Well, intestinal surgery couldn’t do it, a job change couldn’t do it, and an incredibly depressing midterm election (from my perspective) couldn’t do it.
But the cutest baby in the world could.
I’ve slowly come to the realization that I can’t be a good attorney, a good husband, and a good father, [...]
Fletcher loses to Beshear, 61%-39%. The entire downstate ticket gets dragged down with him, except maybe Ag Comm Richie Farmer. To answer your question, no, I don’t think this has signficance for ‘08. This is different than Louisiana because the shift is due to a corrupt and ineffective incumbent, not [...]
I would constantly refresh the LA Times website. I’ve been getting pinged all morning with hints something is going to break, but no one seems to know what.
My guess is that it has something to do, not with a candidate, but with a candidate’s spouse. This would be the [...]
An epidemic of organ failures devastates the planet, killing tens of millions. Panic erupts and scientists feverishly make plans for a massive organ harvest. Out of the tragedy, a savior emerges- GeneCo. A multi-billion dollar biotech company, GeneCo manufactures salvation- for a price: [...]
I’m a little bit late to this party, but Bobby Jindal won a clear majority of the vote (54%) in his race for Governor. He becomes, I believe, the first Republican since Reconstruction to win the Governorship without a runoff. Only a single Democrat running statewide avoided a runoff. That [...]
The good news for Republicans is that Tom Davis has decided to pass on a run for Senate. The bad news for Republicans is that Tom Davis has decided to pass on a run for Senate.
The reason that it is bad news for Republicans is pretty obvious — it [...]
Bob Kerrey decides not to run for Nebraska Senate. This moves to Likely R. Democrats still have some potentially strong candidates in Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and 2006 NE-03 nominee Scott Kleeb, but either would start out as a severe underdog against Johanns or Bruning, especially in a Presidential [...]
Pay attention here, because this might well be the last time you read a title like that here. Once you get past the first two paragraphs, its pretty spot-on what my view of this election is. And a very important observation, I think:
So as just about everyone knows, in the Genesis story, Noah gathers a pair of all the animals on the Earth, and puts them on the big boat (Gen 7:9) (”There went in two and two unto Noah into the ark, the male and the female, as God had commanded [...]
Thanks to Jay Cost at Realclearpolitics (whose HorseRaceBlog obviously is a daily must-read) for reprinting an e-mail I sent to him, and linking my site.
For the new readers, this site is presently enjoying the “off-year” election downtime (and I am not blogging as much since I am adjusting [...]
The good thing about this site is that it is hosted by a friend who runs a very high traffic site for free. So when this site is busy or gets linked, it doesn’t go down. And I can take up a ginormous amount of hard drive space with my [...]
Looks like Tsongas wins it 51%-46%. Turnout was around 100,000 — not atrociously low, but about half those that voted last time that Meehan had serious opposition in an off-year election (2002).
As it stands, its a pretty good showing for Ogonowski in what is otherwise a pretty grim-looking year [...]
In MA-05 today, Ogonowski loses by eleven. Republicans decalare victory and try to seize momentum heading toward November 08. Democrats roll their eyes, and continue raising triple the amount of money Republicans are raising. If the race is much closer though, Republicans will have a reasonable template for mounting a [...]
As they say in Shelbyville, "There’s a doin’s a-transpiring!" The big stories in the Republican race are obviously the entrance of Fred Thompson and the surprisingly strong showing of Mike Huckabee at Ames. But before we get to that, let’s look at the bottom of the barrel.
Democrats are in an interesting position. On the one hand, their clear frontrunner is their best candidate to win, even if it will be ugly. Hillary Clinton has proved herself to be tough, resilient, and most importantly, disciplined. She isn’t likely to make a mistake, and this year, that might [...]
If there’s one bright spot for Republicans this year, its that Larry LaRocco seems poised to get the 40% in his Senate run that he got in his Lieutenant Governor’s run last year, at least according to SurveyUSA. His numbers are more-or-less static against a field of Republicans; the [...]
The folks over at RedState are cheering because Senator Hagel is retiring. We’ll see if they still are come November of ‘08. This takes yet another safe Republican seat off the table and puts it potentially at risk.
A lot here depends on the players. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey is [...]
Yeah okay. Its old news. I just made the icon earlier this week and never got around to using it. What is kind of interesting is that Craig’s advisors now say that he was going to retire before the scandal. My gut instinct is “yeah right,” but [...]
