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  • Senate Primary Notes

    Number of comments: 3

    --My line I kept using all night: Massachusetts just took a huge step toward electing a babealicious US Senator... but he still has to beat Martha Coakley in January.

    --This line is stolen from my brother: Pennsylvania is the largest state that has never had a female Senator... however, I [...]

    Posted: December 09, 2009, 7:30am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Voting Day

    I've got little or nothing useful to tell you at this stage of the game (so, if you're hoping to be the next AG, just keep your britches cool for a while). Boston looks like it's going to have lower turnout than the Mayoral primary, probably a little under 20%. [...]

    Posted: December 08, 2009, 4:02pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Confirmation Of Contradiction

    Number of comments: 6

    Yesterday I reported that internal polls of different candidates in the US Senate race seemed to be saying very different things. Today I can update that, but the discrepancy still remains.

    Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what [...]

    Posted: December 03, 2009, 6:16pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Boys Network?

    Number of comments: 1

    I think Joan Vennochi's column today about Coakley facing an "old boys network" impediment for endorsements is partly accurate and partly off the mark. It's certainly true that political officeholders, especially direct colleagues, tend to help one another back and forth over time, and since Massachusetts politics has been so male-dominated for so [...]

    Posted: December 03, 2009, 12:23pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Senate Race Tightening... Or Not

    Number of comments: 5

    Sources with two Senate campaigns tell the Phoenix that their latest polling shows the Democratic primary race significantly tightening. But a source with the Coakley campaign says that their latest polling shows that the race is not tightening.

    It's always important to be wary of internal polling -- especially, as in these cases, [...]

    Posted: December 02, 2009, 3:00pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Boston Phoenix Endorses Capuano

    The Boston Phoenix this week is endorsing Michael Capuano in the Massachusetts Senate primary.

    Read the editorial here: Capuano For Senate

    [...]
    Posted: December 02, 2009, 12:30pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Thoughts And Comments

    Number of comments: 1

    ...for anyone wondering what's going on inside my tiny, cramped little brain...

    --I thought President Obama's address last night seemed quite effective, and I'd bet that polls show a bump in public support for his handling of Afghanistan. That, and Joe Biden, might help keep Congressional liberals calm about it. Maybe.

    --It's [...]

    Posted: December 02, 2009, 6:20am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Partly Cloudy, 45

    We're within the 10-day forecasting window, and weather.com predicts that December 8th -- primary day for the Massachusetts special US Senate election -- will be partly cloudy with a high of 45 degrees. That would be good for turnout, if it holds. The forecast does call for rain the following [...]

    Posted: November 30, 2009, 9:32am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Khazei Sneaking Up?

    Number of comments: 11

    I tend to be skeptical of Rasmussen polls, but here goes... of likely Dem primary voters:

    Coakley 36%

    Capuano 21%

    Khazei 14%

    Pagliuca 14%

    Other 5%

    Not sure 10%

    OK, for starters, what "other"? But moving on....

    For those who read my most recent column and are wondering if Coakley is Niki Tsongas redux -- never gaining [...]

    Posted: November 24, 2009, 10:04pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Senate Sprint

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- a day early because of Thanksgiving! -- I write about the final one-week sprint to the Democratic Senate primary, after Bay Staters return from the long Thanksgiving weekend.

    I also ponder the similarities -- and differences -- between this race and the [...]

    Posted: November 24, 2009, 4:41pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • War And Votes

    I recently wrote in the Boston Phoenix about how national news events, outside the candidates' control, can have an impact on the special election race for US Senate here in Massachusetts. It will be interesting to see how that plays out next week, when President Barack Obama drops a (metaphorical) [...]

    Posted: November 24, 2009, 11:09am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Baker-Tisei

    Charlie Baker announced via Twitter this morning that he is indeed selecting state senate minority leader Richard Tisei as his running mate. (Why now? So Tisei can raise money in two calendar years.)

    I think this pretty much makes this the most socially moderate Republican ticket in the history of ever. [...]

    Posted: November 23, 2009, 6:42am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Coakley Strong, Capuano 2nd

    Number of comments: 2

    Give the Globe some credit -- after getting some guff about their selectiveness in their last UNH poll on the mayor's race, they seem to have done a much better job with their new poll on the US Senate race, which is in today's paper and online.

    We still don't know [...]

    Posted: November 22, 2009, 7:09am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Tisei, Gay, By The Way

    Number of comments: 2

    Is this the most casual self-outing by a gay Republican in the history of politics or what?

