For The Yankees Parade!

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 3
  Sweet!
  
  No joke, the vast majority of the time that I have to fly during market hours (we're talking four or five times a year) the market skyrockets. Sorry party people, I'm flying back on Sunday.
  
  I'm writing this the Starbucks on Broadway and 81st maybe, eighty something' [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 8:15am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Thursday Tidbits

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 12
  By now you've heard about India buying 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF. Alphaville quoted the Indian Finance Minister as saying "the European and US economies had 'collapsed.'" Alphaville also noted that this was "the strongest signal yet that Asian countries are moving away from the US currency."[...]
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  Posted: November 05, 2009, 8:16am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Thoughts on Inflation

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 12
  If you read enough you can find persuasive arguments for both deflation and inflation. We've have clearly had an asset price deflation and people like Mish are convinced there will be a debt deflation, which would be bad. One bit of clarity about deflation is that prices coming down for' [...]
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  Posted: November 04, 2009, 8:14am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Periodic Table of Finance Bloggers

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 4
  The Periodic Table of Finance Bloggers
  
  From the Reformed Broker, Joshua Brown.
  
  I'm in the category of Baby Buffetts, probably because there is no Slack Jawed Yokels category. Very funny.' [...]
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  Posted: November 03, 2009, 9:35am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• A Trade

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 7
  We said goodbye to a dear old friend a few days ago by swapping out of Plum Creek Timber (PCL) and into American Tower (AMT).
  
  The reason why I owned PCL at all, actually there were several reasons, was because timberland generally has a low correlation to equities and [...]
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  Posted: November 03, 2009, 8:14am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Price Targets?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 14
  Jeff from Milan (two days in a row for him) asked a question that despite his being good naturedly heckled could make for a useful post. He asked a question that I took to be about how to set price targets and time horizons for stocks.
  
  Jeff will not [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2009, 8:08am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Sunday Morning Coffee

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 10
  In contributing to yesterday's conversation Jeff from Milan recycled quite the nugget from Nassim Nicholas Taleb that if people really understood the risks of investing in equities they'd never do it.
  
  While I do not agree with never investing in equities it is very clear that people generally do [...]
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  Posted: November 01, 2009, 7:51am EST
  by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 1, 2009

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 9
  Short post today.
  
  The media paid a lot of attention to several things yesterday. The huge move up in the fear gauge, aka the VIX. Dollar up means stocks down. 1042 is a very important number for the S&P 500.
  
  All of these things are very very important. [...]
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  Posted: October 31, 2009, 8:41am EDT
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Follow Ups & Other Fun Facts

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 8
  A few days ago I wrote somewhat critically about the IQ CPI Inflation Hedged ETF (CPI) and IQ Arb Global Resources ETF (GRES) and said I would try to listen on the conference call IndexIQ was hosting to explain the funds. I was able to get to the call [...]
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  Posted: October 30, 2009, 8:19am EDT
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Down On The Farm?

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 9
  This week's post from Jeffrey Saut took a look at a different type of Permanent Portfolio that not shockingly to long time readers I found to be very intriguing even if very difficult to implement. Maybe more correctly, impossible to implement... for now anyway.
  
  Saut took this idea from' [...]
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  Posted: October 29, 2009, 8:19am EDT
  by Roger Nusbaum

• Wednesday Roundup Of Doom

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 14
  Doom and fear seem to be making the rounds this week as they are always compelling and there are reasons to be concerned. One thing that you have probably read a couple of times is that with budget deficits of $1.4 trillion and deficits likely to be in that neighborhood [...]
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  Posted: October 28, 2009, 8:23am EDT
  by Roger Nusbaum

• China Is Getting Complicated

  —Random Roger's Big Picture

  Number of comments: 11
  I've been writing about China's ascending middle class as an investment catalyst since the start of this site. Quite predictably the story on the ground has been playing out either as fast we thought or slower than we thought but it is happening. The eye-popping number of how many cities [...]
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  Posted: October 27, 2009, 8:19am EDT
  by Roger Nusbaum