In terms of the impact on the actual election, this probably takes Idaho off the table for now. There are still scenarios where it becomes competitive — if Bill Sali were [...]
Sen. John Warner just announced his retirement, as was widely expected. This turns what would have been a safe seat for Republicans into a potentially very tough hold.
Where things go from now depend on the decisions of a few very powerful people. The first and most important decision will [...]
According to SurveyUSA, Hillary leads Giuliani by 3 in Minnesota, is tied in Wisconsin, and leads by 12 in Iowa. Interestingly, SUSA is showing almost identical results to the Rasmussen Wisconsin poll. It really may be that the entire country is in play in 2008. Which is [...]
This post grows out of a series of e-mail conversations I’ve had with Kavon Nikrad of Race42008 and a couple of other elections junkies. It will be cross-posted at Race42008. It is intended as a partial response to those who think the GOP is doomed for the next generation. [...]
I generally don’t pay attention to electoral college polls this far out. At this point in the ‘04 election, George W. Bush was leading the Democratic challengers in Massachusetts and New York. We know how that turned out. In the summer of 2000, Bush was leading Gore by double-digits in [...]
Indy Voter over at CHT reports that we have our newest member of Congress: Democrat Laura Richardson. Richardson, who will now represent the Long Beach-based 37th District formerly represented by Juanita Millender-McDonald, easily dispatched the Republicans, Green, and Libertarian candidate with 67% (to Republican’s 25%).
Every ambassador to South Korea in the past twenty years has signed an op-ed urging Congress to pass the South Korea-US free trade agreement. This is unsurprising, as there is, and has been for the past, oh 200 years or so, a consensus among economists that free trade is [...]
Well, it’s all over but the shouting, and there is plenty of that going on. I don’t know how much I really have to add to the analysis, but here’s my take on a few key points:
How big a win for Romney? It’s a win, and that’s important, but its [...]
I will be in the hospital for most of the day tomorrow, and probably won’t have much to offer in the way of commentary. Just remember, Ames is a test of organization and dedication of supporters. This year, it tells us a lot more about who stays in the second [...]
Two sample fact patterns for you all. There are no right answers, but I’m curious about your gut reactions.
(1) Husband and Wife (”H” and “W”) are divorced. They own two houses. W is given a share of both houses in the divorce agreement. H is also ordered to pay a [...]
The Democratic race is in many ways the opposite of the Republican race. While the Republican race is still very much in flux, the Democratic race has moved very little in the past eight months. The only remarkable thing is that Edwards has had something of a decline in his [...]
The North Carolina legislature’s attempt to assign the state’s electoral votes by congressional district appears to be dead.
North Carolina came very close to reforming its Electoral College system. The way it would work would be for the state winner to take the two votes allocated based on the Senate [...]
My wife is having a c-section on Thursday, so I’ve been scarce, and will probably continue to be scarce. I’ll try to get the Democratic standings up before then (and fix the formatting here).
This is the strongest Republican field in years. Five candidates have substantial executive experience. The front-runners consist of a Governor of the second-bluest state in the nation, America’s Mayor, a charismatic outsider from Tennessee, a maverick Senator with significant across-the-aisle appeal, and a former House Speaker. In previous years, the [...]
Mugabe’s prescriptions: More nationalization and government control of the economy to deal with those evil companies (and the West) trying to bring down his rule:
Mugabe opened a new session of parliament Tuesday by saying his government was battling to turn around the economy, which he says is a victim of [...]
As I mentioned before, I don’t really do primary polling because it is so mercurial. I also don’t spend too much time paying attention to national polling for the general election, because (a) that’s not how we elect a President, and (b) that’s not how we elect a President.
If my calculations are correct, longtime MEA contributor and fellow Duke Law alum Chris R is getting ready to take the North Carolina bar tomorrow. By the way, I hear the NC Bar is way easy, and only true slackers fail. Heh.
I haven’t been doing primary polls because it’s really, really hard to gauge primary results by polling. The problem with primary polls, as opposed to senate or electoral college polls, is that they generally aren’t independent of each other. That is, how someone votes in the Virginia Senate race doesn’t [...]
A pregnant woman in inflation-ridden Zimbabwe gave birth in a queue for groceries rather than surrender her place to other shoppers, Zimbabwe’s state newspaper the Herald has reported.