    It will be interesting to see how the GOP base in the state reacts. If Charlie Baker does pick Tisei as his LG, it's possible that someone could run against him on an anti-gay [...]

    Posted: November 20, 2009, 7:22am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Good News, For A Change

    Hey, here's some news to crack a few smiles in the governor's office: the Massachusetts unemployment rate dropped from 9.3% to 8.7% in October -- the first monthly decline in 28 months.

    Total net job losses for the month were under 1000. Construction jobs eked positive for the first time since [...]

    Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:07am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Senate Positioning

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write about some of the ways the Democratic candidates for US Senate are trying to get attention and position.

    I start with a look at how Congressman Michael Capuano is trying to use prominent female [...]

    Posted: November 18, 2009, 6:42pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Deval Stymied

    The state legislature calls it quits for the year today, and here are the recent developments, according to reports from the State House News Service:

    --Speaker Bob DeLeo is indicating that he will not try to rush through the education bill that the Senate passed Tuesday, which is a major priority [...]

    Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:52am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Valence Advantage, Pt. 2: Mitt Romney

    Number of comments: 4

    In the previous post, I told you about my exchange with an academic at UCLA who studied candidate attractiveness. Well, it turns out that when you mention Massachusetts to people who study candidate attractiveness, their minds turn to one thing: the beautiful man with the perfect hair, Mitt Romney himself.

    Although [...]

    Posted: November 17, 2009, 3:44pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Valence Advantage, Pt. 1: Scott Brown

    I recently came upon an academic paper in which three UCLA poli-sci researchers concluded that more competitive election contests produce better-looking candidates than less competitive ones. For example, if the 'out' party has a good chance of beating the incumbent and taking the seat, somehow they come up with [...]

    Posted: November 17, 2009, 2:43pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • GOP 2012 Pres. Rankings, Updated 11/13

    Number of comments: 8

    I'm two weeks late in producing my every-two-months rankings of the likely 2012 Republican nominees for President. (I would offer as my excuse all the local political races I've had to cover, but most of you already know it's the cyber-slacking!)

    Anyway, no new #1, as Tim Pawlenty keeps doing all [...]

    Posted: November 13, 2009, 12:51pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • EXCLUSIVE -- Pelosi To Endorse Capuano

    Number of comments: 1

    The Michael Capuano campaign confirms for me that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will formally endorse Michael Capuano for US Senate, while she is in town Friday for a talk at Harvard.

    Capuano is considered a top Pelosi lieutenant -- he headed her transition team when the Democrats took the majority [...]

    Posted: November 12, 2009, 1:01pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Dobbs Out, Different Grey-Haired White Guy In

    Number of comments: 6

    So Lou Dobbs has departed CNN, where his increasingly insane rantings have positioned him for bigger and better things in the "movement conservative marketplace" I'm always talking about. I had predicted early on that he would run a third-party campaign for President in 2008, and he ended up considering it [...]

    Posted: November 12, 2009, 10:45am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Just A Bill

    Number of comments: 1

    In my article in this week's Boston Phoenix, I make note that during the 2008 Presidential election cycle, I heard repeatedly -- from Democrats, Republicans and Independents -- about how frustrated and fed-up they were with the US Congress. In their view, Washington had become impotent to address the country's big, serious problems, because the [...]

    Posted: November 11, 2009, 3:26pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Has Obama Peaked?

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- my estimable colleague Steven Stark and I go toe-to-toe on the future prospects for our President's popularity. Stark argues that Obama has peaked, and it's all downhill from here. I counter that his glory days [...]

    Posted: November 11, 2009, 2:16pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New England Guvs -- Historical Sweep?

    Number of comments: 1

    With the recent announcement that Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell, a Republican, will not run for re-election, there is a realistic, if slim, possibility that Democrats could hold all six New England governorships come January 2011. According to my extensive research -- OK, scrolling through Wikipedia, mostly -- I believe this would be the first time [...]

    Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:56am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Coakley's Stand -- A Union Problem?

    Number of comments: 3

    From a strictly dispassionate political calculus, Martha Coakley's declaration that she would have voted against the House health-care bill looks like a dumb move. A frontrunner never wants to open up new differences with her opponents, which this obviously did -- since Michael Capuano actually did vote yes. And this [...]

    Posted: November 10, 2009, 11:55am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • GOP Women Update -- & 1st Gay Dad In Congress?

    Number of comments: 1

    In the week or so since I posted at length about the meager outlook for women Republicans in elected office, I have some updates that seem to show the problem only worsening.

    First of all, as you probably know, DeDe Scozzafava was chased out of the race and, one assumes, out of the party altogether. [...]

    Posted: November 09, 2009, 5:35pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Deval Out Of The Spotlight

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take a look at Governor Deval Patrick, who has found himself, for once, left out of the spotlight and off the front pages. In theory, the distraction of the local elections and US Senate [...]

    Posted: November 04, 2009, 2:03pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Election Analysis -- The National Picture

    Number of comments: 1

    No question, the two GOP gubernatorial victories matter to the 16 million people who will now give a try at living under a Republican. But beyond that, can we say that yesterday's elections mean something?

    I don't believe that they are predictive of what the 2010 election cycle will look like. [...]

    Posted: November 04, 2009, 10:30am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Some Local Election Thoughts

    Number of comments: 5

    --I think Michael Flaherty ran a terrific campaign. Not much more that he could have done. It just wasn't in the cards.

    --Ditto for Tito Jackson. And Carlos Henriquez. And Alex Selvig.

    --And yes, I was wr.. wr... wr.... I was wr... wr... Damn! I was wrong about Boy Wonder Felix [...]

    Posted: November 04, 2009, 9:21am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Menino, For The Bad Times

    Tom Menino's victory speech in the packed Fairmont Copley ballroom was as much cautionary as celebratory. The papers may write about a historic fifth term, he said; but "when we've put our residents in jobs, shops in vacant spaces, students through college, and this city past a fiscal downturn, then let's talk about [...]

    Posted: November 04, 2009, 1:25am EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Turnout So Far

    Number of comments: 1

    As of 3:00 this afternoon, just under 60,000 ballots had been cast in Boston -- a 16.7% turnout so far, with five hours left, including the after-work rush. Based on the trends in the preliminary -- which had a relatively high late vote -- we can expect roughly 115,000 votes. 

    One [...]

    Posted: November 03, 2009, 4:14pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Voice On Your Telephone

    Ayanna Pressley's campaign passes along their list of pols who have recorded robo-calls for her:

    US Senator John Kerry; Sheriff Andrea Cabral; city councilors Mike Ross and John Tobin; state senators Sonia Chang-Diaz and Steve Tolman; and state reps Willie Mae Allen, Gloria Fox, Byron Rushing and Marty Walz.

    [...]
    Posted: November 02, 2009, 4:26pm EST
    by David S. Bernstein
  • BMG Poll, & Other Notes

    --The progressive Blue Mass Group blog/community, which opened a state PAC recently, commissioned a poll of the US Senate race. Taken Wednesday and Thursday, just after the first televised debate, the poll finds the race looks much like the Western Mass. poll showed before the debate: Coakley way ahead [...]

    Posted: October 31, 2009, 8:36am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Patrick Wields The Axe

    Gov. Patrick just announced his proposals for budget cuts in light of the $600m shortfall:

    --No cuts to Ch. 70A (schools), higher ed, or local aid;

    --Cutting $350m+ from executive branch agencies (specifics to come) -- which will affect services, he says;

    --9 more unpaid furlough days for all non-union employees; [...]

    Posted: October 29, 2009, 1:21pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Taking Sides For Senate

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I have an "items" column, with three items about the Massachusetts US Senate race.

    First, I look at the endorsements being made by local and state political officeholders -- really, a divide between Martha Coakley and [...]

    Posted: October 28, 2009, 5:12pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Women And The GOP -- Part III, Congress

    Number of comments: 1

    After looking at the chances for Republicans to add elected women governors and Senators in the 2010 election cycle, let's turn to the US House of Representatives.

    There are now just 17 Republican women in the House, out of 177 -- down from 25 three years ago.

    One of those 17 is [...]

    Posted: October 28, 2009, 10:59am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Women And The GOP -- Part II, US Senate

    Number of comments: 1

    Continuing from my last post, where I looked at the GOP's chances of adding women Governors in the 2010 election cycle. Now, let's turn our attention to the US Senate.

    This has been a particular embarrassment for the party, as they currently have just four women among their 40 Senators, down [...]

    Posted: October 28, 2009, 10:28am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Women And The GOP -- Part I, Governors

    Number of comments: 2

    Two problems for the national GOP that I've been writing about for several years are in evidence in a special election going on in upstate New York, for an open Congressional seat long held by a moderate Republican. The state GOP powers there maneuvered to nominate Dierdre "Dede" Scozzafava -- or, as Michelle Malkin [...]