In an indication of growing desperation among Zimbabweans, the woman was reported to have [...]
In case you haven’t heard, a bunch of rock stars and some libertarian airline executive who owns his own Caribbean island have convinced a bunch of elderly politicians to come out of retirement and come up with wise, trenchant analyses of the world’s problems for our mutual benefit. The [...]
By dropping out of the race for President. There may well be no posting this week, as I struggle to sort out how this affects the dynamic of the Republican race for President.
Word is that Gilmore is considering running for Senate or Governor in Virginia. To put it nicely, [...]
I’m still a G-man, but there’s no denying Romney’s leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. If those hold, it is hard to see how he fails to win the nomination. He’s got the looks, the money, the charisma, and the organization to win this thing. Now, he’s got the early [...]
Shockingly, President Mugabe’s appeals to his countrymen’s better nature have not gone over well . . .
President Robert Mugabe’s regime has ordered all retailers to cut fuel prices by 60 per cent, a move which forces them to sell petrol at a loss. As a result, service stations [...]
Apparently John McCain is none too happy about the status of his campaign:
John McCain’s campaign manager and chief strategist are gone from their leadership roles, according to two officials with knowledge of the staff changes.
One official said Terry Nelson resigned as campaign manager for the Republican presidential candidate and [...]
Sen. David Vitter, the first popularly elected Republican Senator from Louisiana ever, showed up in the DC Madam’s phone book. Vitter is a Giuliani endorser; indeed his endorsement was seen as a major boost for Giuliani among conservatives. This, of course, comes after Rudy’s South Carolina campaign chairman [...]
Cars no longer line up at gas stations because there’s no fuel for sale. Gone are the meat, bread and cornmeal that Zimbabweans count on for their meals. Two weeks after the government ordered price cuts in response to the country’s rampant inflation, the economy is [...]
Robert Mugabe has decided to fight his country’s rampant inflation using the same schemes America experimented with in the 1970s — wage and price controls:
President Mugabe has ordered petrol stations to slash the price of fuel by 70 per cent in a desperate bid to bring down the world’s [...]
ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos Reports: Though often regarded as a longshot candidate for president, Republican Ron Paul tells ABC News that he has an impressive $2.4 million in cash on hand after raising an equal amount during the second quarter, [...]
Jeebus. Just under $500,000 in the second quarter. There are Senate candidates who have raised more than that.
And the Senate is exactly what Thompson should do. He’s a cute presidential candidate in kind of a befuddled grandfather kind of way, but that doesn’t cut it. Go home, Governor, and [...]
Just in, Mitt Romney reported total receipts of $20.5 million in the second quarter, with $14 million in primary contributions. 80,0000 total donors, with 50,000 new donors. He has $12 million cash on hand. That’s really pretty spectacular for a candidate who has had to raise himself from almost zero [...]
One thing that has changed in my hiatus from blogging is my opinion of Mike Huckabee. As you will recall, Huckabee was listed as someone I absolutely could not vote for, and would even consider outright voting for the Democrat over (if the Dems nominated someone like Richardson).
$11 million, with $2M cash-on-hand is just not going to cut it. The campaign is already making serious cuts in staff, and the campaign director is working for free.
In a way, this is really too bad. I wouldn’t have supported McCain in the primary this year (though had I [...]
For those who are interested, every year at term’s end, Dahlia Lithwick and former Clinton Solicitor General Walter Dellinger do a back-and-forth about the Supreme Court’s decisions. Now, I had Dellinger for Con Law II in law school, and the fact that he is plainly the more conservative of the [...]
This excerpt from a BBC interview with a Taliban leader is too good for words (please note: There is no hidden political message here, this isn’t a War on Terror post meant to describe how wonderful the Bush Administration is and how we’re really winning in Iraq, or meant [...]
“The seat was once thought to be a toss-up, and the Democrats nominated Dave Freudenthal, their popular sitting governor. Freudenthal had won his current term with 70 percent of the vote — the best margin of victory any Democratic nominee for that office ever had. But recruiting him proved to [...]
With today’s decision, there are three decisions remaining at the Court: The high school decisions, the decision re the execution of the mentally ill, and the antitrust case.
With today’s decisions, we can expect one of these cases to be authored by the Chief, one of these cases to be authored [...]