    Posted: October 28, 2009, 10:27am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Cyber-Slacking Amateurs!

    Number of comments: 2

    As it happens, I am Facebook friends with, and a Twitter follower of, Michael Ross staffer Amy Derjue, dubbed today by the Boston Herald as the "poster girl for the on-the-clock cyber-slacking" that apparently infests our local governmental hackorama.

    Derjue, as I have told her before, doesn't do enough posting during the day; [...]

    Posted: October 28, 2009, 7:10am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Senate Debate, First Impressions

    Number of comments: 6

    First off, and most importantly, I give best tie to Capuano. (Unfair to Coakley? Perhaps. She can participate; if she chooses a blouse and pearl necklace that's her decision.) Other thoughts:

    --Clear winner in the debate: Scott Brown. The four Dems are tripping over each other to get as far left [...]

    Posted: October 26, 2009, 8:23pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Who Waits This Long?

    Number of comments: 2

    I was fascinated to see that Tom Menino just had a banner fortnight of fundraising, reporting $160,000 in campaign contributions between October 1 and 15 -- the bulk of it coming, by my count, from 269 people ponying up the legal maximum of $500. Fascinated, because I'm thinking: if you're going [...]

    Posted: October 22, 2009, 3:28pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • City Council Forums

    Number of comments: 14

    I'm a fan of single-issue candidate forums -- but that's probably because I see enough of the candidates to know their one- or two-minute responses to all the big issues. Anyway, there are a couple of forums for the at-large city council candidates coming up that you might want to [...]

    Posted: October 22, 2009, 9:30am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Flaherty Pulling Punches?

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I size up the mayoral race as we head to the home stretch. I find that even though all the insiders and pundits think Michael Flaherty is far behind Tom Menino and needs to throw [...]

    Posted: October 21, 2009, 5:48pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Coakley's Frontrunner Gauntlet

    Number of comments: 6

    When you're the hands-down frontrunner in the biggest political campaign going, you're going to get a lot of tough scrutiny from the press. Tom Reilly couldn't handle it; stories about the call to a DA on behalf of a friend, or about his lieutenant governor selection, unravelled him and led [...]

    Posted: October 21, 2009, 9:29am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • At-Large Cash For The Close

    It's been rough for these Boston City Council candidates trying to raise money -- which leaves them all straggling into the final stretch run with little to play with. Here's their cash on hand as of Oct. 15, according to the new campaign-finance reports:

    John Connolly: appr. $75,000 - $80,000 (he's [...]

    Posted: October 20, 2009, 6:08pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Globe Poll, Flaherty Internals At Odds

    Number of comments: 15

    The Boston Globe has the results of a new poll in the Sunday paper, which shows Tom Menino cruising to re-election: "Menino holds a lead of 52 percent to 32 percent over Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.," it says.

    But a poll conducted at the same time (earlier [...]

    Posted: October 18, 2009, 12:16am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Please Romney Indeed

    Number of comments: 1

    House Minority Leader Brad Jones just sent out an email invite for his Mass. Republican House PAC's big upcoming fundraiser w/ Mitt Romney. (Tuesday at the Taj Boston; $100 for the general reception, $500 for a private reception.) The PAC helps fund Republican house candidates.

    The email subject header seems to have left [...]

    Posted: October 16, 2009, 10:53am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Some Quick National GOP Items

    --Is Jodi Rell going to retire rather than seek another term as governor of Connecticut? Nearly non-existent fundraising is re-fueling the longstanding rumors. If so, that would mean all three New England Republican governors are on their way out next year: Jim Douglas is not seeking re-election in Vermont, [...]

    Posted: October 15, 2009, 11:10am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Brrrr... Must Be The Season Of Reform!

    Number of comments: 1

    Chilly weather greets the Hub of the Universe today, bringing to mind the line from Monty Python and the Holy Grail: Winter changed into spring, spring changed into summer, summer changed back into winter, and winter gave spring and summer a miss and went straight on into autumn.

    It also brings to [...]

    Posted: October 15, 2009, 7:41am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Alan Khazei's Longshot

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take a look at the Senate candidacy of City Year co-founder Alan Khazei. If there's one candidate who might capture the progressive grassroots activists, it's Khazei; but political observers say he's got no chance [...]

    Posted: October 14, 2009, 4:46pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Wait -- This Might Be Even Stupider

    Number of comments: 14

    While I was busy blogging earlier today about something stupid Martha Coakley said, her campaign sent out a press release touting an internal poll. The headline blares: "Martha Coakley Holds Sizable Primary Lead in Special Election for U.S. Senate."

    That headline has an important problematic grammatical issue, which I'll return to [...]

    Posted: October 07, 2009, 1:33pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • What's Wrong With Coakley's Brain?

    Number of comments: 6

    I happened to see today's Scot Lehigh column late last night, when the Globe posted it, and my initial reaction was, "What the hell is wrong with Martha Coakley's brain?" But I decided not to post right then, because sometimes things make more sense after a little sleep, some [...]

    Posted: October 07, 2009, 10:01am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • At-Large Campaign Funds, As They Pass The Prelim

    Number of comments: 9

    The second-half September campaign-finance reports are in and online for the 15 candidates for Boston City Council at-large. It's our first look at A) how much they each spent to get through the Sept. 22 preliminary election; B) how much they left in their accounts for the post-preliminary campaign; and [...]

    Posted: October 06, 2009, 4:25pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #8 -- Social Media For GOTV

    Number of comments: 1

    "NathanSpencer" asks, via Twitter appropriately:

    "Are tools like Twitter and Facebook really helping candidates GOTV? Who is using it best?"

    I've seen no evidence of it helping in any significant way with GOTV in any local elections, and have heard few if any convincing tales from elsewhere. I'd love to hear from [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 2:47pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #8 -- Capuano's Successor?

    Number of comments: 8

    "Ben" asks:

    "Let's imagine for a second that Capuano takes the senate seat. Besides Joe Kennedy's son and Mike Ross, have you heard rumblings of anyone else laying tentative plans for the MA-8th?"

    I haven't, but I have no doubt there are plenty of wheels spinning in people's heads. I've heard people [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 2:31pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #7 -- Balser vs. Warren

    Number of comments: 4

    "Alice Mitchell" asks:

    "What do you think about the Newton race now that it's down to Ruth Balser and Setti Warren?"

    It's a very interesting race, that I haven't followed closely enough for anyone to trust my prediction. Warren (w/ campaign mastermind Deb Shaw) has been very impressive, but I think ultimately Balser's [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 2:21pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #6 -- Favorite Staffs

    Here's a great question, from "Sammy":

    Who are your favorite political staffs to deal with, whether it be mayor's office, city council, state, etc?

    Before I answer, I want to say that I've just realized that our snazzy new blog format is not showing that I am indenting the questions in these [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 11:25am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #5 -- City Election Predictions

    "Ed" asks via email:

    Give us your predictions for the mayoral final (with percentages) and the order the At-Large candidates will finish.

    Menino 54% Flaherty 46%

    Connolly-Arroyo-Pressley-Murphy-Jackson-Kenneally-Bennett-Gonzalez

    [...]
    Posted: October 02, 2009, 11:18am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #4 -- Coakley And Emailgate

    Number of comments: 4

    The Qs keep coming! "Venkman" asks:

    Do you think emailgate will make its way into the Senate race? Could Coakley's dismissal of the issue become an issue?

    I think emailgate (the heavily reported issue surrounding missing emails within the Menino administration) has barely made its way into the mayoral race, beyond that [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 11:11am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #3 -- 2010 State Legislature Elections

    Number of comments: 2

    "Joel" asks:

    How many seats (if any) will the Mass GOP pick up in the legislature in 2010?

    That is a great question. Quick wild-guess prediction: they gain one in the senate, and five in the house. In other words, not a huge comeback, but at least a step in the right direction.

    They [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 10:55am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #2 -- Khazei's Chances

    Number of comments: 1

    "K B" asks:

    How does Khazei's $1.1 million raised by 9/30 affect the Senate race?  And is there ANY way he can surmount the name-recognition barrier?

    The first question really answers the latter: if this fundraising pace continues, then he can rapidly raise his name recognition.

    It's not yet clear to me [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 10:43am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Q&A #1 -- 2013 Mayoral

    Here we go, off and running with Ask Me Anything Day! First up, "Rob" asks:

    If Menino defeats Flaherty in November's election, does Flaherty become the immediate front-runner for the 2013 mayoral election? What are your thoughts on what Sam Yoon does? I'm also interested on which current candidates (Menino or [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 10:28am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Ask Me Anything Friday, 10/2

    Number of comments: 11

    There's plenty going on, in city, state, and national politics. So go ahead, ask me whatever you'd like and I'll give you my best answer, conjecture, theory, guess, prediction, analysis or opinion.