I can’t just leave this with one post. Since I probably won’t be back full time for a while, I thought I’d leave you all with my predictions for who is writing the remaining cases on the Supreme Court’s docket:
Jeff. County/PICS — This case is the big one, involving the [...]
As I think you can see, most of my blog time has been devoted to working with my site designer, and researching races before I start blogging on them. I hope you’ll take this site upgrade as a show of good faith that I really will be back. Let me [...]
Here’s Buddie at 19 1/2 weeks. Quite a change from 10 weeks ago! S/he was having a good ol’ time in there, rolling around, playing . . . pretty incredible! I thought I saw Buddie, but my wife thought she saw Buddy, so who knows (If you are an ultrasound [...]
I haven’t had a chance to read this article, so I have no idea how this protrays the Administration. But I have it on pretty good authority that it is spot-on. What can I say, 17 lawyers from my old firm are in the Bush Administration, plus I worked [...]
Just to let you know, this is not a Daly-esque abandonment of blogging. FWIW, after the ‘04 election, I completely abandoned blogging from about May-November. Right now:
(1) I’m an elections blog, not a policy or muckraking (or in the case of a GOPer, an anti-muckraking) blog, and there’s no real [...]
Sorry guys, it is the end of our fiscal year, and things are crazy around here. The new FY should bring more posting. But I have to note that the word is that John Edwards will be suspending his campaign due to a recurrance of his wife’s breast cancer. [...]
Looks like you need an invite. If you’re interested in playing, shoot me an e-mail to Horace@myelection[etc], and I’ll shoot you an invite tonight or tomorrow. Right now it is just me and BobH, so your chances for fame and glory are pretty good!
I’ve been swamped over the past week trying to keep my pro bono client from losing her kids and setting some cases for trial. I haven’t checked comments here, much less posted (if you’re in the 1,447 comments awaiting moderation, my apologies, but then again, 1,444 of those will be [...]
One of the most interesting storylines to my mind in the primaries is Obama’s problems with African American voters. I was skeptical about this at first, but several friends with close ties to African American politics have told me that the distrust and distrust of the child of a white [...]
Riffing off something Frank wrote in the comments, whom do you all think would be the best Veep choices for the various Presidential candidates? You can write about however many or whomever candidates you want, but only the BEST Veep choice per candidate.
For me, Giuliani-Thompson would be better than Giuliani-Huckabee. [...]
The latest Franklin & Marshall Keystone Poll shows that, despite Dubya having a 31% approval rating in the state, Rudy Giuliani beats Barack Obama 52%-32% and HRC 53%-37%. With McCain it is tighter, 43%-37% and 45%-41%. HRC has a 32%-46% fav-unfav rating, Giuliani is at 52%-18%, Obama is 31%-15%, [...]
(1) At this point, who do you most hope your party nominates (this does not lock you into future defense of this candidate). Independents can pick one from either or both candidates.
(2) Among the major candidates, whom do you most hope the other side nominates, because you think they will [...]
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut told the Politico on Thursday that he has no immediate plans to switch parties but suggested that Democratic opposition to funding the war in Iraq might change his mind.
I don’t think this will happen, but if it does, would the Club for Growth [...]
The WaPo reports that Democratic donors are becoming increasingly polarized between Hillary and Obama, with the predictable result that the two candidates are beginning to mix it upa bit.
All of this leads me to wonder if we aren’t seeing some foreshawdowing of 2004, where Iowa frontrunners [...]
Tom Vilsack drops out of the Democratic race for President, presumably because he noticed that he had to win Iowa and fare well in New Hampshire to have any chance of winning, and that neither was particularly likely.
The big winner here is probably Obama and/or Edwards, as Vilsack was [...]
A few weeks ago, I commented on Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-MN) high approval rating. I was met with skepticism when I said that probably made him the favorite for re-election.
The first polls bear this out. He defeats Comedian/Air America host Al Franken 57%-35%, and attorney Mike Ciresi 57%-34%. [...]
As Caroline points out in the comments, Sen. John Sidney McCain (R-Media) has opted out of federal funding for the 2008 election.
This is a tough situation for the Senator. On the one hand, just because you favor campaign finance reform doesn’t mean that you have to run your campaigns [...]
Just caught the flash on CNN, and was simultaneously e-mailed by a number of people, including my wife and best man from my wedding. Condolences to the Norwood family.