    Leave your question as a comment to this post, or in an email to dbernstein@phx.com, and I will [...]

    Posted: October 02, 2009, 7:59am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Debating Mano-a-Mayor

    Number of comments: 5

    We got our first one-on-one mayoral debate tonight. I thought Michael Flaherty was very good, but Tom Menino was quite good, and as far as I know he's holding the lead in the late innings, so I'd say the mayor came out fine.

    Speaking of innings, how psyched must Menino be [...]

    Posted: October 01, 2009, 9:43pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Kantor Leaves Mike Ross For Ayanna

    Boston City Council president Mike Ross confirms for me that his chief-of-staff, Reuben Kantor, is leaving to join the Ayanna Pressley campaign for at-large city council. 

    Kantor, who joined the political arena just a few years ago, has quickly become one of the city's top progressive operatives. "Ayanna will really [...]

    Posted: October 01, 2009, 12:06pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Matt O'Malley Joining Pagliuca Team

    Number of comments: 1

    Matt O'Malley is leaving his post as MassEquality's political director to join the Steve Pagliuca Senate campaign, as its state-wide field co-ordinator. A source in the Pagliuca campaign confirms that O'Malley will begin working for them immediately, while phasing out of his MassEquality position over the next week.

    O'Malley, the [...]

    Posted: October 01, 2009, 10:18am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- At-Large Final Four

    Number of comments: 2

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I analyze the at-large Boston City Council race coming out ofthe preliminary election, which narrowed the field to eight. I find that local politicos believe that -- unlike other recent at-large races -- the top [...]

    Posted: September 30, 2009, 3:30pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • (Some) Women For Coakley

    Number of comments: 5

    Enthusiasm from supporters was high this morning at the Martha Coakley press conference, where EMILY's List, the Massachusetts Women's Political Caucus (MWPC), and a bunch of female state legislators formally expressed their endorsement of the Attorney General in her campaign for the US Senate. Enthusiasm from the press was perhaps [...]

    Posted: September 30, 2009, 1:16pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Sources: Yoon To Join Flaherty "Ticket"

    Number of comments: 15

    According to sources inside the campaign, mayoral candidate Michael Flaherty will hold a press conference with Sam Yoon tomorrow morning, at which they will announce the formation of a Flaherty/Yoon "ticket."

    This is far more than an endorsement. I don't know all the details, but Yoon will be campaigning as Flaherty's [...]

    Posted: September 28, 2009, 7:59pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Comrade Conyers

    Number of comments: 1

    As this blog's readers know, I've been an avid follower of the "Comrade of the Month" award instituted this year by conservative advocacy group Club for Growth. So I've been quite frustrated this summer. First, they gave the June award to all 219 House members who voted in favor [...]

    Posted: September 24, 2009, 2:36pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Senator Kirk; Plus, The WBZ/Suffolk Poll

    Number of comments: 2

    --On September 1st, I predicted on Twitter and Facebook that Paul Kirk would be the temporary Senate appointee -- I believe I was the first to publicly float his name for it. The next day a Boston Phoenix editorial advocating Kirk for the position went online. (To the best [...]

    Posted: September 24, 2009, 10:32am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Winners & Losers

    Number of comments: 15

    My early thoughts on today's Boston preliminary election results:

    --Winner: Once and future Mayor Thomas M. Menino. I wrote that he wanted to get above 50%. It didn't look like he was going to make it. But damned if he didn't pull it off, just barely. A very impressive victory showing off [...]

    Posted: September 22, 2009, 11:34pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • 6:00 Update

    61,090 votes through 6:00pm, so still on target for roughly 75,000. Voting is strong in Southie, Eastie, West Roxbury, Savin Hill area. There seems to be a little life in the Grove Hall/Franklin Field/Fields Corner sections of the black community. Not so much in Roxbury, despite the Chuck Turner primary.  [...]

    Posted: September 22, 2009, 6:58pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • 3:00 Update

    Number of comments: 2

    According to Election Department figures obtained by the Phoenix, 42,527 had voted in Boston as of 3:00, keeping the city on pace for roughly 75,000 ballots by my projection. 

    That 42,527 is 87% of the 48,870 who had voted by 3:00 in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.

    South Boston's Wards [...]

    Posted: September 22, 2009, 4:12pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Noon Updates

    Number of comments: 1

    As of noon, 27,495 people have voted in Boston. Ward 18 (incl. Hyde Park) seems to be catching back up to where it should be -- while Ward 20 (West Roxbury) is dropping off its earlier pace.

    Here's an interesting, if perhaps meaningless, statistic: by my count, as of noon 13,880 [...]

    Posted: September 22, 2009, 1:03pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Early Vote Analysis

    As of 9:00 this morning, 13,171 people had voted in Boston, according to Boston Election Department data obtained by the Phoenix. 

    That suggests total turnout a little closer to the gubernatorial primary of September 2006 (close to 90,000) than to the last city-wide municipal preliminary in September 2005 (just over 40,000). [...]

    Posted: September 22, 2009, 10:39am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • At-Large Notes And Thoughts

    Number of comments: 6

    13 hours until polls open in Boston....

    --In 2005, there were 15 names on the ballot for at-large. But the bottom 7, who were knocked out, were non-factors: combined they received just over 13% of the total votes cast. (There were 40,802 ballots, with 128,246 total votes.) The top vote-getter in the prelim (Flaherty) took [...]

    Posted: September 21, 2009, 5:43pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Globe Endorses At-Large

    Number of comments: 8

    The Globe did indeed endorse in the at-large council prelim today, as I so brilliantly foresaw yesterday. They went the Herald three better, picking eight candidates -- which kinda makes sense because eight candidates will get through, but kinda doesn't because voters get to pick four on their ballot.

    It's [...]

    Posted: September 19, 2009, 7:18am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Henriquez, & The At-Larges

    Number of comments: 6

    Carlos Henriquez got a Boston Globe endorsement today for his district council bid against Chuck Turner, which is surprising not because they picked him, but because the paper decided to endorse for the preliminary election.

    This probably means the Globe will do at-large council endorsements too, most likely tomorrow. This could [...]

    Posted: September 18, 2009, 3:24pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Selvig Punks Himself?

    Number of comments: 5

    From time to time in politics there's an accusation of subliminal ad messaging -- usually that some negative word or phrase on screen briefly overlaps an image of the opponent's face, in a way that you can't see unless you go frame-by-frame.

    Well, I'm sorry to say that Allston-Brighton District Council [...]

    Posted: September 17, 2009, 5:05pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Capuano & Pagliuca -- Sites & Ads

    Number of comments: 1

    Steve Pagliuca, who officially announced his candidacy for US Senate today, also launched a web site to help introduce himself to the voters of the Commonwealth, who have little idea who he is. The site seems heavy on Celtics green (he is co-owner of the team), and includes a [...]

    Posted: September 17, 2009, 3:16pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Madame President Fundraiser

    Number of comments: 1

    The Martha Coakley for Senate campaign announced the other day that state senate president Therese Murray will serve as Honorary Finance Chair. That means that she's the lead fundraiser -- in name, if not in day-to-day activity -- for an operation trying to raise several million dollars in a couple [...]

    Posted: September 16, 2009, 4:21pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Senate Race Overview

     In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I have an article taking stock of the field of candidates shaping up for the special US Senate election to succeed Ted Kennedy. Talk about a moving target; damn candidates kept moving in and out [...]

    Posted: September 16, 2009, 2:29pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Bad Grades For Menino?

    Number of comments: 1

    The latest MCAS results, released by the state this morning, have a lot of data in them so it is a little unfair to draw conclusions on a quick scan. That said, it looks on quick scan that the numbers may not be helpful to Mayor Tom Menino.

    Here's a [...]

    Posted: September 16, 2009, 12:08pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Herald's At-Large Endorsements, And Other Notes

    Number of comments: 2

    --The Boston Herald has endorsed five at-large council candidates, which is kind of odd considering voters can select four, but I have no problem with it. Along with incumbents Steve Murphy and John Connolly, they chose Ayanna Pressley, Ego Ezedi, and Robert Fortes. The two white Irish guys make perfect [...]

    Posted: September 16, 2009, 6:47am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • They're In, They're Out, They're All About

    I'll have an overview of the US Senate race in this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- and I wish the damn players would stand still long enough for me to get a snapshot.

    Stephen Lynch unexpectedly announced this morning that he will not run (must have been a [...]

    Posted: September 15, 2009, 2:12pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • City Hall Emails

    Number of comments: 4

    I haven't commented much about the vanishing City Hall email story, because frankly I've been busy with too many things. Seriously, could there be any more major political offices up for grabs in the area? (Speaking of which, can we get a little bit of love and attention for tomorrow's [...]

    Posted: September 14, 2009, 5:16pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Mayoral Forum Tonight

    Number of comments: 1

    Tonight I am moderating a mayoral candidates forum for the Ward 5 and Ward 4 Democratic Committee. All are welcome to attend -- 7:30pm at the Boston Architectural College on Newbury Street. It is my understanding that all four candidates will be there.

    [...]
    Posted: September 14, 2009, 11:19am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Political Theater

    Number of comments: 1

    Man, I do love me some political theater. I went looking for some at an at-large Boston City Council forum earlier this evening at Roxbury Community College, but the poorly-promoted event had more candidates on stage than voters in the audience (this may actually have been literally true, once you [...]

    Posted: September 09, 2009, 9:26pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Menino And The Prelim

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I have an article looking at what's at stake for Tom Menino in the upcoming preliminary election. Sure, he's going to cruise to victory, and a spot on the final ballot. But what will it [...]

    Posted: September 09, 2009, 4:44pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Crazy About Khazei?

    Number of comments: 4

    Last week, in a "Who might run" Senate overview post, I suggested that we might see: 

    A Chris Gabrieli type. Massachusetts has got civic-minded, policy-minded people outside the elected-office circuit, loaded with money. I don't see Gabrieli as a candidate for this one (although who knows?), but I've got a couple of [...]

    Posted: September 09, 2009, 6:22am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • At-Large Money Watch For August

    Number of comments: 1

    The at-large candidates for Boston City Council are heading into the final stretch to the preliminary election -- time to spend some of what little they've got. In past years, challengers have sometimes erred in spending too heavily on the prelim their first time out (Pat White and John Connolly, [...]

    Posted: September 08, 2009, 10:53am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • The Coakley Domino Effect

    Number of comments: 4

    Martha Coakley announced her candidacy for US Senate today, to nobody's surprise. Which, for political junkies like us, begs the question of what happens with the Attorney General office if she wins.

    First off, if Coakley wins the election, then her first assistant becomes acting AG. That's David Friedman, who is [...]

    Posted: September 03, 2009, 12:32pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Strong Debate For Yoon

    Number of comments: 6

    My impressions of last night's mayoral debate:

    --I thought Yoon had the best showing. He was on-message, respectfully aggressive in criticizing the mayor, and was the only one on stage showing any personality at all. That said, I thought he was frequently unclear about what he was specifically talking about (he [...]

    Posted: September 03, 2009, 10:07am EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Menino Will Debate Tomorrow, Too

    Number of comments: 2

    Tonight is the first mayoral debate, on WBZ at 7:00. (Postponed from last week, due to the death of Ted Kennedy.) But the Phoenix has learned that all four candidates also intend to participate in tomorrow's MassVote mayoral forum at the Reggie Lewis Center.

    Mayor Tom Menino had not originally agreed [...]

    Posted: September 02, 2009, 2:02pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • New In The Phoenix -- Giant Shadows In The Senate Race

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write about a few interesting angles relating to the race for the vacant US Senate seat in Massachusetts.

    First, I suggest that the biggest emphasis during the Ted Kennedy memorials was on his stellar constituent-services [...]

    Posted: September 02, 2009, 1:05pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Senate: Who Might Run

    Number of comments: 5

    Everybody and his brother is pontificating about who is or isn't going to run for the US Senate seat. (See The Fix's version, for example.) The problem: they know nothing, and I know everything. Plus, I make the snarkiest comments. So, here's my take as of this moment, with [...]

    Posted: September 01, 2009, 3:10pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • GOP 2012 Pres. Rankings, Updated 9/1!

    Number of comments: 6

    It’s time for my two-month update on the 2012 GOP Presidential contenders, but it’s been a quiet period compared with the hyperactive previous two months. Maybe that’s because of the congressional recess. Or maybe it’s the lack of crazy sex scandals.Anyway, my top five remain the same as the last update. (Here are [...]

    Posted: September 01, 2009, 12:31pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein
  • Top 10 Unlikely Senate Appointees

    Number of comments: 2

    Governor Deval Patrick is holding a 3:00 press conference today to discuss the US Senate vacancy. I expect him to announce the dates for the general and primary elections, and to discuss his desire for a law that lets him appoint a temporary Senator. I don't expect him to say [...]

    Posted: August 31, 2009, 1:52pm EDT
    by David S. Bernstein

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